When you’re a sports handicapper, you get bombarded with all sorts of funny things from people you meet, and this week the second-most asked question I’ve received is how to win on Super Bowl XLVIII props. Don’t worry, I’ll share with you what I share with people in real life.
The massive Super Bowl XLVIII props board has some of my favorite picks include Jon Elway being mentioned prior to the end of the first quarter (safe money at -350) , a safety scored in the game (+650) and I always prefer the UNDER in the anthem, especially in the frigid temperatures of New York (UNDER 140.0 seconds +120, UNDER 145.00 seconds -215). These are all the fun slip stuffers that we all love.
But there’s far more to Super Bowl XLVIII prop betting than all the traditionally ones we’ve grown accustomed to as a gambling community. Below I have three awesome markets that present some great value. They’re not as hair-brained as a coin flip, and the mouth watering payouts on some of the choices is undeniable awesome.
PLAYER TO SCORE FIRST TOUCHDOWN
Knowing how to win on Super Bowl XLVIII props requires you to understand them first. This prop bet always creates a bit of confusion because Russell Wilson (+2000) and Peyton manning (+7000) have gigantic payouts. The thing is that the player to score the first touchdown prop is based on who’s actually in the endzone. In that case, Wilson’s 20-to-1 odds are actually pretty inviting unless you remember that he only ran for two touchdowns this entire year. By comparison, Peyton Manning also had a rushing touchdown this year against Dallas. In all honesty, neither are great bets.
The player most likely to score first are probably Eric Decker (+1200) and Marshawn Lynch (+600). They have tasty matchups in this game, especially if Richard Sherman succeeds at locking down Demaryius Thomas (+900). One of the best NFL betting tips on how to win on Super Bowl XLVIII props is to spread your money around a little bit. You can have a couple chip shots at safe plays and a flier on someone worthwhile. Three $20 plays on each of the picks below will give you your money back and then some if they come through. Of course, these are just my picks. Who you actually take is up to you. Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie at +7500 on a pick-six is damn sexy if you ask me.
Pick for First Touchdown: Decker (+1200), Lynch (+600) and Moreno (+850)
SUPER BOWL XLVIII MVP
Again, this is a market where you can try and play the field instead of hammering down on one player. Of course if you’re absolutely certain that Manning and the Broncos will win out, then his +105 odds are certainly worthwhile. But if the Seahawks end up winning, it is likely to be because of Lynch who is posting an attractive 5-to-1 number.
The best advice I could provide on how to win on Super Bowl XLVIII props when it comes to the game’s MVP is to hedge against your game line play. So if you take the Broncos to win on the spread or straight up, you can hedge with a side play on Lynch or even Russell Wilson (+330) to win back your money. Same goes vice versa, although with Peyton’s number being so tight you’re basically just making a smart catch-up play.
Pick for Super Bowl XLVIII MVP: Manning (+105) and Lynch (+500)
ANTYIME TOUCHDOWN SCORER
If you take the time to dig through the props board, you’ll find little nuggets like this one. Bet on any player to score a touchdown at any point during the game and you’re looking at a relatively safe play. The big guns like Thomas and Lynch are favored to score at -300 and -110 respectively, but other major players like Baldwin (+200) and Julius Thomas (+120) have slightly better odds.
Obviously, like with any other commodity, you can also swing for the fences. Kick returner Trindon Holliday is a terrifying weapon and has promising +500 odds to score a touchdown. On the Seahawks’ side, running-back Christine Michael is a fun +1000 prayer as well. Usually when people ask me how to win on Super Bowl XLVIII props I tell them to play the safe, tight numbers. But I’d be lying if I didn’t say I made some crazy bets too. There’s also middle ground like my favorite two picks for anytime TD scorers. It’s all about risk and reward.
Pick for Anytime TD Scorer – Montee Ball (+225) and Robert Turbin (+450)