NFL Passing Yards Leader Prop Bet Picks

Opening Week NFL Super Bowl 51 Picks

NFL Passing Yards Leader Prop Bet Picks

Since the 2016 is kicking off in mere weeks, future prop bets on all sorts of NFL categories have popped up. One such category is NFL Passing Yards Leader.

As to be expected, Drew Brees, who seems to lead the league in passing yards every season, is the 5 to 1 favorite. Brees is followed closely by Big Ben Roethlisberger. The Pittsburgh quarterback is a 5.5 to 1 second choice. Missing from the list is Tom Brady, who will miss the first four games of the season due to suspension. However the Pats are still the odds-on favorite to win Super Bowl 51.

Analyzing My NFL Passing Yards Leader Prop Bet Picks

There are a lot of QBs with a shot to lead the NFL in passing yards this season who are offering generous odds. Is Brees or Big Ben worth a wager at the low odds? Should you bet on a longshot pick to lead the league in passing yards? Keep reading for answers to those questions and more.

The Odds-On Favorite To Lead The NFL In Passing Yards: Drew Brees +500

Going against Brees might seem like madness until one realizes that Sean Payton, Brees, and GM Mickey Loomis want to extend Drew’s career. Sure, there hasn’t been much talk yet about a contract extension. Maybe, the Saints want to see how Drew responds during training camp before shelling out what could be a record contract. No matter, the Saints want Brees to stay in New Orleans.

The contract isn’t the issue. The issue is that the Saints, for a long time, have wanted to be more of a rushing team. Payton wants to slow the offense down so that he can protect his moribund defense from having to stop Cam Newton, Matt Ryan, and now Jameis Winston. For the Saints to go to the playoffs, they have to control the clock by running the football. That’s why Brees is a bad bet at 5 to 1 to lead the NFL in passing yards.

The Smart Bet To Lead The NFL In Passing Yards: Aaron Rodgers +1200

Green Bay is another team that would prefer to run the football more than it does. Having a slimmed down Eddie Lacy should help them do that. But Aaron Rodgers gets WR Jordy Nelson back this season. Nelson was a monster for the Packers in 2014. He was their leader in yards as well as touchdowns. Without him in 2015, Rodgers had the third worst QB rating of his career. With Nelson, in 2014, Rodgers threw for 4,381 yards.

I’m willing to bet at 12 to 1 that Rodgers gets close to 4,500 yards. Will it be enough for Rodgers to be this season’s NFL Passing Yards Leader?  I don’t know. But, I know that he’ll be close enough for the 12 to 1 odds to be a smart bet.

The Longshot Bet To Lead The NFL In Passing Yards: Tony Romo +3300

In 2012, Romo threw for 4,903 yards. Granted, he hasn’t thrown for over 4,000 yards since then, but the Dallas Cowboys offense hasn’t had a running back quite like Ezekiel Elliott in a while, either. Elliott has great hands. WR Dez Bryant will, hopefully, be healthy before the first regular season game and TE Jason Witten is still one of the best in the NFL. There’s a reason that Romo is at 33 to 1 odds to lead the NFL in passing yards this season. He’s a longshot. But I think he’s a longshot worth taking.

NFL Betting Odds To Lead The League In Passing Yards

Drew Brees +500
Ben Roethlisberger +550
Philip Rivers +700
Matt Ryan +850
Eli Manning +1000
Carson Palmer +1200
Aaron Rodgers +1200
Kirk Cousins +1600
Andrew Luck +1600
Tom Brady +2000
Matthew Stafford +2000
Joe Flacco +2500
Blake Bortles +2800
Tony Romo +3300
Derek Carr +3300
Ryan Tannehill +3300
Brock Osweiler +4000
Andy Dalton +6600
Russell Wilson +6600
Cam Newton +6600
Jameis Winston +6600
Marcus Mariota +8000
Jay Cutler +8000
Alex Smith +10000
Robert Griffin III +12500
Teddy Bridgewater +12500
Tyrod Taylor +15000
Sam Bradford +17500
Jared Goff +20000
Mark Sanchez +20000
Colin Kaepernick +20000
Blaine Gabbert +20000
Geno Smith +20000
Carson Wentz +20000
Josh McCown +25000
Jimmy Garoppolo +25000
Paxton Lynch +30000