NFC Divisional Playoff Betting Trends - New Orleans Saints vs Seattle Seahawks

NFC West Week 16 Betting Picks – Can Arizona Dethrone Seattle?

The Arizona Cardinals are entering a danger zone in their NFC West Week 16 betting rivalry game against the vaunted Seattle Seahawks. At 10-4 ATS, the Cardinals have been a fantastic profit train despite the presence of castaways like Carson Palmer and Rashard Mendenhall. It’s almost unthinkable that the Seahawks would lose at home, especially to these Cardinals, but the spread on this game is massive. There’s a big chance for a sneaky cover here.

If safety Tyrann Mathieu wasn’t hurt, and this line was still in this range, the Cardinals would be a great play. Arizona beats you be using a violently energetic defensive front, and a lockdown secondary, to bully opposing offences. This eventually gives Carson Palmer and the offence time to find their rhythm. Arizona literally tries to grind you down, so the big question in this NFC West Week 16 betting matchup is whether they will have the time to do that considering Seattle’s frenetic scoring pace at home.

Arizona Cardinals (9-5) vs. Seattle Seahawks (12-2)
The Arizona Cardinals are 10.5 point underdogs visiting the Seattle Seahawks in week 16.
Starts: 12/22/2013 4:00PM
CenturyLink Field 800 Occidental Ave. S.
Seattle, Washington

 

We have to study this whole “Seattle is great at home” thing because it might not be true. Seattle rocks out to the tune of 32.6 points per game when playing at home, and allow just 17.3 points against. That’s a fairly cavernous point differential, but it isn’t much different than their overall season stats which give them an average of +12.6 points. Seattle’s also 5-0 SU and 3-2 ATS at CenturlyLink Field this year.

But if you dig deeper in to the matchups, it reveals a bit more of a weird story. Their first home game was against San Francisco, when the Niners were in a strange funk (they were obliterated by the Colts the following week). Then they killed Jacksonville (big deal), barely beat Tennessee 20-13 and were nearly upset by Tampa Bay before decimating Minnesota (yawn) and then crushed New Orleans who are 1-5 ATS on the road this season (the Saints also lost to the Jets!). There’s much more to this NFC west Week 16 betting matchup than meets the eye.

Bonus Week 16 NFL Spread Picks

Date
Away
Home
Pick
Sun, Dec 22nd 2013
Cleveland
New York
NYJ -2.5
Sun, Dec 22nd 2013
Minnesota
Cincinnati
CIN -7.5
Sun, Dec 22nd 2013
Denver
Houston
DEN -10.5
Sun, Dec 22nd 2013
Tennessee
Jacksonville
JAX +5.5
Sun, Dec 22nd 2013
Miami
Buffalo
MIA -2.5
Sun, Dec 22nd 2013
Indianapolis
Kansas City
KC -7.0
Sun, Dec 22nd 2013
Dallas
Washington
WAS +2.5
Sun, Dec 22nd 2013
Tampa Bay
St. Louis
TB +5.5
Sun, Dec 22nd 2013
Indianapolis
Kansas City
KC -7.0
Sun, Dec 22nd 2013
New York Giants
Detroit
NYG +10.0
Sun, Dec 22nd 2013
Oakland
San Diego
SD -10.0
Sun, Dec 22nd 2013
Pittsburgh
Green Bay
GB -2.5
Sun, Dec 22nd 2013
New England
Baltimore
BAL -2.5
Sun, Dec 22nd 2013
Chicago
Philadelphia
PHI -3.0

The absence of the Honey Badger is significant for the Cardinals, but the Seahawks are also playing without key members of their secondary due to suspensions. Carson Palmer is a very jagged pill to swallow, but he’s also been playing staggeringly well and you can’t undermine just how great Bruce Arians has been as a coach all season.

So this feels like I’m leaning towards taking Arizona right? Wrong. Listen, I love the Cardinals but they are a shaky road bet at best, especially when playing good teams. The Cards are just 2-6-1 ATS in their last 9 roadies against teams with winning records, and while the loss of Browner is leaves a huge hole in the Seahawks secondary, they have depth at the position that Arizona does not. Arizona’s been a fun ride all year, but I think the wheels are about to fall off the proverbial bus. I like them more than most, but not enough to take them in this pivotal NFC west Week 16 brawl.

NFC West Week 16 Betting Free Pick – Seattle -10.5

Posted in NFL