NFL Week 4 Against The Spread Predictions

NFL Kansas City Chiefs Donnie Avery

NFL Week 4 Against The Spread Predictions

In Weeks 1 and 2, there were a total of 3 games decided by 20 or more points. This past Sunday that number jumped by seven.  That is a lot of lopsided games. To be fair, it did help the Giants, Cardinals, Texans and Rams dropped the ball (pun intended) in their respective games and didn’t put up much of a fight.

Here are the teams that you need to bet on to against the spread to cash in big.

New York Giants (0-3 ATS) at Kansas City Chiefs (2-1 ATS)

What are the Odds for the Game? KC Chiefs -4.5 and Game Total: 44.
When will it be play? Sunday 1 PM ET
Where? Arrowhead Stadium
Which TV will broadcast it? Fox

What are the betting trends for the NY Giants and Chiefs?

  • NY Giants are 1-5 SU in their last 6 games
  • NY Giants are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games
  • The total has gone UNDER in 5 of the NY Giants last 6 games on the road
  • NY Giants are 0-5 SU in their last 5 games on the road
  • NY Giants are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games on the road
  • NY Giants are 7-1 SU in their last 8 games when playing Kansas City
  • Kansas City is 4-12 SU in its last 16 games
  • Kansas City is 2-5 ATS in its last 7 games
  • Kansas City is 3-7 ATS in its last 10 games at home
  • Kansas City is 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games when playing NY Giants

These are two teams going in separate directions.  The G-Men are 0-3 after being Super Bowl contenders for the last decade and the Kansas City Chiefs are undefeated after being a bottom run team for a decade.
The NY Giants have lost the first three games of the season by a combined of 61 points and they are are 5-0 against the spread when facing the Chiefs since 1995, including three of those five played at Kansas City.

That is a nice way of saying that the Giants are a shell of their former selves.

Eli Manning (tied with Michael Vick) is the most sacked quarterback in the league entering week 4 with 11 sacks total. Seven of those came in their week 3 loss against Panthers. Manning is also the most intercepted QB in the NFL with eight picks, which shows that the offensive line in NY couldn’t protect their wallets in church.
How bad is it in New York? The Giants are the first team with at least 13 turnovers through 3 games since 2001 Lions and 2001 Cowboys.

Here’s where it could get ugly for the G-Men.  The Kansas City Chiefs have recorded 15 sacks in three weeks, most by any team in NFL; they have intercepted four balls and have two defensive touchdowns.  Unless the Giants can get the run game established early and protect Manning this could be a repeat of week 3 loss to the Carolina Panthers.

Giants’ running back David Wilson is averaging a paltry 3.0 yards per carry, which is the second lowest for a starting running back, only ahead of Maurice Jones-Drew from the Jaguars.

If the Giants commit to the run the ball they could have a shot at winning.  The Chiefs allow 124.0 yards per game through the ground (ranked 25th in the league).  Just last week the Chiefs D allowed Eagles’ RB LeSean McCoy ran for 158 yards and a touchdown.

The Chiefs, along with the Titans, are the only two teams in the NFL who have not turned the ball over.  In comparison, the Giants have -9 in the net turnover column (tied with Pittsburgh for worst in the league).

The Giants front seven on D have only picked up a lowly three sacks in just as many weeks. This bodes well for Chiefs’ QB Alex Smith who can play mistake free football if given the protection.

History tells me to pick the Giants to win straight up, but they are not the same team.  So take the points.

NFL Pick: NY Giants +4.5.

Cincinnati Bengals (2-0-1 ATS) vs Cleveland Browns (1-2 ATS)

What are the Odds for the Game? Bengals -5 and Game Total: 43.
When will it be play? Sunday 1 PM ET
Where? FirstEnergy Stadium
Which TV will broadcast it? CBS

What are the betting trends for the Bengals and Browns?

  • Cincinnati is 9-3 SU in its last 12 games
  • Cincinnati is 9-2-1 ATS in its last 12 games
  • Cincinnati is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing Cleveland
  • Cincinnati is 2-5-1 ATS in its last 8 games when playing Cleveland
  • Cincinnati is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games when playing on the road against Cleveland
  • The total has gone OVER in 5 of Cincinnati’s last 6 games when playing on the road against Cleveland

The Cincinnati Bengals are coming off a huge victory over the Green Bay Packers thanks to their much-improved defense.  This week the Bengals will have an easier time this week when they visit Cleveland to play the Browns.

Browns coach Rob Chudzinski named QB Brian Hoyer as the starter for the second week in a row after his win at Minnesota. Hoyer, a virtual unknown until last week, gave a spark to a Cleveland team that seems to be inexplicably in the process of rebuilding.

Hoyer and breakout TE Jordon Cameron took a page out the Pats playbook several times this last week and connected 3 times for touchdowns last week and look that to continue.

Cincinnati allowed 49 yards and a touchdown from TE Martellus Bennett in their matchup against Chicago in week one, but their defense hasn’t faced a versatile tight end like Cameron in the three weeks so far this season.  Heath Miller was out when they beat the Steelers, and Green Bay’s Jermichael Finley had to leave Sunday matchup early with a concussion.

UPDATE: Bengals defensive back Adam ‘Pacman’ Jones’ was arrested on Monday and his status is uncertain for Sunday.

The Browns have covered three of the last four meetings against the Bengals in Cleveland, a stat good enough stat makes me what to take a shot at taking the Brows with the 5 points.

Bengals QB Andy Dalton was 20 of 28 for 235 yards with two touchdowns, an interception and a fumble against the Packers.  With the addition of RB Rio Bernard and his explosiveness this offensive has the tools to win their division.

Dalton is 3-1 against the Browns in the two seasons he has been in the league, with 8 touchdowns and four interceptions, but last season he threw three picks in the 34-24 loss at Cleveland.

The Browns defense is 13th at defending the pass and 8th at stopping the run.  They will keep the score close.

NFL Pick: Brown+5.

Indianapolis Colts (1-2 ATS) vs Jacksonville Jaguars (0-3 ATS)

What are the Odds for the Game? Colts -8 and Game Total: 41.
When will it be play? Sunday 1 PM ET
Where? EverBank Field
Which TV will broadcast it? CBS

What are the betting trends for the Colts and Jags?

  • Indianapolis is 11-4 SU in its last 15 games
  • The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Indianapolis’s last 5 games when playing Jacksonville
  • Indianapolis is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games when playing Jacksonville
  • Indianapolis is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games when playing on the road against Jacksonville
  • Jacksonville is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games when playing at home against Indianapolis
  • The total has gone OVER in 8 of Jacksonville’s last 12 games when playing at home against Indianapolis

After the drubbing the Colts put on the 49ers last week and the way the Jaguars have been loosing since ever this is a no brainer.

NFL Pick: Colts -8.