NFL Kansas City Chiefs Tamba Hali

NFL Spread Betting Picks – Were the Chiefs Built To Tame The Broncos?

If you ask the oddsmakers, the biggest game of Week 11 is going to be an NFL spread betting blowout by the home team. But the Sunday Night Football barn burner between the Kansas City Chiefs and Denver Broncos promises to be a thriller. You should expect nothing less when the league’s top ranked offence locks horns with the best defense out there.

However, those stats don’t tell the whole story. Despite what you may think of the Chiefs offence, this team actually boasts a strong point differential of +11.3 points. By comparison, the Broncos have a +14.8 scoring differential, leading the league in scoring with a mind numbing 41.2 points scored on average. Everyone wants to talk about Peyton Manning dominant offence, but the old adage “defense wins championship” exists for a reason.

Kansas City vs Denver Broncos
The Denver Broncos host the undefeated Kansas City Chiefs on Sunday Night Football.
Starts: 11/17/2013 8:30PM
Sports Authority Field at Mile High, 1701 Bryant St.
Denver, Colorado


After going just 2-14 SU last year as the league’s worst team, the Chiefs rebuilt over the summer and constructed a roster that was designed to challenge their biggest playoff roadblock – the division rival Broncos who dominated the NFL last year as well. They have a dominant front four, and a hyper athletic linebacking corps led by Derrick Johnson. They can get after you whenever they please by creating pressure in the pocket. The Chiefs are not only the best scoring defense in the NFL, they also have the most turnovers (23) of any team. That’s why there’s a large contingent that believes that they can cover in NFL spread betting this weekend despite playing on the road.

Obviously, the best way to give yourself a chance against the Broncos is to keep Manning on the sidelines. Why do you think they brought in Alex Smith? He’s not the greatest quarterback ever, but he’s an under appreciated cerebral assassin who can carve up defenses. He takes what opposing defenses give him every time, and is super protective of the football as well. Smith has thrown just four interceptions all year, and hasn’t been unleashed this season because he hasn’t had to win games on his own merits. The combined efforts of Jamaal Charles and this stingy defense have made the Chiefs a complete team.

No matter what you say about Denver, you can hardly call them a balanced squad. Denver’s blistering offence is to be feared, but their defense has given up 39 points against Indianapolis, 48 against Dallas and 27 against Baltimore. Smith will be able to terrorize a pass defense that allows 287.9 yards per game (30th in the NFL). Everyone has earmarked the Broncos defense as their biggest weakness, and that’s a huge problem. It’s not like their secondary or the front-four are the problem – it’s the whole unit.


Sun, 11-17-2013
NY Jets
Buffalo Bills
NYJ +1
Sun, 11-17-2013
ARZ -7.5
Sun, 11-17-2013
San Diego
SD -1
Sun, 11-17-2013
HOU -7.5
Sun, 11-17-2013
CLE +5.5

The NFL spread betting trends for both teams will be strong because of the seasons that they’re having, but Denver has become a tumultuous take in the sportsbook. After smoking Philadelphia in the final weekend of September, they went just 1-3 ATS during the month of October and barely covered against San Diego to kick off November. Their Swiss cheese secondary makes Denver consistently vulnerable to being chased down on the scoreboard. Again, I think Kansas City has some sneaky trick up their sleeves. We haven’t seen their best this season because – undefeated or not – it was always important to Andy Reid to keep some secrets for the two Denver games they have in the next three weeks.

It’s easy to get caught up in to the excitement of the Broncos. For the most part they’ve been a strong take on the board. But they have defensive issues that Kansas City can take advantage of. The Chiefs have built their undefeated record on the backs of a rigid defensive front that denies scores and generates turnovers. As long as that same defense shows up on Sunday, they have a fighting chance against a bloated NFL spread.

Now is the time where Kansas City’s offence needs to step up. And I bet you that they will.

NFL Spread Betting Pick – Kansas City +9.5 (OVER)

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