Super Bowl 2014 Against The Spread AnalysisJosh Bailey
If you’re looking to cash in with a winning Super Bowl 2014 Against The Spread analysis, then you’ve come to the right place!
You see, not only does Sunday’s championship clash between the Denver Broncos and Seattle Seahawks look like a memorable matchup for the ages, but more importantly, we’ve got some expert Super Bowl 48 ATS betting information – and an accompanying free pick.
The Denver Broncos (15-3 SU, 11-6-1 ATS, 11-7 O/U) enter Sunday’s Super Bowl matchup riding an impressive four-game SU winning streak that also includes a bankroll-boosting 3-1 ATS mark during the span. Not coincidentally, Denver has turned up its defense during their winning streak, holding each of their last four opponents to 17 points or less.
Denver also recorded an identical five ATS victories at home and on the road this season while playing Over their set O/U Totals 11 times. While Denver ranked first in total yards, passing and scoring, they also finished just 19th in overall defense, including a dismal 27th against the pass and 22nd in points allowed (24.9).
The Seattle Seahawks (15-3 SU, 12-6 ATS, 6-12 O/U) have won three consecutive games dating back to the final week of the regular season and have not given up more than 17 points in five straight games and six of their last seven overall.
Seattle has scored at least 23 points in winning three straight and four of five overall while alternating ATS wins and losses over their last four games. The Seahawks also covered the spread six times in eight regular season road contests while playing Under their O/U Totals 10 times.
Despite ranking just 17th in total offense, Seattle did rank fourth in rushing (136.8ypg), eighth in points scored per game (26.1), not to mention the fact that place kicker Steven Hauschka nailed a blistering 33 of 35 field goal attempts finish second in field goal percentage (94.3).
Analysis: While the Denver Broncos are favored to win this matchup and have the far more explosive offense in this matchup, I’ve always believed that defense wins championships in every sport and this matchup is no different.
Sure, the Denver Broncos have a future Hall of Fame quarterback in Peyton Manning and a slew of receivers that generally catches everything thrown their collective way. However, if there is one team in the league that is capable of stopping them, it would be the ‘defense-first’ Seattle Seahawks.
Not only do the Seahawks have an elite defense that consists of the best secondary in the game today, but they also have a perfect offense for this contest in the fact that they possess a powerful rushing attack that can chew up time and keep Manning on the sidelines.
Not only that, but I love Seattle’s second-year quarterback Russell Wilson and genuinely believe that the unflappable young signal-caller has more mental fortitude than at least two-thirds of the quarterbacks n the NFL today, so I’m certainly expecting him to be overwhelmed by the occasion.
I like Seattle to win this contest outright and cover the spread for several reasons. First and foremost, they have the far better defense in this matchup even though I will admit that Denver has been playing fantastic defense as of late.
Next, I think Seattle ‘s offense is severely underrated. Having explosive do-it-all wide receiver Percy Harvin back on the field for this contest should open up a lot of things for Seattle offensively and I believe head coach Pete Carroll will find a way to get him involved early and often.
The Seahawks have plenty of experience playing in big games against big name quarterbacks and more often than not, they’ve been able to come out on top. After looking at all three phases of the game (offense, defense and special teams) I’ve come to the easy conclusion that Seattle is far better than Denver in two of these three areas.
Additionally, it would appear that the Seahawks, to a man, have a chip on their collective shoulders the size of Mount Rushmore . I think Seattle is a bit hungrier coming into this contest and really wants to prove just how good they are.
Were the Seahawks a young team with a turnover prone quarterback, then I’d give the Denver Broncos a much better chance of winning this contest. However, Seattle is mature, focused, well-coached – and again, a bit angry if you ask me. More impressively, Seattle is also a blistering 13-4 ATS in its last 17 games against teams with a winning record.
Add it all up and it makes what looks like the Seahawks have all the ingredients to take down the Denver Broncos and win the first Super Bowl title in franchise history.
Super Bowl 2014 Pick: Seattle Seahawks +2 Points