NFL Spread Betting Tips On QBsJosh Bailey
Injuries play a big part in NFL betting spread movements for every single game. If a major player is injured, the line could move a half a point to a point. If that major injury occurs to the quarterback, the line could move much more than that. But how much, exactly, is an NFL starting quarterback worth to the point spread? The question is much harder to answer than many might believe.
Sure, it’s easy to come up with an answer for quarterbacks at San Francisco, Blaine Gabbert and Colin Kaepernick. Neither one of those guys being out should change a point spread more than 0 to 1 point. But what about players like Aaron Rodgers, Tom Brady, Cam Newton and Drew Brees? By looking at these 4 quarterbacks, I might be able to come up with a rough answer to the question.
Analyzing The QB Stats Applied To NFL Spread Betting Tips
Aaron Rodgers, Green Bay
Rodgers is worth 6 to 7 points on the spread on his own. Rodgers played in every single game and Green Bay went 9 and 7 against the spread. The only time that Green Bay was a double-digit favorite was in 2 home games, versus San Diego and versus Detroit.
Tom Brady, New England
The Patriots went 7-7-2 against the spread last season. Brady played in every game. The Patriots were only dogs in 1 game last season. It was Week 2 versus the Buffalo Bills on the road where New England was a +2 point underdog. Brady is supposed to be worth 6 to 7 points.
Cam Newton, Carolina
The Panthers went 11-5 ATS last season with Newton playing in every regular season game. What’s interesting is that Carolina went 9 and 2 ATS before going 2 and 3 ATS in their final 5 games. Cam is supposed to be worth 6 to 7 points.
Drew Brees, New Orleans
The Saints went 8-7-1 ATS last season. Brees is supposed to be worth a 5 to 6-point line change. The Saints were only favored in 7 games last season.
The NFL QBs Who Are Worth 6-7 Points Against The Spread
|Aaron Rodgers||Green Bay Packers||78-51|
|Andrew Luck||Indianapolis Colts||37-23|
|Ben Roethlisberger||Pittsburgh Steelers||94-87|
|Cam Newton||Carolina Panthers||48-35|
|Tom Brady||New England Patriots||123-90|
The NFL QBs Who Are Worth 5-6 Points Against The Spread
|Carson Palmer||Arizona Cardinals||77-82|
|Drew Brees||New Orleans Saints||110-94|
|Eli Manning||New York Giants||101-87|
|Joe Flacco||Baltimore Ravens||68-62|
|Russell Wilson||Seattle Seahawks||44-28|
|Tony Romo||Dallas Cowboys||63-67|
The NFL QBs Who Are Worth 3-5 Points Against The Spread
|Andy Dalton||Cincinnati Bengals||44-30|
|Blake Bortles||Jacksonville Jaguars||13-14|
|Kirk Cousins||Washington Redskins||13-13|
|Matt Ryan||Atlanta Falcons||66-62|
|Matthew Stafford||Detroit Lions||39-53|
|Philip Rivers||San Diego Chargers||87-78|
The NFL QBs Who Are Worth 2-4 Points Against The Spread
|Derek Carr||Oakland Raiders||16-16|
|Jameis Winston||Tampa Bay Buccaneers||7-9|
|Marcus Mariota||Tennessee Titans||3-8|
|Ryan Tannehill||Miami Dolphins||28-35|
|Teddy Bridgewater||Minnesota Vikings||23-6|
|Tyrod Taylor||Buffalo Bills||8-5|
The NFL QBs Who Are Worth 1-3 Points Against The Spread
|Brock Osweiler||Houston Texans||3-4|
|Alex Smith||Kansas City Chiefs||68-61|
|Jay Cutler||Chicago Bears||54-79|
The NFL QBs Who Are Worth 0-1 Points Against The Spread
|Cleveland Browns||Josh McCown||Robert Griffin III|
|Denver Broncos||Mark Sanchez||Trevor Siemian|
|Los Angeles Rams||Case Keenum||Jared Goff|
|New York Jets||Geno Smith||Ryan Fitzpatrick?|
|Philadelphia Eagles||Sam Bradford||Chase Daniel|
|San Francisco 49ers||Blaine Gabbert||Colin Kaepernick|
One thing I know for sure is that when it comes to NFL spread betting, QB stats do mean something. For example, Green Bay, New England and Carolina all made the playoffs last season. Once odds makers got wind that Cam Newton and Carolina were tearing it up ATS, they started making Cam and the Panthers cover larger and larger spreads.
Then again, all 3 of those teams are good teams. A bad team, New Orleans, with a great QB in Drew Brees went 8-7-1 ATS. What it comes down to, I think, is continuing to look for value. Carolina may be a value play at -3 in one game with Cam Newton out. Or, they might be a non-value play at -6 against a bad team like the Cleveland Browns with Cam Newton in.
I definitely believe that odds makers take into account the quarterback for each team in every single NFL game. But, I think that most of what odds makers are thinking about has to do with perception. Odds makers know that pro bettors will only make value wagers. So, if the public perception, as an example, is that the Patriots will be great because of Tom Brady, odds makers might create a line that has the Patriots as bigger favorites than they normally would be. Odds makers, like all of us, know that 80% of betting money goes on the favorites. Why risk that by over thinking it? Brady and the Patriots are a popular favorite.
There are some cool tips that we can gather from all of this. First, realize that the public is going to bet on popular teams with popular quarterbacks. Odds makers know this. That’s why popular teams with popular quarterbacks often times don’t offer value. Second, the public is almost always going to lean towards betting on favorites. Third, if you want to make money like a pro sports bettor, you have to think like one. Wait until some of the public money has been bet on the favorite before deciding if the line is a value play on the dog or the favorite ATS.