Earlier we looked how betting on home NFL teams can give you an edge. Now lets look at the road teams that you should bet on in week 7.
The Seattle Seahawks, Buffalo Bills and Tampa Bay Buccaneers will all look to record road wins in their respective Week 7 contests and I’ve got the goods on just which of these three teams will be successful in their attempt to become a road warrior this coming weekend.
With Seattle and Arizona getting underway on Thursday night, let’s get the ball rolling here.
NFL Road Team Betting Picks Week 7
Seattle at Arizona
The Seattle Seahawks (5-1 SU, 4-2 ATS) may be just 4-9 SU and 4-8 ATS in their last 13 road games against the Arizona Cardinals (3-3 SU, 4-2 ATS) but I fully expect them to take down their NFC West division rivals and boost their dismal SU and ATS numbers against a Cardinals team that I believe is only mediocre on its very best day.
Seattle should have plenty of motivation after losing to Indianapolis two weeks ago and narrowly beating the banged-up Titan 20-13 in Week 6. The Seahawks fell to 0-2 ATS over their last two games by failing to cover as an 11-point home favorite against the Titans.
Arizona had its modest two-game SU and ATS winning streaks snapped in its humbling 32-20 Week 6 loss to San Francisco while failing to cover the spread as a 10-point road dog.
Analysis: I’m not going to waste a whole lot of time beating around the bush with this pick, mostly because I believe the outcome of this NFC West divisional battle is closer to a virtual lock than anything else.
Seattle averages 7.7 points per game more than Arizona while also allowing 6.5 fewer points per game defensively. I know the Seahawks have historically struggled when they visit the desert, going 1-6 ATS in their L/7 road games against the Cardinals, but that was then and now, the Seahawks are the odds-on-favorite to represent the NFC in the 2014 Super Bowl.
Seattle is 6-1 ATS in its last seven road games and a blistering 10-3 ATS in their last 13 games overall while Arizona has gone 2-5 ATS in their L/7 games against teams from the NFC West.
The Seattle Seahawks are legitimate Super Bowl contenders while the Arizona Cardinals are most certainly not. The Seahawks’ defense will help them win outright and narrowly cover the spread.
The Pick: Seattle -6.5 Points
Buffalo at Miami
The Buffalo Bills (2-4 SU, 4-2 ATS) and Miami Dolphins (3-2 SU, 3-2 ATS) will renew their longtime AFC East divisional battle when the two playoff hopefuls square off at Sun Life Stadium on Sunday.
Buffalo has lost two straight and is coming off a disheartening 27-24 overtime loss to Cincinnati in Week 6, though the Bills did manage to cover the spread as a 5.5-point home underdog. Buffalo has alternated SU wins and losses over their last five games.
Miami suffered a heartbreaking 26-23 loss to Baltimore in Week 6 while narrowly failing to cover the spread as a 2.5-point home favorite to fall to 0-2 ATS over their last two games.
Analysis: While Miami has won – and covered the spread in three of the last four meetings against Buffalo, I don’t think the Fins are going to cover the double-digit point spread this time around, even though I do like them to get the hard-fought home win.
The fact of the matter is that Miami and Buffalo are very evenly matched teams offensively, with Miami averaging 22.8 points per game and Buffalo, 22.7. Defensively, the Fins are a bit better in allowing just 23.4 points per game to Buffalo’s 26.2 per contest.
Still, this 3.3-point scoring differential isn’t enough for Miami to cover the double-digit spread.
Not Buffalo is 5-5 ATS in their last 10 road games against the Dolphins, but the Bills have bounced back nicely from a loss, posting an encouraging 5-0 ATS mark in their last five games following an SU loss.
I know Miami has gone 5-1 ATS in their last 6 home games, but I genuinely believe the point spread for this matchup is at least four points too high for the Fins.
Both of these teams have done a nice job of rebuilding, but Buffalo’s performance against a very good Cincinnati team last week leads me to believe they’re going to hang in this one until the very end, even without injured rookie quarterback E.J. Manuel.
The Pick: Buffalo +10.5 Points
Tampa Bay at Atlanta
The Atlanta Falcons (1-4 SU, 1-4 ATS) have lost three straight games and are vying for the title of ‘Biggest Underachiever’ in the league this season.
No matter. The Falcons have found a cure in the winless Tampa Bay Buccaneers (0-5 SU, 1-4 ATS). The two desperate NFC teams will square off at the Georgia Dome on Sunday, also looking to snap identical three-game ATS losing streaks.
The Buccaneers are coming off a dismal 31-20 loss to Philadelphia in Week 6 while failing to cover the spread as a 2.5-point home underdog. Atlanta’s latest loss was a heartbreaking 30-28 home loss to the mediocre New York Jets in Week 5 in which the team’s defense fell apart late against rookie Geno Smith while lending a huge helping hand in failing to cover the spread as a 10-point home favorite
Analysis: I know the Buccaneers beat the Falcons the last time they visited Atlanta, not to mention the fact that they’ve posted a spectacular 8-3-1 ATS mark in their last 12 meetings against the Falcons and 5-1 ATS mark in their last six road games against the Dirty Birds.
Still, Atlanta has won seven of the last nine meetings outright despite posting a discouraging 3-5-1 ATS mark over the stretch and I expect them to win and win big this time around over a Buccaneers team that is quite dysfunctional right now thanks to enigmatic head coach Greg Schiano.
The fact of the matter is that Tampa Bay is averaging a paltry 12.8 points per game compared to Atlanta’s respectable 24.4 points per contest and the Falcons have been snake bitten this season, suffering all four of their losses by a touchdown or less with two of those coming by four points or less.
The Favorite in this NFC South rivalry has gone 3-1-1 ATS in their last five meetings. The Tampa Bay Buccaneers are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games overall. The Atlanta Falcons are a lot better than Tampa Bay even if they haven’t shown it and last but not least, the Falcons need to keep their postseason hopes alive and are flat-out desperate for a win.
Add it all up and it comes out a Falcons win and cover.
The Pick: Atlanta -6 Points