Super Bowl XLVIII Chances By ESPN and Betting Odds for All 32 TeamsJosh Bailey
Thanks number crunchers at ESPN, NFL betting fans can use statistical percentage on the chances of each and every team winning the 2015 Super Bowl to bet on Super Bowl 2015 futures.
Now, whether I agree or not with all of ESPN’s calculations or not is another matter all together. However, I am going to offer up my own views on each teams ‘real’ chances of bringing home the bacon for NFL gridiron gambling aficionados across the globe.
Before I go any further, let me just say that ESPN’s statistical data – and the resulting chances of each team winning Super Bowl 49, greatly differ from the NFL Super Bowl Futures Odds that oddsmakers everywhere have installed for each team, not to mention the fact that they are wildly different from the chances I give each team to win it all this coming season.
With that said – and the 2014 NFL regular season set to get underway this week, let’s get this party started.
My Super Bowl XLVIII Chances and Betting Odds for All 32 Teams
1. Seattle Seahawks: 10.1% (+550)
I have no idea what simulation doesn’t have Seattle favored to win the West, but I’m going on record to say that I like the Seahawks to become the first team to repeat as Super Bowl champs since New England in 2004-05, barring an injury to any of their core players.
2. Denver Broncos: 16.9 % percent (+600)
The Broncos have plenty of offense and an upgraded defense that looks much better on paper than the one that got blown out of the water by Seattle in Super Bowl 48. I expect Denver to almost assuredly reach the AFC title game at the very least. However, Denver is not my favorite to win Super Bowl 49.
3. New England Patriots: 7.1 % (+750)
Maybe it’s me, but I’m thinking the Pats are about due to return to the Super Bowl. Besides, isn’t it pretty much a fact that Bill Belichick and Tom Brady will beat Peyton Manning if they meet in the postseason?
4. San Francisco 49ers: 5.6 % (+1000)
It’s absolutely ludicrous that the Niners aren’t the No.2 favorite to win it all in the NFC, but hey, ESPN is the worldwide leader in sports right? I know Frisco is looking at a season without Navarro Bowman and a likely suspension for Aldon Smith, but haven’t the Niners shown some serious resiliency the last few years?
5. Green Bay Packers: 10.7 % (+1000)
The Green Bay Packers will almost assuredly be better in 2014 than they were last season, if for no other reasons than the fact that quarterback Aaron Rodgers is fully healthy. Still, I don’t believe the Packers are the favorite to represent the NFC in Super Bowl 49…at least not yet anyway.
6. New Orleans Saints: 7.8 % (+1000)
Drew Brees is my guy and I like the Saints to really challenge for a berth in the NFC title game – if their defense shows up that is.
7. Cincinnati Bengals: 3.1 % (+3000)
Let’s say it all together now…I believe in Andy Dalton! Seriously though, I think the Bengals are due for a postseason breakthrough this season. Besides, each of their AFC North counterparts all have issues that are more pressing than Cincinnati ‘s.
8. Philadelphia Eagles: 6.5 % (+2500)
I love the Eagles’ explosive, high-scoring offense and I believe Philly is a ‘lock’ to win the NFC East. However, I think it’s also a fact that the Birds will only go as far as their defense takes them, especially come playoff time.
9. Arizona Cardinals: 1.1 % (+5000)
The Cardinals might have a tough schedule this season, but for them to get 10 wins in the powerful NFC West last season leads me to believe anything is possible for Bruce Arians and company in 2014.
10. San Diego Chargers: 4.7 % (+4500)
Something tells me that Philip Rivers and the Bolts are in for a very good season in 2014. Unfortunately, I remain a bit skeptical because of the perennial flameouts of this talent-laden team.
11. Carolina Panthers: 2.5 % (+5500)
I think the Panthers are going to take a step backwards this season, if for no other reason than the fact that I expect all three of their NFC South division rivals will be improved in 2014. Besides, Cam Newton can’t hit a wide open receiver on a short route if his life depended on it.
12. Indianapolis Colts: 2.5 % (+2200)
The Colts have a possible future Hall of Fame kind of quarterback in Andrew Luck and they should easily win the AFC South in 2014. However, after watching this team all preseason, clearly something is missing right now – on both sides of the ball.
13. Detroit Lions: 0.4 % (+4000)
I think it’s ludicrous that the Lions are ranked lower than several other NFC teams in ESPN’s simulation, particularly seeing as how I expect head coach Jim Caldwell to get rid of the foolish nonsense that plagued this team for years under Jim Schwartz.
14. Chicago Bears: 6.0 % (+2000)
I love offensive-minded head coach Marc Trestman, but I think the Bears made a big boo-boo by choosing Jay Cutler over veteran Josh McCown.
