NFL Betting Week 7 Picks – Go HeavyJosh Bailey
If you’re looking to get ahead in NFL week 7 betting this week then look no further! This week let us focus on these three teams:
- New England Patriots
- San Francisco 49ers
- Kansas City Chiefs.
NFL Betting Week 7 Picks
New England at New York Jets
New England -4.5
I know the New England Patriots (5-1 SU, 3-3 ATS) are on the road against their hated AFC rivals, the rebuilding New York Jets (3-3 SU, 4-2 ATS), but I’m still a bit taken aback that the Pats are only 4.5-point favorites.
New England has found multiple ways to prevail this season just as they did in beating New Orleans 30-27 as a 2.5-point home favorite a week ago to move to a cool 3-1 ATS over their last four games.
The New York Jets are coming off a discouraging 19-6 Week 6 loss to Pittsburgh as a 1-point home underdog and have been wildly inconsistent, alternating SU wins and losses all season long.
Analysis: The polar-opposite play of these two teams is the reason why I like the Patriots to win going away and why 75% percent of NFL bets are backing the Pats as well. I fully expect polarizing Patriots head coach Bill Belichick to show Geno Smith several things he’s never seen before in an NFL game.
Throw in the fact that New England averages 3.5 points per game more than the Jets while also allowing 6.3 fewer points per contest defensively and it’s easy to see the Pats cruising in this one, much like they did in their 13-10 Week 2 home win over the Jets.
New England has posted an incendiary 12-2 ATS mark in their L/14 road games against the Jets while New York has compiled a dismal 2-5 ATS mark in their L/7 games against their AFC counterparts. I like the New England Patriots to win and cover the spread with ease in this one!
The Pick: New England -4.5 Points
San Francisco at Tennessee
San Francisco -6
72% of NFL bets (at the time of writing) on this game are going heavy on the San Francisco 49ers (4-2 SU, 4-2 ATS) to cover the spread against the impressive Tennessee Titans (3-3 SU, 4-1-1 ATS) when they meet at LP Field for their week 7 showdown, now let me explain why that’s a great pick.
Analysis: First and foremost, the Titans are really missing blossoming quarterback Jake Locker right now. The Titans have dropped two straight without their young signal-caller. Over his last two starts, veteran backup Ryan Fitzpatrick has thrown one touchdown and four interceptions, including two in each of the last two outings.
The Titans also haven’t scored more than 17 points in either of their last two games after topping that figure in each of their previous three games.
San Francisco has won three straight and appears back on track to contend for the NFC title, even though they struggled a bit in beating Arizona 32-20 as an 11-point road favorite to move to 2-0-1 ATS over their last three games.
Tennessee is struggling to score points and the stingy Niners don’t give up very many points anyway (19.7 ppg). The Titans are 3-9-1 ATS in their last 13 games against teams with a winning SU record while San Francisco has gone 9-2 ATS in their last 11 games in the month of October and a bankroll-boosting 29-14-1 ATS over their L/44 games overall.
The Niners win and cash in – easily!
The Pick: San Francisco -6 Points
Houston at Kansas City
Kansas City -4.5
After winning each of their first two games this season, the wheels have fallen completely off the reeling Houston Texans’ (2-4 SU, 0-6 ATS) Super Bowl bandwagon.
Conversely, the Kansas City Chiefs (6-0 SU, 5-1 ATS) are back and better than ever this season under new head coach Andy Reid as they come into this Week 7 contest riding the second-best start in franchise history.
Houston has lost four straight games with each loss coming in increasingly horrific fashion. The Texans’ latest loss was a shocking 38-13 home smack down against St. Louis as a 9.5-point favorite no less. Houston has yet to cover the spread in a single game this season.
The Chiefs weren’t overly impressive but they still managed to get a convincing 24-7 win over Oakland in their Week 6 AFC West divisional battle while covering the spread for the fourth consecutive game, this time as a 7.5-point home favorite.
Analysis: Now, while it’s quite possible that the Houston Texans could really show up and give the Chiefs a hard way to go in this contest, I suspect the way these two teams have played all season will show in this matchup.
Basically, Houston has found all sorts of ways to throw games away (literally) while Kansas City has remained unbeaten by playing mostly error-free football on offense and absolutely outstanding defense.
Kansas City leads the league in points allowed defensively, (10.8) and I just don’t see them falling apart against a Texans team that saw its own fans turn on them (okay, it was mostly quarterback Matt Schaub) a week ago.
The Texans are 0-6 ATS in their last six road games and have given up at least 34 points in each of the last two weeks. Simply put, the Kansas City Chiefs win and cash in!
The Pick: Kansas City -4.5 Points