NFL Week 5 Betting GuideNoah Williams
With Week 5 of the 2013 NFL regular season here, this fun-filled, league-wide look at the league’s leaders, losers and eye-opening ATS and O/U statistics will get gridiron gamblers’ blood pumping like never before.
You see, with four weeks of the 2013 NFL regular season now a thing of the past, NFL gamblers, fantasy football players and plain old football fans everywhere need to know what they can likely expect over the remaining three-fourths of the 2013 NFL regular season.
From the league’s elite teams to those lovable losers still looking for their first victory of the season, you’re going to get some extremely pertinent wagering information that you’ll be able to put in play for this week’s approaching slate of Week 5 games.
OK, let’s look at what else we learned from Sunday’s action from a gambling perspective, and if we can apply those lessons to next week’s games, as well as examine the early NFL Week 5 betting line moves.
League-Wide ATS Leaders
Seattle 4-0 ATS
The Seattle Seahawks are the league’s only unbeaten ATS team, mostly because they’re giving up just 11.8 points per game and beating their opponents by an average of 15.4 points per contest.
Miami 3-0 ATS
Heading into Monday night’s matchup against New Orleans, the Fins’ surprising defense was allowing just 17.7 points per game defensively. Oh…and it look s like Miami finally found a quarterback to replace Dan Marino…about a decade too late.
Denver 3-0-1 ATS
When you’re averaging a whopping 44.8 points per game like the Broncos are, then you can apparently give up 22.8 points per contest defensively like it’s nothing, duh!
Tennessee 3-0-1 ATS
Like the Dolphins, the Tennessee Titans also have a young and hungry defense that likes shutting down its opponents as evidenced by the miniscule 17.2 points per game they allow. Like Miami’s second-year signal caller, Ryan Tannehill, Tennessee’s Jake Locker suddenly has the look of a budding star.
San Diego 3-0-1 ATS
The Chargers got their third ATS win of the season by smacking down mediocre Dallas in Week 4, but when you’re averaging 27.0 points per game and allowing 25.5 per contest defensively, you clearly don’t have a whole lot of wiggle room.
Kansas City 3-1 ATS
One man’s trash is apparently another man’s treasure apparently. Philadelphia parted ways with head coach Andy Reid after a mostly stupendous 14-year run, only to see Kansas City scoop him up and immediately transform the fortunes of their beleaguered franchise. Never known as a defensive genius, Reid has the Chiefs limiting their opponents to just 10.2 points per game defensively.
Detroit 3-1 ATS
The Lions are giving up a whopping 25.2 points per game defensively, but they’re also averaging 30.5 per contest offensively, thanks to Matt Stafford, Calvin ‘Megatron’ Johnson and now, versatile running back Reggie Bush.
Arizona 3-1 ATS
Don’t ask me how the Cardinals got to 3-1 ATS by scoring 17.2 points per game and giving up 22.2 defensively, but here they are.
Buffalo 3-1 ATS
The Buffalo Bills are clearly rejuvenated under first-year head coach Doug Marrone and ‘steal of the draft’ quarterback E.J. Manuel. Maybe it’s me…but I say good for the Bills.
Dallas 3-1 ATS
The Dallas Cowboys may be 3-1 ATS, but this team is mediocre at best – just like the rest of the pitiful NCF East. Dallas is averaging 26.0 points per game while allowing 21.2 per contest defensively.
NY Jets 3-1 ATS
The Jets are likely 2-2 SU only because they played a disjointed Tampa Bay Buccaneers team in Week 1 and a young Bills team in Week 3. This team is allowing 22.0 points per contest – or 5.0 points more than they average offensively.
Atlanta 1-3 ATS
The Falcons’ high-powered offense has been outscored by 10 points through four games this season, while topping the 30-point plateau just once.
Philadelphia 1-3 ATS
Everybody talks about Chip Kelly’s fast-paced no-huddle offense. Maybe they should talk about how his teams never play much defense. The Birds are ranked a dismal 31st in points allowed (34.5).
Washington 1-3 ATS
The Redskins got off the schneid by beating Oakland in Week 4, but NFL gamblers should know that…until they stop allowing a whopping 28.0 points per game defensively, they’re going to struggle to get both, SU and ATS wins moving forward.
