Patriots Vs Falcons Spread & Pick

Patriots Vs Falcons Spread & Pick

Patriots Vs Falcons Spread & Pick

The New England Patriots and Atlanta Falcons will go head-to-head in Super Bowl LI on Sunday, February 5 at 6:30 p.m. ET in Houston. Super Bowl 51’s betting spread favors the Patriots by an FG. Coverage beings at 11 a.m. until kickoff, with the pregame highlight being a four-and-a-half-hour Fox NFL Sunday show starting at 2 p.m.

New England Patriots Vs Atlanta Falcons Spread & ATS Pick

What: Super Bowl LI
Who: New England Patriots (14-2) vs Atlanta Falcons (11-5)
When: Sunday, February 5, 2017
Start Time: 6:30 PM ET  
Where: Houston, TX
Stadium: NRG Stadium
Spread: Patriots -3
Moneyline: New England -150 vs Atlanta +140
Game Total: 59.5
Watch: FOX Sports
Stream: Fox Sports Go
Announcers: Joe Buck, Troy Aikman, Erin Andrews & Chris Myers
Listen: New England vs Atlanta

Why Bet The New England Patriots To Beat The Falcons

The New England Patriots will make their historical 9th Super Bowl appearance after beating Pittsburgh Steelers 36-17 in the AFC Championship game two weeks ago. They are 16-2 SU and 15-3 ATS including the regular season and the playoffs. They averaged 27.4 points per game (3rd) and allowed 15.6 points per game (1st) during the regular season.

The Patriots average 269.3 passing yards per game (4th). QB Tom Brady (3554 yards, 28 TDs & 2 INTs) had a Brady-esque game versus the Steelers. He completed 32 of 42 passes for 384 yards and three touchdowns. This will be his 7th Super Bowl, which will be a record for the NFL.

"We won a lot of different ways under a lot of different circumstances," Brady said. "Mental toughness is what it is all about, and this team has got it. We’ll see if we can write the perfect ending."

WR Chris Hogan (38 rec, 680 yards, 4 TDs) had an unbelievable game against the Steelers. He caught nine passes for 180 yards and two touchdowns. WR Julian Edelman (98 rec, 1106 yards, 3 TDs) also surpassed the 100-receiving yard mark versus Pittsburgh. He had eight receptions for 118 yards and one touchdown. The Patriots average 117.0 rushing yards per game (7th). They haven’t recorded a 100-rushing yard game in the playoffs this season.

New England had the 8th best total defense in the NFL during the regular season. They allow 238.0 passing yards per game (12th) and 88.6 rushing yards per game (3rd).

Why Bet The Atlanta Falcons To Beat The Patriots

The Atlanta Falcons looked like a team that could keep up with the Patriots in their 44-21 win over the Green Bay Packers in the NFC Championship game. The Falcons advanced to the Super Bowl only for the second time in history and first since 1998. They are 13-5 SU and 12-6 ATS including the playoffs this season. They average 33.8 points per game (1st) and give up 25.4 points per game (27th).

The Falcons average 295.3 passing yards per game (3rd). QB Matt Ryan (4944 yards, 38 TDs & 7 INTs) set an NFL record by throwing a touchdown pass to 13 different receivers. Two weeks ago, Ryan carved up Green Bay’s secondary with 392 yards, four touchdowns after completing 27 of 38 passes.

"We’ll enjoy it because it’s hard to get to this point. I know that from experience," Ryan said. "But our ultimate goal is still in front of us."

WR Julio Jones (83 rec, 1409 yards, 6 TDs) had a field day against the Pack, catching nine passes for 180 yards and two touchdowns. Lining up with him are WRs Taylor “Turbo” Gabriel, a diminutive speed threat, and Mohamed Sanu who is a reliable possession receiver opposite Jones.

The Falcons average 120.5 rushing yards per game (5th). Between RB Devonta Freeman (227 car, 1079 yards, 11 TDs), RB Tevin Coleman (118 car, 520 yards, 8 TDs) and Matt Ryan, they ran for 101 yards against Green Bay. Both Coleman and Freeman are basically receivers and running backs.

Atlanta has the 25th total defense in the NFL. They give up 267.0 passing yards per game (28th) and 104.5 rushing yards per game (17th). The Falcons allowed 367 total yards from Green Bay and 24 points, but most of the damage came in garbage time.

If You Still Can’t Decide Who To Bet On:

  • Falcons are 2-6 ATS in their last 8 playoff games.
  • Falcons are 20-7 ATS in their last 27 games as an underdog.
  • Falcons are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games overall.
  • Patriots are 13-3 ATS in their last 16 games as a favorite.
  • Patriots are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 Super Bowl games.

Expert ATS Pick & Final Score Prediction

The public is decidedly on the favored Patriots, and other bet-tracking sites also have pick percentages in the mid-60s. That’s understandable. New England is by far the more popular team in sports betting circles and has an NFL-best 15-3 ATS this season for its backers (12-2 ATS since Tom Brady served a four-game suspension to start the season).

The Falcons have become more of a public team this season, with the No. 1 scoring offense at 33.8 points per game in the regular season and two routs in the playoffs that have improved them to 12-6 ATS overall, but their support from the public still pales compared with New England’s.

The Falcons are considered the “sharp” side in this Super Bowl. Professional bettors have snatched up the +3.5s when they’ve become available, and some books reported sharp action at +3 (EVEN) to keep those books from going to 3.5 despite the onslaught of public action. But there are certainly plenty of sharps also siding with the Patriots.

My final score prediction is Atlanta 30, New England 31.