https://www.boston.com/sports/new-england-patriots/2019/08/30/josh-gordon-preseason-stats-nfl-return

Super Bowl 53 Over/Under Game Total Betting Analysis

It’s Super Bowl week. The game total for over/under bets opened at 58-points and has been bet down to 56.5.

Super Bowl 53 Over/Under Game Total Betting Analysis

The Rams and Patriots each ranked in the top four in scoring and top five in yards and allowed the same amount of yards per game defensively. New England’s defense ranked seventh in points allowed, the Rams 20th. Now let’s take a closer look at why betting the over or under is the smart play in Super Bowl 53.

Why Bet Super Bowl 53 Over?

Both teams score at will. The New England Patriots rank 4th in the NFL in points per game. The Patriots average 27.2 per. They scored 41 versus the L.A. Chargers in a crazy 41-28 over game. They scored 37 against the Kansas City Chiefs in a wild 37-31 over game.

The Rams are the second highest scoring team in the NFL. Los Angeles averages 32.9 points per. They beat the Dallas Cowboys 30-22 in the Divisional Playoffs in an over game.

Why Bet Super Bowl 53 Under?

Although both these teams score a lot of points, they also play decent defense. The Patriots only allow 20.3 points per on average. That ranks 7th in the NFL. Over the total went 5-11 in New England’s 16 regular season games.

The over/under went 8-8 in the Rams’ 16 regular season games. Los Angeles only allows 24 points per game on average.

Super Bowl 53 Over/Under Total Prediction

At first glance, it looks like this game should go over by a mile. After all, the Rams average over 32 points per. New England only averages 24, but they’ve stepped it up big time during the playoffs.

The over/under total has plummeted, though. If both teams can score at will if both have such creative offenses, why did the line fall so quickly?

The Pats do average a lot of points. However, they’ve developed a viable rushing attack. Sony Michel had 3 touchdowns against the Chargers. Rex Burkhead scored 2 touchdowns while Michel had another 2 touchdowns in the win over the Chiefs.

That’s 4 rushing touchdowns for the Patriots in the AFC Championship. But, New England might find it harder to rush against the Rams defensive line: Michael Brockers, Ndamukong Suh, and Aaron Donald.

That’s why under players have been all over the total. Not only can Donald, Suh, and Brockers take away the Patriots’ rushing attack, they can also pressure Brady by themselves. If linebacker Corey Littleton can cover Rob Gronkowski, that takes away a hot read. The Patriots must then come up with a game plan to beat the Rams’ secondary.

It doesn’t mean the Patriots won’t. It just means New England must play a different game than the one that led to the point explosions against the Chargers and Chiefs. Whatever the strategy ends up becoming, you can be sure New England will try to limit the Rams’ possessions, just like they limited Kansas City’s in the AFC Championship.

Mainly because of the Patriots strategy, Super Bowl 53 should go under the total.

My Super Bowl 53 Over/Under Total Final Prediction: Under 56.5

Posted in NFL