Tampa Bay 1-3 ATS
The Bucs fell to 0-4 on the season by falling to Arizona 13-10 in Week 4 – all after head coach Greg Schiano said rookie quarterback Mike Glennon gave the team the best chance to win over veteran Josh Freeman. Oh…Freeman did not dress for Sunday’s game as the team said it was a “mutual decision” not to have their best quarterback in uniform for Sunday’s contest.
Houston 0-4 ATS
If you saw Houston’s pitiful 23-20 Overtime loss to Seattle on Sunday, then you already know why this team is 0-4 ATS and continues to shoot itself in the foot in spite of the impressive talent level of its roster.
St. Louis 0-4 ATS
The Rams have lost three straight after winning their season opener. Unfortunately, they’ve looked increasingly worse each time out.
Jacksonville 0-4 ATS
Say what you want about the Jacksonville Jaguars. I say Nick Saban’s Alabama Crimson Tide can beat this absolutely horrific team. The Jags have been held to nine points or less in three of their four games.
N.Y. Giants 0-4 ATS
The Giants are giving up a whopping 36.5 points per game this season and not team in the world…okay, outside of Denver, can Overcome numbers like those.
Pittsburgh 0-4 ATS
Can you believe the perennially hard-nosed Pittsburgh Steelers are allowing an insane (for them) 27.5 points per game this season? Mike Tomlin’s team has allowed an insane 74 points over the last two weeks.
Great Defense Wins Championships, But Does It Lead to ATS Wins?
As the age-old maxim goes…great defense wins championships. However, what NFL betting enthusiasts really need to know is…does great defense lead to ATS victories.
Apparently, it helps a lot.
The Chiefs, Seahawks, Saints, Colts, Patriots, Titans and Dolphins are all either 4-0 or 3-1 SU heading into Week 5. The only undefeated team not on this list is the Denver Broncos and they don’t need to play much defense when you’re averaging an insane 44.8 points per game.
Just three teams ranked in the top 10 in defensive points allowed, don’t have winning SU or ATS records (Carolina, Cleveland, Tampa Bay), so yeah, defense does help cover the spread more often than not!
Kansas City 10.2 3-1 ATS
Seattle 11.8 4-0 ATS
Carolina 12.0 1-2 ATS
New Orleans 12.7 2-1 ATS
Indianapolis 12.8 2-2 ATS
New England 14.2 2-2 ATS
Tennessee 17.2 3-0-1 ATS
Cleveland 17.5 2-2 ATS
Tampa Bay 17.5 1-3 ATS
Miami 17.7 3-0 ATS
There’s No Place Like Home…Unless You’re Not Favored!
You know…they say there’s no place like home…unless you’re staying at a five-star hotel that is. Okay…all jokes aside, home teams are winning 64.52 percent of the time through four weeks while Away teams have won 35.48 percent of the time.
If you can back a home favorite…you’d better do it as a whopping 75.61% of all home favorites so far have covered the spread. Home Underdogs aren’t doing nearly s well, covering the spread just 42.86 percent of the time. Overall, home teams have cashed in for their betting backers in 57.63 percent of all games (34-25-3).
What’s Your Favorite Flavor?
Betting on NFL football games isn’t like buying your favorite ice cream. Apparently betting on any favorite this season is going to help betting buffs bring home the bacon at a high rate. A blistering 69.35% (43-19) of all favorites have covered the spread as opposed to just 30.65% of all Underdogs (19-43)
Now, let’s get to some Over/Under trends for Totals betting buffs.
Did You Know that, heading into Monday Night Football’s Week 4 matchup between the Dolphins and Saints, the season-long O/U Total for all games stood at a dead-even 31-31?
If you like to bet the Over/Under Total a lot, then you likely already know that teams that can score the ball – or ones that give up a ton of points – generally play Over the spread more often than not.
Of course, the best combination is a team that does both almost equally well, as is the case with the only three teams to play Over the Total in all four of their regular season games so far.
Denver averages 44.8 and allows 22.8 points defensively.
Chicago averages 31.8 points per game and allows 28.5 per contest defensively.
Minnesota is scoring 28.8 per game and allowing 30.8 per contest defensively.
Here is a look at all of the other teams with three Over outcomes in their first four games and the points they both average and allow.
Green Bay 3-0, 32.0 and 29.3
Houston 3-1, 22.5 and 26.2
Atlanta 3-1, 23.5 and 26.0
St. Louis 3-1, 17.2 and 30.2
Philadelphia 3-1, 24.8 and 34.5
San Diego 3-1, 27.0 and 25.5
Miami 3-0, 24.7 and 17.7
Now, let’s take a look at every Week 5 matchup on the docket and the key trends surrounding each contest.
