Why Hasn’t The Super Bowl 51 Line Moved?

Why Hasn’t The Super Bowl 51 Betting Line Moved

Why Hasn’t The Super Bowl 51 Line Moved?

After opening up as a 3.5-point favorite to win Super Bowl 51 at a handful of sportsbooks almost two weeks ago, the New England Patriots have been rock-solid 3-point favorites almost since the day the Super Bowl 51 odds were released.

While the odds for the Super Bowl generally move a lot more than the half-point it has on this year’s championship showdown between the Atlanta Falcons and New England Patriots, the big question for NFL gaming enthusiasts is why hasn’t the Super Bowl 51 betting line moved one iota almost since they were released? 

Click here to find out if you should by a half-point on the Super Bowl LI spread and then let’s examine some reasons why the betting line hasn’t moved.

Why Hasn’t The Super Bowl 51 Betting Line Moved

What: Super Bowl LI
Who: New England Patriots (14-2) vs Atlanta Falcons (11-5)
When: Sunday, February 5, 2017
Start Time: 6:30 PM ET  
Where: Houston, TX
Stadium: NRG Stadium
Spread: Patriots -3
Moneyline: New England -150 vs Atlanta +140
Game Total: 59.5
Watch: FOX Sports
Stream: Fox Sports Go
Announcers: Joe Buck, Troy Aikman, Erin Andrews & Chris Myers
Listen: New England vs Atlanta

While NFL Super Bowl betting buffs generally love to back the higher-scoring team to cover the spread at the very least, that’s not the case this year with the majority of betting enthusiasts backing the Patriots’ top-ranked defense (15.6 ppg) more than they are Atlanta’s league-leading offense (33.8 ppg).

According to public betting trends, the Patriots have received a whopping 68 percent of early spread tickets and 78 percent of early ATS spread dollars. If these numbers don’t change, Super Bowl 51 will be the most lop-sided Super Bowl betting matchup ever.

While the betting public has mostly sided with the Patriots for Super Bowl 51, one sportsbook did recently move their odds to New England -3.5 points, which raises the question on why the spread hasn’t moved for Super Bowl 51.

The general consensus is that the point spread isn’t the expected margin of victory, nor are oddsmakers trying to get an equal amount of betting on both teams. Think of the lack of movement on the Super Bowl 51 betting line more as a way of oddsmakers trying to capitalize on the public’s perception that the Patriots are the better team heading into Super Bowl 51, which may or may not actually be the case.

While sportsbooks love balanced betting on every sporting event they release odds on, the bottom line is that they’re in business for one reason – maximizing their profits.

This means, that unless there’s a massive liability favoring one side, the spread likely won’t move very much if at all.

A year ago, Super Bowl bettors wagered over a whopping $130 million at Las Vegas sportsbooks, while several more millions were wagered at online sportsbooks. This much action allows oddsmakers to understand which team the majority of bettors are leaning towards.

Additionally, the majority of sportsbooks raise their betting limit for the Super Bowl depending on the action that many of the biggest sportsbooks in the industry are taking in. Some books are up to a $2,000 limit while at least one has raised their Super Bowl betting limit to a stunning $25,000.

Last year, so much money was bet on the Carolina Panthers to beat the Denver Broncos that the spread moved from Carolina -3.5 to the Panthers -4.5 and eventually, -6 points at some books.

Unless there is a ton of sharp money bet on the Falcons over the next handful of days leading up to Super Bowl 51, then you shouldn’t expect a Super Bowl 51 line move. However, since over 90 percent of Super Bowl bets take place less than 48 hours before the big game, there’s still time the Super Bowl 51 line could move.