St. Louis at San Diego Upset Alert Pick

NFL Preseason Week 3 betting action continues with a west coast vs west coast tilt from San Diego.

St. Louis at San Diego Upset Alert Pick

Jeff Fisher and the St. Louis Rams (4-6, 4th in NFC West) invade Qualcomm Stadium to take on Phillip Rivers, Antonio Gates and the San Diego Super Chargers (6-4, 3rd in AFC West) in week 12 NFL betting action.

The Chargers are 5 point favorites vs the visiting Rams with a game total of 43.

In three of the last five games, the Rams have managed to convincingly beat the NFL’s top teams: the San Francisco 49ers, Seattle Seahawks and Denver Broncos. Amazing considering the Rams lost franchise QB Sam Bradford to a season ending knee injury early this year. The win against the Broncos actually came last week when the Rams D only allowed seven points , which is kind of unheard of in the Peyton Manning era in Denver.

The San Diego Super Chargers have had a streaky season winning on the strength of QB Phillip Rivers arm. Last week they struggled to beat the Oakland Raiders with rumors abound that the Chargers are hiding a serious injury to Rivers. The Chargers have some very tough opponents coming up, teams like the New England Patriots and Denver, so this is a must win.

Matchup: St Louis Rams at San Diego Chargers
Date: Sunday, Nov. 23
Start Time: 4:05 p.m. ET
Location: San Diego, CA
Stadium: Qualcomm Stadium
TV Info: Fox
Live Stream: NFL.com
Radio: St Louis vs San Diego
Point Spread: Chargers -5
Money Line: Rams +185 Vs Chargers -255
Game Total: 43

Analyzing My St. Louis at San Diego Upset Alert Pick

After the Chargers beat the Raiders, Gates said Rivers has a "very severe rib injury." The next day, coach Mike McCoy said Rivers hasn’t missed time or received treatment for any injury.

Then Gates, after a probable ass chewing by McCoy, clarified his comments, “I was just talking in terms of playing the game, just the typical soreness you have from playing in this league. I’ve been playing in this league a long time. I understand the process, the battles of what you have to put into a game, taking care of yourself physically."

He later continued to remove his foot from his mouth, “I’m no doctor, by [any] stretch. My job is to come out here and try to help us win. As far as Philip goes, anything pertaining to him or concerning him and his physical health, that’s something maybe a doctor or a trainer or maybe himself can answer. Like I said, it was just me talking about his pure toughness, what I’ve known about him as a person.”

Regardless, the Chargers have now listed Chargers as having a chest injury in advance of Sunday’s game against the Rams. He fully participated in practice with the condition. Considering Rivers has played with a torn ACL; a chest injury or a very severe rib injury or something in between won’t keep him from playing.

The Chargers offense is averaging 21.8 points and 330.4 yards per game, which ranks them 17th and 22nd in the NFL in those categories. Phillip Rivers has completed 66.8 percent of his passes with 21 touchdowns and eight interceptions.

Last week, the Rams opened up the game by letting efficient game managing QB Shaun Hill surprise the Broncos secondary by going for the long ball early. Once the Rams got their lead they used a power-rushing attack to put up well over 100 yards against the NFL’s No. 1 run defense and when the Broncos offense was on the field, their secondary was able to keep the receiving core covered long enough for their explosive offensive line to rattle Peyton Manning into making a mistake…which happened often.

The Rams offense is averaging 18.5 points per game, which ranks 27th in the NFL, and 312.9 yards per game, which ranks them 29th in the NFL. The St. Louis defense is allowing 25.8 points per game that ranks them 25th in the NFL and they allow 362.4 yards per game that ranks them 17th.

San Diego is 6-2 against the spread following a win, 0-5 against the spread in their last five games, and 0-4 against the spread following a game that they didn’t cover the spread. St. Louis is 2-6 against the spread in their last eight road games, 0-4 against the spread following a win, and 0-5 against the spread following a game that they covered the point spread.

I can with almost certainty predict that the St. Louis Rams will cover the week 12 NFL betting spread. Fisher’s game plan will be to get an early lead again, run the ball the rest of the way and let their defense punish Rivers.

My NFL Week 12 Upset Alert Pick – Rams +5