NFC Championship Betting Totals – Bet the Over or the Under?Noah Williams
Despite the matchup itself, the NFC Championship game between the Niners and Seahawks has one very difficult side to get your head around. Do you bet the over or the under on that staggeringly low 39.0 point NFL betting total? Combined, these two teams went 14-18 OVER/UNDER this season. If you’re looking to stack a parlay beyond the pair of game lines, you’re going to have to consider the totals this weekend.
Seattle’s last six games have all hit the under. They’ve averaged a combined total of just 33.5 points against an average total of 43.7. Because they’re the best defensive scoring team in the league, they usually don’t face very high totals, and only faced two 45+ totals all season.
However, it’s not that simple with a team like Seattle. This defense allowed a league best 14.4 points against all season, and held three teams to single-digits in their last 8 games, which includes a shutout of the Giants. In fact just one team – the Colts – scored more than 25+ points on them all season. The problem for those that bet the over or the under in the NFC Championship is that Seattle has a top-10 offense which scored 26.1 points per game, and they’re more than capable of scoring over 30 points if given the opportunity.
Standing in their way will be the San Francisco 49ers who have gone 3-6 O/U in their past 9 games. They ended the year with the third best scoring defense, allowing just 17.0 points against on average and the 11th ranked scoring offense with 25.4 points per game. They’re riding an eight game winning streak where they’ve averaged 25.6 points per game as well.
The head-to-head history between these two division rivals doesn’t yield any real help for those who are going to bet the over or the under this weekend. This matchup has gone 3-4 O/U in the past 7 games, with an actual game total of 41.3 points on average. However, the game has also hit the UNDER in four of the last five. And in the past three games, which have featured both Kaepernick and Wilson, the actual average game total was 40.3 points. In other words the oddsmakers have set a perfect total for this game.
So which side is the better take? The logical bet is on the UNDER since both teams boast such terrific defenses, but that almost seems too obvious. If you want to play it safe, then the UNDER is exactly where you should put your money but I have a bad feeling that San Francisco has been a sleeping giant this season. They unleashed their full potential last weekend in a galvanizing win over Carolina. The scariest part of this game is that if either of these teams get rolling, they could virtually push the OVER all by themselves.
That’s almost what I expect to happen. San Francisco was brilliant last weekend against a feared Carolina defense and with weather this weekend being nominal for a football game, the Niners will be a dual threat in the air and on the ground as they always are. Russell Wilson is also a game breaking dynamo who can certainly stir the pot as well and find the narrow seams in San Francisco’s defense that Cam Newton couldn’t. The numbers guy in me says that the UNDER is the smarter play here, but I have a sneaking suspicion that the OVER is going to happen. Both of these offences are so good that you can’t necessarily bank on either defense to stay upright for four full quarters.
Obviously, if you’re going to bet the over or the under in the NFC Championship, the choice is up to you but at least now you have a little more information.