Thursday, Oct. 3, 8:25 PM ET
Buffalo -4 at Cleveland
The total has gone Under in four of Buffalo’s L/6 road games.
The Under is 4-1 in Buffalo’s last five games against the Browns.
Cleveland is 2-5 ATS in its L/7 games
Sunday, Oct. 6 All 1:00 ET Games
Kansas City -2.5 at Tennessee
The total has gone Under in 5 of Kansas City’s L/6 games on the road.
The Over is 4-2 in Kansas City’s last half-dozen road games against Tennessee.
Tennessee is 6-3 SU in its L/9 games when playing at home against Kansas City
Baltimore +3 at Miami
The Under is 6-2 in Baltimore’s last eight road games against Miami
Baltimore is 3-7 SU in its last 10 road games against Miami.
The UNDER is 5-2 in Miami’s L/7 home games.
Miami is 7-3 SU in its last 10 home games against Baltimore.
Jacksonville +12 at St. Louis
Jacksonville is 0-5 ATS in its L/5 road games.
Jacksonville is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games
St. Louis is 1-4 SU and ATS in its L/5 games.
New England at Cincinnati OFF
New England is 15-5-2 ATS in its last 22 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 10 of New England’s last 14 games on the road
Cincinnati is 9-3-1 ATS in its last 13 games
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Cincinnati’s last 5 games when playing New England
Seattle -2.5 at Indianapolis
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Seattle’s last 6 games when playing Indianapolis
Seattle is 2-5 ATS in its last 7 games when playing Indianapolis
The total has gone UNDER in 7 of Indianapolis’s last 8 games
Indianapolis is 7-1 SU in its last 8 games at home
Detroit +6.5 at Green Bay
The total has gone OVER in 14 of Detroit’s last 20 games on the road
Detroit is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games on the road
Green Bay is 14-1 SU in its last 15 games when playing Detroit
Green Bay is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against Detroit
New Orleans +1 at Chicago
New Orleans is 2-3-1 ATS in its last half-dozen road games against Chicago.
New Orleans is 5-1-1 SU in its L/7 games.
The Over is 5-0 in Chicago’s L/5 games
Chicago is 1-3-1 ATS in its L/5 games
Philadelphia +2.5 at NY Giants
The Under is 12-5 in Philadelphia’s last 17 road games against the Giants.
Philadelphia is 5-1 SU in their last half-dozen road games against the G-Men.
NY Giants are 2-8 SU and ATS in their last 10 games against the NFC East rival Philadelphia Eagles.
4:05 PM ET Carolina -2 at Arizona
Carolina is 7-18 SU in its last 25 road games.
Carolina is 7-2 SU in its L/9 games against Arizona.
Arizona is 1-4 SU in its L/5 games against Carolina.
Arizona is 3-13 SU in its last 16 games overall.
4:25 PM ET – San Diego -5.5 at Oakland
San Diego is 4-1-1 ATS in its last 6 games
San Diego is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games
Oakland is 2-11 SU in its last 13 games
The total has gone UNDER in 9 of Oakland’s last 11 games
4:25 PM ET – Denver -6.5 at Dallas
Denver is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Denver’s last 8 games on the road
Dallas is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games at home
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Dallas’s last 6 games at home
8:30 PM ET -Houston +6.5 at San Francisco
Houston is 0-5 ATS in its L/5 road games.
Houston is 15-7 SU in its last 22 games
San Francisco is 15-7-1 SU in its last 23 games
The Over is 7-1 in San Francisco’s L/8 home games.
Monday, Oct. 8 at 8:40 PM ET
NY Jets +8 at Atlanta
NY Jets are 2-5 SU in their L/7 games
The Under is 6-3 in the Jets’ L/9 games.
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Atlanta’s last half-dozen games against the Jets.
Atlanta is 15-7 SU in its last 22 games overall.
So…there you have it NFL pro football betting fanatics…a bit of the good, (Denver, Seattle, New England and K.C) bad (Philly, Atlanta, St. Louis, Minnesota, Oakland, Washington) and ugly, (Giants, Steelers, Jags and Bucs) heading into Week 5 of the 2013 NFL regular season.
Now, make your week’s worth of wagers based on the eye-opening information you got in this informative article – or play it by ear. Whatever you do…coming out on the plus side is definitely the goal!