Over/Under Picks NFL Week 14

Odds & Picks To Win The 2017 NFL MVP

If you’re thinking about betting on the possible winner of the 2017 NFL MVP award, the first thing you need to know is that there’s a very strong possibility that a quarterback will win the award.

Four straight – and four different – signal-callers have won the league’s MVP award after former Minnesota Vikings running back Adrian Peterson won the coveted award in 2012. Prior to that, the league’s MVP award was also won by a quarterback in each of the previous five seasons with Tom Brady bagging two (2007, 2010), now retired future Hall of Famer Peyton Manning nabbing two others (2008,2009) and Green Bay Packers superstar Aaron Rodgers winning the other (2011).

Since the award was created in 1957, more quarterbacks have won the prestigious award (40) than every other position combined (21). 18 winners have been running backs, one was Hall of Fame defensive tackle (Alan Page in 1971), one was a place kicker (Mark Moseley in 1982) and one was taken home by incomparable Hall of Fame linebacker Lawrence Taylor in 1986.

In other words, since a whopping 95 percent of past winners have either been quarterbacks or running backs or quarterbacks, you’ll probably want to avoid betting on electrifying wide receivers like Atlanta’s Julio Jones or New York’s popular Odell Beckham Jr.

2017 NFL MVP Odds & Picks

Player Odds
Tom Brady (NE) +450
Aaron Rodgers (GB) +700
Derek Carr (OAK) +900
Ben Roethlisberger (PIT) +1000
Dak Prescott (DAL) +1200
Russell Wilson (SEA) +1200
Matt Ryan (ATL) +1600
Ezekiel Elliott (DAL) +2000
Cam Newton (CAR) +2500
Andrew Luck (IND) +2500
Drew Brees (NO) +2500
David Johnson (ARZ) +3300
Marcus Mariota (TEN) +3300
Le’Veon Bell (PIT) +3300
Antonio Brown (PIT) +5000
Julio Jones (ATL) +5000
Carson Palmer (ARZ) +5000
Sam Bradford (MIN) +5000
Matthew Stafford (DET) +5000
Eli Manning (NYG) +5000
Philip Rivers (LAC) +5000
Adrian Peterson (NO) +5000
Jameis Winston (TB) +5000
Kirk Cousins (WSH) +5000
Alex Smith (KC) +6600
Ryan Tannehill (MIA) +6600
Odell Beckham Jr. (NYG) +6600
JJ Watt (HOU) +6600
Rob Gronkowski (NE) +6600
Khalil Mack (OAK) +6600
TY Hilton (IND) +10000
Von Miller (DEN) +10000
Andy Dalton (CIN) +10000
Carson Wentz (PHI) +10000
Joe Flacco (BAL) +10000
Marshawn Lynch (OAK) +10000
LeSean McCoy (BUF) +10000
Blake Bortles (JAX) +10000
DeMarco Murray (TEN) +10000

The Favorite Pick: Tom Brady +450

It’s funny that, while Brady could go down as the greatest quarterback in NFL history, he’s only got two league MVP awards, which is one fewer than one-time Super Bowl winner Brett Favre. No matter though, Brady is the favorite after completing a blistering 67.4 percent of his passes last season for 3,354 yards with 28 touchdown passes and just two interceptions while leading his New England Patriots to a historic comeback win over Atlanta in Super Bowl 51.

Oh, did I forget to mention that Brady did all of this in just 12 games after being forced by commissioner Roger Goodell to sit out the first four games of the season for his alleged role in the now infamous Deflategate scandal? Maybe it’s me, but just looking at his career timeline, it looks like Brady is due to win another MVP award if you ask me.

The Wiseguy Pick: Aaron Rodgers +700

For me, Aaron Rodgers is the smart pick to win his second career MVP award seeing as how he passed for a stellar 4,428 yards with a whopping 40 touchdown passes and just seven interceptions while completing an efficient 65.7 percent of his passes. More importantly, Rodgers led the Green Bay Packers to a solid 10-6 record and a spot in the NFC Championship game – all after saying that he and his teammates would ‘run the table’ by winning their final six regular season games after a very slow start to the 2016 season.

The bottom line is that there aren’t many if any, quarterbacks as good as Aaron Rodgers in the league today, including Tom Brady. Make no mistake about it, another outstanding regular season that results in a double-digit winning campaign and Rodgers could win the 2017 MVP award!

The Long Shot: Jameis Winston +5000

Winston has passed for over 4,00 yards in each of his two seasons in the league and although he’s tossed double-digit interceptions both times, clearly the former Florida State signal-caller is a franchise quarterback – and a winner that takes pride in his craft. After completing a modest 58.3 percent of his passes as a rookie two years ago, Winston upped that figure to 60.8% last season and will likely continue his maturation process in 2017 from everything I’ve seen.

More importantly, after leading the Buccaneers to a fine, 9-7 record in 2016 and adding two gifted pass-catchers in speedy veteran wideout DeSean Jackson and rookie tight end O.J. Howard, the sky’s the limit for Winston and the Buccaneers moving forward, even if he is a real longshot to bag the 2017 MVP award.

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