New England Vs. Kansas City – Week 4 Monday Night Football Betting Trends

NFL - Kansas City Chiefs

New England Vs. Kansas City – Week 4 Monday Night Football Betting Trends

The 1-2 Kansas City Chiefs will host the 2-1 New England Patriots, who are 3.5 point road betting favorites, in the first primetime game from Arrowhead Stadium of the 2014 NFL betting season and first Monday Night Football game since week 8 of the 2011 season.

The Chiefs enter this week 4 MNF matchup hoping to build off a strong showing last Sunday against the Miami Dolphins in hopes of pushing their record to 2-2.

The Patriots will be looking to make a statement game as fans, pundits and oddsmakers alike are beginning to question if this New England teams is still among the AFC’s elite after this lackluster start to the season.

Date: Sept. 29, 2014
Start Time: 8:30 p.m. ET
Location: Kansas City, Missouri
Stadium: Arrowhead Stadium
Live StreamWatch ESPN
Radio:For Chiefs, click here.  For Patriots, click here.
Point Spread: Patriots (-3.5)
Moneyline: KC: 160, NE: -180
Game Total: 45.0

The Chiefs enter the showdown with their passing offense ranked 25th in the NFL. They will counter a Patriots defense that is ranked number one against the pass.

In three-starts this season, Chiefs quarterback Alex Smith has thrown for 643 yards with four touchdowns and three interceptions. He has also rushed for 95 yards on 13 carries. Kansas City has converted on six of nine trips in the red-zone this year.

Patriots quarterback Tom Brady needs 219 passing yards to become the sixth player in league history with 50,000 yards.

Head-to-Head Betting Trends

With the trade of offensive guard Logan Mankins to Tampa Bay and more importantly the loss of the offensive line coach Dante Scarnecchia (retired), the Patriots’ problems start on how to protect Brady. He has been sacks seven times (tied for 7th in the NFL) and has been ‘hit as he throws’ five times in the games (most by any QB in the league).

Center Ryan Wendell (knee) was taken off the injury report after missing the past two games. His return gives New England some flexibility up front. Earlier this week, Bill Belichick said Wendell has the capability of playing both center and guard, so if the Patriots don’t like what’s happening on the interior line — and they can’t possibly be thrilled with how things have gone— Wendell could figure into the rotation Monday. Rookie center Bryan Stork, who has seen action as a back-up in the past two games, could be due for an expanded role, too.

If either Stork or Wendell see increased time at center, the Patriots could move Dan Connolly to guard and bump either Jordan Devey or Marcus Cannon out of the lineup.

Brady is yet to throw an interception this season, but he has only recorded 3 TDs passes. His only trustable weapon is WR Julian Eldeman who leads the team with 22 receptions, twice as much as TE Rob Gronkowski, who is second.

The good news for the Patriots is history is on their side as Brady is 4-1 in five starts against the Kansas City Chiefs, posting an 110.0 passer rating with 8 TDs and 5 INTs. On Monday Night Football, Brady has been money in the bank winning 13 of 18 games with 42 TDS and 15 INTs, and a 101.5 passer rating in those games.

Chiefs QB Alex Smith has never faced the New England Patriots before, but he has a 4-0 record against the AFC East teams with 6 TDs & 0 INTs, including the victory over Miami last week. Smith has played six games on MNF with a 4-2 record, 7 TDs & 4 INTs and an 81.1 passer rating.

The turnover battle is imperative, especially with these two teams. The Patriots are 69-6 in the Brady/Belichick era when they don’t commit a single turnover. They’re turnover-free in the past two games.

The Chiefs are currently the only NFL team that hasn’t forced a single turnover. That’s particularly amazing because, last season, they forced 36 of them — second in the league — and scored seven defensive touchdowns. If you want a reason for their 2-14 to 11-5 turnaround, look no further than those two stats.

Against The Spread Betting Trends

The Patriots are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 Monday games, 7-0 ATS in their last 7 games in Week 4, 6-2 ATS in their last 8 games following a, ATS loss, and 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games after allowing less than 15 points in their previous game.

The Chiefs are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games after scoring more than 30 points in their previous game, 0-6 ATS in their last 6 home games, 3-7 ATS vs. a team with a winning record, and 1-4 ATS in their last 5 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.

In the head to head matchups, New England is 5-1 SU in its last six games when playing Kansas City, and they have covered the spread in seven of the last 10 meetings.

New England Patriots at Kansas City Chiefs
The New England Patriots are 3.5 point road favorites on Monday Night Football against the Kansas City Chiefs.
Starts: 09/29/2014 7:30PM
Arrowhead Stadium, 1 Arrowhead Dr.
Kansas City, Missouri