Announcers love to remind us, "This game isn’t over yet." Sometimes it’s true, sometimes we’re all thinking, "Yeah, so your ratings don’t go in the tank for the next half-hour."
What does make the last quarter of a not so close football game is when the team you bet the NFL money line on is comfortably ahead.
Here are my NFL week 7 money line picks, including four divisional games, four inter-conference matchups, and Peyton Manning returning going back to Indianapolis.
NFL Week 7 Money Line Betting Picks
Patriots -190 (5-1) at NY Jets +160 (3-3)
Game Time: 1 PM ET at MetLife Stadium
Why? Because the Pats never lose to the Jets. They have won eight of the last 10 in New York, but also covered the spread in 12 of the last 14 games in the Big Apple.
New England will be without three big names this week. WR Danny Amendola is doubtful after being diagnosed with a concussion; LB Jerod Mayo will be out for the year with a torn pectoral muscle, and CB Aqib Talib who is dealing with a hip injury.
Jets Rookie QB Geno Smith threw three interceptions in week 2 when these two teams met for the first time this year. He has gotten better, but not better enough to beat the Pats.
Buccaneers +250 (0-5) at Falcons -300 (1-4)
Game Time: 1 PM ET at Georgia Dome
Why? Because QB Mike Glennon won’t win his first game in the NFL on the road against a team a better team.
Bengals +120 (4-2) at Lions -140 (4-2)
Game Time: 1 PM ET at Ford Field
Why? I trust Matthew Stafford at home more than Andy Dalton on the road.
Bills +285 (2-4) at Dolphins -340 (3-2)
Game Time: 1 PM ET at Sun Life Stadium
Why? The Dolphins have won 7 of the last 10 against the Bills.
Cowboys +122 (3-3) at Eagles -142 (3-3)
Game Time: 1 PM at Lincoln Financial Field
Why? Philadelphia is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games at home against Dallas. Their defense allowed 263 passing yards from Bucs rookie QB Mike Glennon last week; Cowboys QB Tony Romo have fun throwing downfield.
Bears PK (2-4) at Redskins PK (1-4)
Game Time: 1 PM ET at Fedex Field
Why? The Redskins defense is 24th against the pass and 27th against the run. The Bears can throw and run the ball, this game won’t be close.
Rams +245 (3-3) at Panthers -290 (3-3)
Game Time: 1 PM ET at Bank of America Stadium,
Why? Carolina is 4-2 straight up in its last 6 games when playing at home against St. Louis.
49ers -190 (4-2) at Titans +165 (3-3)
Game Time: 4:05 PM ET at LP Field
Why? Because despite QB Jack Locker was cleared for contact, it might be Ryan Fitzpatrick who starts the game; when the ball is on his hands he’s a turnover waiting to happen.
Browns +390 (3-3) at Packers -475 (3-2)
Game Time: 4:25 PM ET at Lambeau Field
Why? I would take a flyer on the Browns at +390 especially the way they have been competing this season. The Packers only healthy starting WR will be Jordy Nelson and opposing CB Joe Haden won’t give him the space for QB Aaron Rodgers to get him the ball.
Texans +230 (2-4) at Chiefs -275 (6-0)
Game Time: 4:25 PM ET at Arrowhead Stadium
Why? Because the Houston named 3rd string QB Case Keenum as the starter with Schaub hurt and the Chiefs D is the real deal.
Ravens +120 (3-3) at Steelers -140 (1-4)
Game Time: 4:25 PM ET at Heinz Field.
Why? Because Ravens QB Joe Flacco has turned the ball over 12 times and RB Ray Rice hasn’t been able to get loose since injuring his hip earlier in the season.
Pittsburgh is 18-7 SU in its last 25 games when playing at home against Baltimore.
Broncos -265 (6-0) at Colts +225 (4-2)
Game Time: 8:30 PM ET
Why? At -265 the Broncos are a steal. Peyton didn’t need any additional motivation but Colts owner Jim Isray’s comments on Peyton only winning one Super Bowl in Indy will fuel the whole Broncos team to run up the score.