Pair of AFC East Teams, One NFC West Doormat, Are All in Trouble!
If there is one thing that this past week taught is that no lead is safe in the current NFL these days. Sunday was filled with enough drama and historic collapses or comebacks (depending on which side you bet) to make every NFL betting fan everywhere was glued to their TVs until the final seconds ticked off the clock.
I expect more of the same this week.
NFL Week 6 Best Bets
Green Bay at Miami
Kickoff: 1:00 PM ET
Spread: Green Bay -3.5
It’s real nice that the Miami Dolphins (2-2 SU, 2-2 ATS) are well-rested and coming off a confidence-boosting 38-14 blowout over the Raiders in Week 4, but the fact of the matter is that Miami – and starting quarterback Ryan Tannehill – are both, mostly mediocre no matter how many pairs of rose-colored glasses you put on.
The Green Bay Packers (3-2 SU, 2-2-1 ATS) and Aaron Rodgers have found their stride in winning each of their last two games while scoring at least 38 points in each, including their emphatic 42-10 beat-down of Minnesota on Sunday.
While I’m not expecting the Dolphins to just roll over against Rodgers and the Packers, I do expect the Packers to win this game and cover the spread with room to spare.
Despite their emphatic win over Oakland, Miami’s offense is mediocre at best as evidenced by the fact they scored just 15 points against the Chiefs in Week 3 and just 10 points against Buffalo one week earlier.
The Packers have topped the 31-point plateau three times this season and can generally score the ball with consistent precision.
With Rodgers back to looking like the best quarterback in the business, I believe the Dolphins are in big trouble in this contest. Sure, the Fins are 10-4 ATS in their L/14 home games, but Green Bay is 5-0 ATS in their last five games in the month of October and a consistent 25-12-1 ATS in their last 38 games after allowing less than 15 points in their previous game.
Keep it simple and back Aaron Rodgers and the Packers – unless you like Ryan Tannehill better!
My Pick: Green Bay -3.5 Points
Denver at NY Jets
Kickoff: 1:00 PM ET
Spread: Denver -6
The Denver Broncos (3-1 SU, 1-3 ATS) and New York Jets (1-4 SU, 0-4-1 AT) will hook up in what looks like one of the biggest mismatches on the entire Week 6 docket, but that’s okay, because this game represents – free money if you ask me!
The Jets looked completely lost and bewildered in their pitiful 31-0 Week 5 loss to San Diego as a 7-point road dog while Denver laid a surprising 41-20 smackdown on Arizona to cash in as an 8-point home fave on Sunday.
The Jets have now lost four straight while not scoring more than 24 points while Denver has scored at least that figure in each of their three wins and 31 or more points twice.
More importantly, Jets head coach Rex Ryan is totally delusional in thinking that starting quarterback Geno Smith gives his team the best chance of winning – particularly when he’s throwing interceptions like they’re going out of style.
The Broncos are 5-1 ATS in their last half-dozen road games against a team with a losing home record and a blistering 9-3 ATS in their last 12 games against a team with a losing record.
The Jets are 0-4 ATS in their last four games following an SU loss and 0-4-1 ATS in their last five games overall.
I fully expect the Broncos to have this game well in hand by the time halftime rolls around – and you should too!
My Pick: Denver Broncos -6 Points
San Francisco at St. Louis
When: Monday, Oct. 13
Kickoff: 8:30 PM ET
Spread: San Francisco -4
The San Francisco 49ers (3-2 SU, 2-3 ATS) have won two straight, hard-fought games including their 22-17 Week 5 win over Kansas City as a 4.5-point home favorite.
The St. Louis Rams (1-3 SU, 1-3 ATS) have dropped two straight, including their heartbreaking 34-28 Week 5 loss to Philadelphia as a 3.5-point home dog.
The recent play of both of these longtime NFC West division rivals makes me believe the outcome of this contest is more of a lock than anything else.
San Francisco won both regular season meetings against the Rams last season and have won four of the last six meetings against St. Louis overall.
However, that’s not why I like Frisco this time around. I like Colin Kaepernick and company to get the big win in this contest simply because they know they can’t afford a division loss to a banged-up Rams team that is playing an inexperienced quarterback in third-year signal-caller Austin Davis, though he did play well against Philly last weekend.
I fully expect San Francisco’s perennially stout defensive unit to get after Davis and force him into a couple of costly turnovers that helped fuel a huge, double-digit win for San Francisco.
The Niners are 9-3 ATS in their last 12 road games and 5-2 ATS in their last seven games against a team with a losing record while the Rams have gone 1-4 ATS in their last five games against a team with a winning record and a dismal 1-5 ATS in their last six games against their NFC West division rivals.
My Pick: San Francisco 31 St. Louis 14