Against The Spread Week 13 NFL Lock Picks

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Against The Spread Week 13 NFL Lock Picks

With the official end of the NFL season 4 weeks away, many teams will look to avoid being eliminated from playoff contention in week 13. The NFL oddsmakers believe that most if not all of the games will be close this week because none of the week 13 NFL betting favorites opened as double-digit favorites. This does make picking a few against the spread winners a more challenging task, but I am up for it.

Analyzing My Week 13 Against The Spread Lock Picks

Matchup: San Diego Chargers at Baltimore Ravens  
Date: Nov. 30, 2014  
Start Time: 1:00 p.m. ET  
Location: Baltimore, Maryland
Stadium: M&T Bank Stadium 
TV Info: CBS 
Radio:  San Diego Vs  Baltimore 
Point Spread: Ravens -5
Game Total: 44.5

Phillip Rivers, Antonio Gates and San Diego Super Chargers will travel to Baltimore to take on Joe Flacco, Steve Smith Sr. and the Ravens in a Week 13 matchup with major playoff implications. The Chargers, who currently sit in 3rd in the AFC West, were shut out in their last trip to the east coast and the Ravens will try to duplicate the Miami Dolphins’ dominant performance.

Baltimore is log jammed in a tight AFC North race and a loss in this game will almost certainly doom the Ravens’ playoff chances. At 7-4 the Ravens are in a three-way tie with Pittsburgh & Cleveland for second place in the division. At least one wild card team will come from the AFC North, but the winner and a first-round home game is still up for grabs.

The Chargers are 1-7 ATS in their last 8 games in November and 0-6 ATS in their last 6 games overall. The Ravens are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 home games and 2-7-1 ATS in their last 10 vs. AFC. The Chargers are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 meetings and the home team is 7-3 ATS in their last 10 meetings.

Against The Spread Week 13 Lock Pick: Ravens -5

Matchup: Washington at Indianapolis Colts 
Date: Nov. 30, 2014 
Start Time: 1:00 p.m. ET 
Location: Indianapolis, Indianapolis
Stadium: Lucas Oil Stadium
TV Info: FOX 
Radio: Washington Vs Indianapolis 
Point Spread: Colts -9.5 
Game Total: 51

It will be Colt McCoy, not Robert Griffin III, who will lead the Washington NFL franchise into Lucas Oil Stadium to face Andrew Lucky, T.Y. Hilton and the Indianapolis Colts in week 13.

Washington is in last place in the NFC East as they continue to search for answers. The Redskins offense is averaging 19.7 points and 365.2 yards per game combined behind RG III, Kirk Cousins and Colt McCoy this season. The only bright spot this season was the play of McCoy in the only game he started and won against the Cowboys on Oct 27th.

The Indianapolis Colts are in first place in the AFC South and are a virtual lock for the playoffs this season behind the stellar play of Luck, who has completed 63.4 percent of his passes with 29 touchdowns and 10 interceptions. The Colts offense is averaging 30.3 points and a NFL best 433.8 yards per game, however their season will live or die depending on how their defense holds up. The Indy D is allowing 23.3 points and 359.3 yards per game and they are net zero in turnover ratio. 

Indianapolis is 17-4 against the spread against a team with a losing record, 7-2 against the spread in their last nine games, and 19-7 against the spread in their last 26 home games. Washington is 2-6 against the spread in their last eight games, 1-5 against the spread following a loss, and 2-9 against the spread following a a game that they covered the point spread. The home team is 3-1-1 against the spread in the last five meetings of these two.

I expect the 9.5 point spread to drop drastically once Washington head coach Jay Gruden makes McCoy the official starter. So if you can find Washington at +9.5, jump on it.

Against The Spread Week 13 Lock Pick: Washington +9.5