Now that the playoff seedings have been decided and Super Bowl 50 odds have been posted, it’s time for me to take a look at which teams are the best underdog picks in the sports book.
I define an underdog as a team that is going off at higher odds than it should. An underdog isn’t the same as a long shot. A long shot is a team going off at odds that are much higher than what the favorites are going off at. An underdog is a team that has a shot to win the Super Bowl but has higher odds than what most future bettors expect the odds to be.
A Closer Look At My Super Bowl 50 Underdog Picks
Denver Broncos 6/1
The odds on the top seed in the AFC could be a gift. Not only does Denver get a bye, but QB Peyton Manning looked just fine when rallying the Broncos to a 27 to 20 win over San Diego in Week 17. Peyton only went 5 for 9. But, he showed the world that he still knows how to run an offense. With Peyton at the controls, Denver’s rushing game improved. RB Ronnie Hillman scampered 23 yards for the game winning touchdown.
Peyton definitely doesn’t have the same physical skills that he did 2 years ago. But, he might not need them. He’s still arguably the best QB in the NFL at reading defenses. Peyton can audible this team to the Super Bowl. The rushing game will be key since Denver’s defense broke down at times in each of the Broncos’ final four regular season games.
Seattle Seahawks 6/1
Seattle qualifies as an underdog. If the Seahawks are going to win the Super Bowl, they’re going to have to win 3 straight road games. Seattle is the 6th seed in the NFC Playoffs. The Seahawks have the offense to definitely win the Super Bowl. The offense is ranked 4th in the NFL in yards per game at 378.6. The Seahawks average 26.4 points per game. Seattle brings the 3rd ranked rushing offense to the playoff party and top rusher Marshawn Lynch should be healthy enough for the playoffs.
Seattle’s lone issue might be its defense. Sure, that’s hard to say since the defense is ranked second in the NFL in yards allowed at 291.8 and first in the NFL in points allowed per game on average at 17.3. But the D has played shoddily at times like when allowing the Rams to score 23 points in a 17 to 23 loss in Week 16. Still, at 6/1, Seattle offers much better odds than it should.
Kansas City Chiefs 24/1
The odds on KC make the Chiefs long shots to win the Super Bowl, not underdogs. I can’t put the Chiefs into the long shot category. They are playing to well on both sides of the football for me to do that. KC goes into the playoffs after winning their final 10 games of the season. DE Justin Houston, their best defensive player, is getting healthier day by day. He might even be able to suit it up against the Texans this Saturday. Kansas City’s defense allows 329.3 total yards and 17.9 points per game.
QB Alex Smith wasn’t as sharp in the final 2 games of the regular season, a 4 to 3 TD to interception ratio, as he was during the entire regular season, 16 to 4 TD to interception ratio. Rest assured that Smith will turn things around. This team works like a wind up clock. Coach Andy Reid winds his players up and all they do is perform well enough to win.