NFL San Francisco 49ers Joe Staley

NFL Week 4 Early Against The Spread Picks

Get in on the action early for NFL Week 4 with my early NFL against the spread picks.  But before we jump into that, I need to mention that for the first time in almost 19 years that Cincinnati, Cleveland, and Detroit all won during the same week of play.  The last time that happened was in November of 1994*.

San Francisco 49ers (1-2 ATS) at St. Louis Rams (0-3 ATS)

What are the Odds for the Game? 49ers -3.5 and Game Total: 42.
When will it be play? Thursday Night 8:25 PM ET
Where? Edward Jones Dome.
Which TV will broadcast it? NFL Network.

What are the betting trends for the 49ers and Rams?

  • San Francisco is 8-4 SU in its last 12 games on the road
  • San Francisco is 1-5 ATS in its last 6 games when playing St. Louis
  • The total has gone OVER in 4 of San Francisco’s last 6 games when playing St. Louis
  • San Francisco7-2-1 SU in its last 10 games when playing St. Louis
  • San Francisco is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games when playing on the road against St. Louis
  • San Francisco is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games when playing on the road against St. Louis
  • The total has gone UNDER in 5 of San Francisco’s last 7 games when playing on the road against St. Louis
  • St. Louis is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games
  • St. Louis is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games at home
  • St. Louis is 1-5 ATS in its last 6 games at home

Both the 49ers and Rams were awfully disappointing for people who bet on them in week three, and a lot of time to right the ship as they meet on Thursday night.

Most of us expected the Cowboys to beat the Rams, but I don’t think anyone was expecting a blowout.  St. Louis rushed for a miserable 35 yards in the 31-7 loss against the Cowboys and dropped to a 1-2 record.
Their rushing attack is nearly non existent averaging 57 yards per game in the first three weeks.  To make it even worst, the offense only converted 1 of 13 third downs.

As anyone who was watching the game Rams QB Sam Bradford has only one weapon he can rely on.  Bradford completed 6 for 7 targeting WR Tavon Austin Sunday on short passes.  On the flip side Bradford was only 5 for 17 when targeting other wide receivers, many of which were down field passes.

You can’t trust the Rams offense at this point. The 49ers don’t have much to be happy about either.  They were embarrassed by the visiting Indianapolis Colts in the 27-7 home loss on Sunday.

San Francisco lost the battle in the trenches in an uncanny way. Their defensive only sacked Andrew Luck once, and allowed 183 rushing yards.  The Colts haven’t been able to run the ball or protect Luck all season.

Andrew Luck was hit 14 times in the first two weeks, and was on pace to get hit 112 times on the season. The 49ers only pressured Luck eight times on Sunday and that gave the Colts offense a lot of space to get the ball downfield.

San Fran had more bad news when star linebacker Patrick Willis went down with a groin injury in the third quarter.  It was only a one score game at this point. 

Coach Jim Harbaugh said the 49ers will wait until Willis gets a MRI exam to detail the severity of the injury, but considering they play on a short week, it doesn’t look good for Thursday night.

Also, the 49ers front office stated that fellow linebacker Aldon Smith will take an indefinite leave from the team to go to rehab after he was arrested early Friday morning for DUI.

That’s two of the 49ers defenders that the Rams won’t miss this short week.

The NFL betting trends state that Rams have covered the spread in the last three meeting they had against the 49ers, and also they are 4-1 against the spread when hosting San Fran in the last five games at Edward Jones Dome.

The last two Thursday Night games we’ve seen this season haven’t lived up to the hype.  It seems that the short week is causing preparation issues that have lead to low scoring games.

With that being said, these two teams had problems putting points on the board over the last two weeks.  Don’t expect shootout.

NFL Betting Pick: Rams +3 and the UNDER.

New York Jets (3-0 ATS) at Tennessee Titans (2-0-1 ATS)

What are the Odds for the Game? Titans -4.5 & Game Total: 38.5
When will it be play? Sunday 4:05 PM ET
Where? LP Field.
Which TV will broadcast it? CBS.

What are the Betting Trends for the Jets and the Titans?

  • The total has gone UNDER in 6 of the NY Jets last 8 games
  • NY Jets are 2-4 SU in their last 6 games
  • The total has gone UNDER in 5 of the NY Jets last 6 games on the road
  • Tennessee is 6-3 SU in their last 9 games when playing at home against NY Jets
  • Tennessee is 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games when playing at home against NY Jets
  • The total has gone UNDER in 8 of Tennessee’s last 12 games when playing NY Jets

Curiously enough, these are two teams no one bet on coming into the season, and both remain undefeated against the spread.

The Titans beat the Jets 14-10 last season, and I can honestly say their two defenses are now better than a year ago.

The Jets came back to the ground and pound mentally, solidified by the 5th best total defense in the league.  The Titans haven’t committed a turnover thus far this season and like the Jets they are a blue-collar team.
 
Rex Ryan team also is a very undisciplined football team.  Against the Bills, they committed 20 penalties for 168 negatives yards;  Elias Sports Bureau revealed that only two teams in NFL history won a matchup despite having 20 penalties, but the last time it happened was in 1951.

This will be a grind it out game with long drives that might end in field goals more often than touchdowns.

NFL Betting Pick: Take the UNDER.

New England Patriots (1-2 ATS) at Atlanta (1-2 ATS)

What are the Odds for the Game? Patriots -1 and Game Total: 49.5
When will it be play? Sunday Night 8:30 PM ET
Where? Georgia Dome.
Which TV will broadcast it? NBC.

What are the Betting Trends for the Patriots and the Falcons?

  • New England is 13-2 SU in its last 15 games
  • New England is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games on the road
  • New England is 2-3-1 ATS in its last 6 games on the road
  • New England is 14-5-2 ATS in its last 21 games on the road
  • Atlanta is 15-6 SU in its last 21 games
  • Atlanta is 1-5 ATS in its last 6 games
  • Atlanta is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games when playing at home against New England

Falcons and Patriots met for the last time in 2009; Matt Ryan was in the second year of his career, and Tom Brady was just coming off of knee surgery that kept him out of the whole 2008 campaign.  New England won and covered the 4.5 point spread that day.

Both Ryan and Brady are different players on different teams now. This second meeting between the two will pit they two QBs with the highest win percentages in the NFL among active QBs (25 starts minimum).
 
While Tom Brady has won 78% of his starts (139-39), Matt Ryan is a close second with 70.3% (57-24).  Ryan is also 34-5 at home, with 62 TDs and 26 interceptions.

Brady completed 25 of 36 passes in the 23-3 victory over the Tampa Bay Buccaneers for 225 yards and two touchdowns (both with rookie WR Kenbrell Thompkins), but he also made an un-Brady like error when he threw an interception inside the red zone.

The porous Falcons D might have a shot at keeping the Pats from scoring at will against the unproven young Patriots offense.

The Pats defense has improved from last year to this one as they rank 10th in total defense currently.  That stat won’t be as impressive when you look at whom they have beaten:  two rookie quarterbacks in EJ Manuel (Buffalo) and Geno Smith (NYJ), and Josh Freeman, who desperately wants out of Tampa.

Tom Brady doesn’t have a supporting cast like Matt Ryan does.  Receivers Roddy White, Julio Jones and tight end Tony Gonzalez will have their way with the Pats secondary.

NFL Picks: Falcons +1.

*Elias Sports Bureau

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