Seattle's 12th Man

The Top 5 NFC Championship Betting Trends

As you’d expect, there are a mountain of NFC Championship betting trends that should influence your decision this Sunday evening. The main problem? The trends swing wildly in both directions. Both Seattle and San Francisco are amongst the strongest betting teams in the NFL and lots of gamblers have been riding their coattails to mad profits. Only one team can cover this weekend. Where is your money safer? Let’s take a look.

San Francisco 49ers vs Seattle Seahawks
The Seattle Seahawks are 3.5 point favorites over the San Francisco 49ers in the NFC championship game.
Starts: 01/19/2014 6:30PM
CenturyLink Field, 800 Occidental Avenue South
Seattle, Washington


Seattle is 37-18-1 ATS In their last 56 Home Games

I’m just getting this NFC Championship betting trend out of the way. We all know that Seattle is a great bet at home, and there’s actual numbers to prove it. Beyond their actual spread record at home, Seattle went 7-1 SU in their own building and scored an average point differential of +16.5 in those eight games.

While Seattle is a great bet at home, it’s worth mentioning another key betting trend that serves as the main counterpoint to the 12th Man’s prodigal home record. The Niners are 37-18-1 ATS in their last 56 games overall. You’re literally gambling on the best home team in the NFL against one of the strongest, overall betting teams on the market. There’s a reason this game is giving handicappers nightmares.

The Home Team is 9-1 SU in the last 10 Head-to-Head Meetings

This is where things get tricky. The home field advantage has been undeniable in this rivalry, and it has nothing to do with weather conditions because both Candlestick and CenturyLink have terrible climates (they’re both cold, windy and wet). The one time the road time won was during 2011, when Alex Smith and Tavaris Jackson were both the quarterbacks so there’s not much you can take away from that game.

Seattle’s 4-1 SU record when hosting San Francisco is also bolstered by the fact that almost all those games were blowouts. Dating back to 2009, Seattle has won each home game by a margin of +16.4 points on average, which includes the previously mentioned 17-19 loss to Alex Smith. By comparison, San Francisco has gone 5-0 SU in their last 5 games at Candlestick versus Seattle with a point differential of +13.4 points per game. You’ll hear a lot about the home field advantage in this weekend’s mega tilt between these two rivals, and now that you understand the NFC Championship betting trends a little better, you can easily see why.

Seattle is 4-0 ATS In The Last 4 Head-to-Head Meetings

For the past two years, Seattle and San Francisco have established themselves as two of the best teams in the conference but the Seahawks are the one who have dominated the recent spread record. It’s also interesting that this is the most that Seattle has been favored by when playing San Francisco in the past five years. This NFC Championship betting trend is more of a nugget than anything else, but it also proves that the oddsmakers have graded the Seahawks very well. The fact that they’re -3.5 point home favorites, which is a half-point higher than the natural -3.0 home line I expected, says a lot about what the nerds who cipher the game lines think about this game.

San Francisco is 7-3 ATS in their Last 10 January Games

When the games matter, the Niners almost always come through. They’ve already covered twice this year and are 4-1 SU and ATS in their last 5 playoff games, losing as -4.5 favorites in last year’s Super Bowl. Harbaugh is a master motivator and the Niners are built to compete with everyone. Take this NFC Championship betting trend at sheer face value. It’s as impressive as it looks.

San Francisco is 12-3 ATS in their last 15 Road Games

Let’s make things even more confusing shall we? I already mentioned that San Francisco has been one of the most reliable plays in NFL betting for the past three or four seasons. A lot of that is because they’ve routinely traveled well, and with Jim Harbaugh at the helm they’ve usually maintained their focus well. They’re 8-1 ATS in their 9 road games this year, and went 4-2 ATS in 2012 after he became the full time starter. Those are damn trustworthy records.

This final NFC Championship betting trend should affirm what you probably already know – this game is a toss-up no matter what anyone tries to tell you otherwise.

Posted in NFL