What Is NFL Sharp Money & Other Betting Trends 

What Is NFL Sharp Money & Other Betting Trends 

What Is NFL Sharp Money & Other Betting Trends 

There are certain NFL betting trends that can be used to your advantage. One of those the most popular NFL betting trends to track is known as going with sharp money. But what exactly is sharp money? And, when it comes to the NFL, what does sharp money really mean? Keep reading as I delve into NFL sharp money betting trends and how they can benefit your sports betting bankroll.

NFL Betting Sharp Money Explained

It’s true that sportsbooks don’t mind about getting 50% on both sides of a wager. If sportsbooks can do that, they can pay one side off with the bets from the other side. But this isn’t a golden rule. A lot of times, sportsbooks prefer receiving large wagers that move the line. This is true for one main reason.

There are way more public, casual, bettors than professional bettors. Something like 80% of wagers, wagers from non-professional bettors, goes to the favorite. What it means is that sharp money, money from professional bettors that move the line, often times goes to the underdog. This is true because sharp money only goes to what pro bettors see as value bets.

Think about it this way, public money can drive a line either way depending on how much of that money is bet through the sportsbook. There is no rule that says odds makers have to change the line. The reason that odds makers change lines, especially why they change lines early, is so that they can see where the sharp money is coming from.

Why is it important to know where the sharp money is coming from – Sportsbooks have records on wales, the big dogs that place large enough sharp money wagers to change a line. Let’s take an example game and analyze it for sharp money trends.

  • Oakland  +9.5
  • Kansas City -9.5

Let’s say that as soon as the line open, the sportsbook starts receiving wagers on Kansas City. They receive enough wagers where they feel it’s necessary to send the line up to KC -10. At this point, a couple of things are likely to happen depending on what sharp players believe is value.

If a sharp believes that -10 on KC constitutes value, a large bet will be placed on the Chiefs. Depending on the sportsbook, the line may move. It may not. Usually, if only one sportsbook, say the sportsbook at the Bellagio, receives a huge enough wager to move the line, the other sportsbook in Vegas will move the line as well. If the line goes up to KC -10.5, I call it a sharps favorite trend.

If the sharps bet on Oakland, and the line moves down to 9.5 again, I call it a sharp dog trend. Most of the time, this is what will happen. Think about Super Bowl 50 when the line moved all the way to Carolina -5.5 before sharp money pushed it to Carolina -3.5. There comes a point where the sportsbook has to move the line.

It’s to the sportsbook’s advantage to know where the sharp money is going. Sharps, the pros, will always be more right than the public. Sportsbooks use this knowledge to their advantage.

After a large enough sharp money bet, a sportsbook could decide to change a line so that more public money goes the other way. In this case, the sportsbook might just want to make a killing because they believe that the sharps are correct. If they don’t believe that the sharps are correct, they could change the line to work towards a 50%-50% split. Either way, knowing who the sharps like on either side of a spread bet is significant knowledge to the sportsbook.

A real important trend for sports bettors that has to do with sharp money is the follow the money trend. It comes from horse racing. There are a lot of horseplayers who wait until they see a huge move in the odds of a horse. If the odds move holds, they bet on that horse.

The same is true for sports betting. If 80% of the wagers are on the favorite, and a big money wager changes the line so that the favorite is even more of a favorite, sports bettors should wait until the last moment to make their bet. Pros are always looking for value. If the line changes by a point, say, 10 minutes before kick-off in any NFL game, casual sports bettors can rest assured that the line they get at that time is most likely a value line. Pros wait to bet after all of the dumb money has driven a line up. This is why so many line changes occur within an hour before a game starts.