Packers Vs Falcons Line & Expert Pick

NFL Preseason Week 4 Free Picks Picks

Packers Vs Falcons Line & Expert Pick

Does defense win championships anymore?

The Packers finished 21st in points allowed. The Falcons finished 27th. And yet, one of them will win the NFC Championship Game on Sunday in Atlanta. Then the winner will make a case for the offense versus defense debate against the AFC Champion, either the Patriots or Steelers.

The Packers Vs Falcons NFL betting spread favors Atlanta by 5 -points. Kick-off is this Sunday, January 22nd at 3:05 PM ET on FOX from the Georgia Dome in Atlanta.

Green Bay Packers Vs Atlanta Falcons Line & Expert Pick

What: NFC Championship Game
Who: Green Bay Packers (10-6) at Atlanta Falcons (11-5)
When: Sunday, January 22, 2017
Start Time: 3:05 PM ET  
Where: Atlanta, GA
Stadium: Georgia Dome
Spread: Falcons -5
Moneyline: Atlanta -220
Game Total: 60.5
Watch: FOX Sports
Stream: Fox Sports Go
Listen: Green Bay vs Atlanta

Why Bet The Green Bay Packers To Beat The Falcons

The Green Bay Packers are red hot, running the table in their last eight. Last week, they beat the hottest team in the league, downing the Dallas Cowboys in a fantastic 34-31 game, covering the spread as a4.5-point dogs. Green Bay is 12-6 SU and 10-7-1 ATS including the regular season and the playoffs. They average 27.0 points per game (4th) and allow 24.3 points per game (21st).

The Packers average 262.4 passing yards per game (7th). QB Aaron Rodgers (4428 yards, 40 TDs & 7 INTs) is on a fantastic form. He has thrown 21 touchdown passes and just one interception in their last eight games.

"I love that part; I love the challenge," Rodgers said. "I love the opportunity to go out there and make plays."

During the aforementioned 8 game winning streak, Rodgers has posted a 117.9 passer rating with 298.0 yards per game, 68.9 percent accuracy, 21 touchdowns and one interception. For the season, Rodgers threw for 4,428 yards with 40 touchdowns and seven interceptions.

WR Jordy Nelson (97 rec, 1257 yards, 14 TDs) missed last week’s game with a ribs injury. His status is questionable to face Atlanta after being limited in practice this week. WR Randall Cobb (60 rec, 610 yards, 4 TDs) has put up gaudy numbers in the Packers two playoff games, 178 yards and three touchdowns. Green Bay averages 106.3 rushing yards per game (20th). Converted rusher Ty Montgomery (77 car, 457 yards, 3 TDs) hasn’t been a factor in this postseason regarding yards with 74, but his two TDs last week were big.

The Green Bay Packers have the 22nd-ranked total defense in the NFL. They allow 269.0 passing yards per game (31st) and 94.7 rushing yards per game (8th) during the regular season. They recorded 40 sacks this season (6th). S Morgan Burnett led the team in the regular season with 93 tackles, and LB Nick Perry had 11.0 sacks.

Why Bet The Atlanta Falcons To Beat The Packers

The Atlanta Falcons are in the NFC Championship game after knocking off the Seattle Seahawks by a 36-20 score last week. They are 12-5 SU and 11-6 ATS this season including the playoffs. They average 33.8 points per game (1st) and allow 25.4 points per game (27th).

The Falcons average 295.3 passing yards per game (3rd). Thanks to QB Matt Ryan (4944 yards, 38 TDs & 7 INTs) the Falcons scored 71 more points than any other team in the NFL. Ryan’s 117.1 passer rating not only led the NFL but was the fifth-best in NFL history. He threw for 4,944 yards with 38 touchdowns and seven interceptions. He topped 100 in passer rating in 12 of 16 regular-season games, then did it again against Seattle in the divisional round. He completed 26 of 37 passes for 338 yards, and three touchdowns against the Seahawks.

The Falcons enter the game on a five-game winning streak. Ryan has 14 touchdown passes and zero interceptions during the five-game streak.

WR Julio Jones (83 rec, 1409 yards, 6 TDs) aggravated a toe injury Saturday but expects to play in the NFC Championship Game on Sunday despite missing practice for the second consecutive day Thursday.

"For us, we’re going to stick with the same plan: We’ll limit him throughout the week, and then as the week progresses, we’ll give him a little more at the end," Falcons head coach Dan Quinn said. "That will be the plan moving forward for us. He’s excited to play, but we’ll make sure he gets the looks that are really specific to him. For him and his foot, he’ll be ready to rock."

Atlanta averages 120.5 rushing yards per game (5th). RB Devonta Freeman (227 car, 1079 yards, 11 TDs) had four catches for 80 yards against Seattle. He’s a double-threat coming off the backfield.

Atlanta has the 25th-ranked total defense in the NFL. They allow 267.0 passing yards per game (28th) and 104.5 rushing yards per game. The Falcons recorded 34 sacks this season (16th). LB Deion Jones recorded 108 tackles this season and LB Vic Beasley Jr. led the NFL with 15.5 sacks.

If You Still Can’t Decide Who To Bet On:

  • Packers are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 playoff road games.
  • Packers are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games as a favorite.
  • Packers are 5-0 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.
  • Falcons are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 playoff games.
  • Falcons are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 vs. NFC.

Packets Vs Falcons Expert Pick & Final Score Prediction

66% of the public is on Green Bay. The Packers have a long tradition of being a public team. Their eight-game winning streak (7-1 ATS) after Rodgers prophetic declaration of running the table only adds to their mystique. I am a believer.

The Falcons also have been very popular this season with their high-powered No. 2-ranked offense and league-high 33.8 points per game, plus they’re on a nearly as impressive run of 6-1 straight up and 5-2 ATS (and 11-6 ATS overall compared to 11-6-1 ATS for Green Bay), but the public is still decisively on the Packers by a 2-to-1 margin.

The NFC Championship betting line opened with the Falcons favored by 4. Early wiseguy money bet it up to -5.5, but then the flood of public money drove it back down to 4 before settling at 4.5. Sharps still side with the Falcons, and the line is now ATL -5.

Don’t be afraid to bet the OVER. Both offenses are playing lights out.

My final score prediction is Green Bay 35, Atlanta 34.