Are the Atlanta Falcons a smart NFL bet?

NFL Receiving Yards Leader Prop Bet Picks

Throwing the football is all the rage in the NFL. New Orleans and New England has had a drastic effect on the way that offensive coordinators approach the game. The NFL is a pass first league now. The question I will try to answer today is: who will lead the league in receiving yards this year?

Pittsburgh’s Antonio Brown and Atlanta’s Julio Jones are co-favorites to be the receiving yards leader. But is either a good bet at drastically low odds?  Who is the smart bet to be the WR that covers the most distance via catches from their quarterback for the season? Is there a longshot bet that looks particularly appealing to be the leader in receiving yards?

Analyzing My NFL Receiving Yards Leader Prop Bet Picks

The Odds-On Favorite Pick To Lead The NFL In Receiving Yards: Antonio Brown, Julio Jones +350

Antonio Brown – Pittsburgh’s brilliant WR is considered by many fantasy football fans to be the safest pick this season. When it comes to betting on future props, safe doesn’t translate to profits. Brown figures to get his share of receiving yards this season. He had 1,834 in 2015. It’s hard for me to see him getting as many in 2016 because Martavis Bryant, once again, has to sit out at least part of the season due to suspension. Plus, RB Le’Veon Bell is supposedly healthy.

Julio Jones – I can’t back Julio Jones to lead the NFL in receiving yards at +350. The Atlanta Falcons WR is one of the best in the NFL. No doubt he has the talent to be the best in the NFL. But, his QB, Matt Ryan, can flounder at times. More importantly, I don’t have faith in offensive coordinator Kyle Shanahan. I just don’t think that he’s creative enough.  

The Smart Pick To Lead The NFL In Receiving Yards: Jordy Nelson +1400

There’s no telling how good Nelson will play after such a devastating injury in 2015. Nelson missed the entire 2015 NFL Season due to an injury he suffered before the season even started. My guess, is that Nelson should return to his 2014 form where he posted 1,519 receiving yards. In fact, I think he’s going to be even better in 2016. The Green Bay Packers weren’t nearly as scary to opposing defenses last season as they were when Nelson was on the field. QB Aaron Rodgers had a so-so 2015 without his favorite target.

It was almost unbearable to watch opposing defense try to cover Jordy Nelson in 2014. I’ll take a chance that a better version of the 2014 Jordy Nelson shows up in 2016 at 14 to 1.

The Longshot Pick To Lead The NFL In Receiving Yards: Allen Robinson +2800

28 to 1 odds make Jacksonville’s Allen Robinson the best bet on the board to lead the NFL in receiving yards. Robinson caught only 80 passes last season. He gained 1400 yards. If Robinson can push that number to 100 or so catches, which is possible based on how well QB Blake Bortles has developed, Robinson would end up close to leading the NFL in yardage reception. At 28 to 1, he’s worth a shot.

Complete NFL Receiving Yards Leader Prop Bet Odds

Antonio Brown +350
Julio Jones +350
DeAndre Hopkins +1000
Odell Beckham +1000
Jordy Nelson +1400
AJ Green +1600
Alshon Jeffery +2500
Dez Bryant +2500
Allen Robinson +2800
Amari Cooper +2800
Brandon Marshall +3300
Demaryius Thomas +3300
Keenan Allen +3300
Mike Evans +3300
T.Y. Hilton +3300
Brandin Cooks +4000
Rob Gronkowski +4000
Sammy Watkins +4000
Golden Tate +5000
Jarvis Landry +5000
Jeremy Maclin +5000
Doug Baldwin +6600
Eric Decker +6600
Kelvin Benjamin +6600
Julian Edelman +7500
DeSean Jackson +8000
Donte Moncrief +8000
Emmanuel Sanders +8000
John Brown +8000
Jordan Matthews +8000
Larry Fitzgerald +8000
Marvin Jones +8000
Willie Snead +8000
Kevin White +10000
Laquan Treadwell +10000
Michael Crabtree +10000
Michael Floyd +10000
Allen Hurns +12500
Greg Olsen +12500
Markus Wheaton +12500
Randall Cobb +12500
Stefon Diggs +12500
Torrey Smith +12500
Will Fuller +12500
Corey Coleman +15000
DeVante Parker +15000
Jordan Reed +15000
Steve Smith +15000
Vincent Jackson +15000
Travis Kelce +17500


Posted in NFL