15. Kansas City Chiefs: 0.4 % (+4500)
I love Andy Reid and really like Alex Smith. Now, if Smith starts completing passes over 10 yards – and the Chiefs actually start playing some competent defense – then the Chiefs could really contend. Still, for this team to be ranked 28th in ESPN’s simulation is laughable.
16. Pittsburgh Steelers: 2.5 % (+2800)
Pittsburgh ranked dead last in rushing a year ago – and apparently have a pair of running backs in Le’Veon Bell and LeGarrette Blount that apparently like ‘blazing up’ way more than they like practicing. Oh…where’s Jerome Bettis when you need him?
17. Baltimore Ravens: 0.6 % (+3500)
Does anyone really believe that Joe Flacco is elite? Didn’t think so! Nevertheless, Baltimore will contend for a playoff berth – and a shot at the AFC North crown if Cincinnati falters.
18. New York Giants: 1.5 % (+5000)
Eli Manning looked more like a scared rookie than a two-time Super Bowl-winning quarterback last season. Oh…and New York ‘s once vaunted defense is but a shell of its former self.
19. New York Jets: 1.1 % (+7500)
It’s only a matter of time before Mike Vick steps in for Geno Smith – and then the real fun begins in New York !
20. Atlanta Falcons: 1.2 % (+4500)
Everything that could go wrong for Matt Ryan and the Falcons last season – did. No way does Atlanta have two straight ‘Murphy’s Law’ seasons…right?
21. Miami Dolphins: 0.2 % (+7500)
Sure, my wife can throw the ball further than Ryan Tannehill (seriously) but to have Miami in 30th place, is absolutely bonkers, particularly seeing as how they’ve fielded a top 10 defense in each of the last three years.
22. Tampa Bay Buccaneers: 1.0 % (+10000)
I love Lovie Smith and I think he’s going to help the dysfunctional Bucs get back on track as they move forward. Still, this team is at least two years away from really competing for anything significant after dealing with Greg Schiano the last couple of seasons.
23. Buffalo Bills: 1.6 % (+8500)
I’m thinking E.J. Manuel and Sammy Watkins could potentially become Buffalo ‘s new Jim Kelly and Andre Reed in a few years. However, let’s keep the emphasis on the ‘few years’ part. How Buffalo leap-frogged several other ‘better’ teams in ESPN’s simulations is beyond me.
24. Minnesota Vikings: 1.4 % (+12000)
All I can say is that some computer is really messed up when you have the rebuilding Vikings ranked over teams like 10-win Arizona . However, talk to me in two years when this team’s young performers are really ready to shine.
25. Washington : 0.6 % (+7000)
I’m starting to think that Washington legend Joe Theismann is right when he recently said that backup Kirk Cousins should be starting over RG3.
26. Dallas Cowboys: 0.7 % (+9000)
The Cowboys – and more specifically – owner Jerry Jones – are still under the foolish belief that Tony Romo can lead them to a Super Bowl title. How do you say…laugh out loud?
27. Cleveland Browns: 0.3 % (+10000)
It’s probably only a matter of time before Johnny Manziel takes over for Brian Hoyer, but I’m thinking the Browns should actually get some competent complimentary players that can stay out of trouble and on the field to actually help Johnny Football out in the near future.
28. St . Louis Rams: 0.9 % (No Odds)
Not drafting or signing an undrafted signal-caller after Sam Bradford’s ACL tear last season was absolutely foolish on the Rams’ part. Now, I’m thinking Jeff Fisher’s days are numbered in St. Louis.
29. Oakland Raiders: 0.01 % (+20000)
At least the Oakland Raiders will have a ‘real’ quarterback in former Houston Pro Bowler Matt Schaub and another with some real promise in rookie Derek Carr. Still, I have no faith whatsoever in head coach Dennis Allen, at least until I see otherwise.
30. Tennessee Titans: 0.6 % (+10000)
Jake Locker could be the answer in Tennessee. I mean, when he plays, he’s been pretty good. The problem is that Locker can’t seem to stay healthy for more than 15 minutes at a time.
31. Houston Texans: 0.4 % (+5500)
The Texans have a very good coach in Bill O’Brien and I believe it’s only a matter of time before he turns things back around in Houston . It’s too bad that the Texans don’t have a ‘real’ starting quarterback.
32. Jacksonville Jaguars: 0.1 % (+20000)
I really like rookie signal-caller Blake Bortles and I believe he gives them the best chance to win right now. Still, I don’t know if I’d put him out there with a bunch of scrubs that could potentially ruin his future – though I will admit – he’s clearly no Blaine Gabbert.