These divisional rivals are going in opposite directions. After a season-opening victory, the Jets have lost five in a row and are 0-5-1 against the spread and 1-5 straight up through the first six games of the season. The Jets will hope to cover the NFL betting spread for the first time in 2014 on Thursday Night Football as 9.5 point underdogs against the home team New England Patriots.
New England, meanwhile, was taking a lot of heat after a Week 4 Monday night blowout loss to the Chiefs, but has bounced back with two straight dominating performances against the Cincinnati Bengals and the Buffalo Bills (combined score: 80-39).
During that stretch, QB Tom Brady has thrown six TDs without a single interception. The Patriots are tops in the AFC East now with four wins and two losses, but will go to face the New York Jets without several key pieces: LB Jerod Mayo (knee) and RB Stevan Ridley (knee), both likely facing season ending injuries.
— New England Patriots (@Patriots) October 15, 2014
After beating the Oakland Raiders in week one, the NY Jets have lost their last five, including a 31-17 home lost against the Denver Broncos last Sunday. The Jets defense, which is arguably the highlight of the team, has allowed 31, 27, 24, 31 and 31 points in those five defeats.
The NFL betting odds opened with the Patriots as 10 point favorites for Thursday Night; it’s the second time New England is listed as double digit favorites this season. They failed to cover the 14.5 point spread at home against the Oakland Raiders back in September.
The Historical NFL Betting Trends Do Not Favor The Jets
Since Tom Brady took the starting QB job for the New England Patriots in 2001, he has dominated the teams inside the AFC East division, posting 60 wins against 16 losses. 18 of those 60 wins came against the NY Jets and the only six were defeats. Brady has also thrown for 32 TDs and just 11 picks on his career against the Jets.
— New York Jets (@nyjets) October 15, 2014
The only positive note for the Jets is that they split the 2013 series against the Patriots, making Geno Smith is one of the few Jets QBs that actually has beaten Tom Brady and the Patriots.
Can The Jets Offense Cover A Double Digit Betting Spread?
The problem for the Jets is that Geno wasn’t the catalyst to the win against the Patriots last year. Geno is 1-1 against the Pats with 1 TD and 4 INTs and currently leads the worst passing offense in the entire NFL, averaging just 182.2 passing yards per game.
The Patriots defense has been particularly good against average quarterbacks having underwhelmed when facing Miami, Minnesota, Oakland, Kansas City, Cincinnati and Buffalo, but has the fourth best passing defense in the NFL entering week seven, allowing just 208.5 yards per game. Throw in a seventh best 15 sacks by the Pats and Geno may have time to throw.
Against The Spread Betting Trends
As mentioned, this is the second time the Patriots are double digit favorites in the season. Against Oakland they were 14.5 points favorites and ended up winning by just seven points; however, the Pats offense has come to life over the last two weeks, scoring 80 points in the last two games, compared to the 80 combined points they had in the first four weeks of the season.
New England is 6-13 ATS in their last 19 games when playing at home against NY Jets, including two ATS losses last season.