NFL Week 11 Underdog Picks

Washington vs Philadelphia Odds & Final Score Prediction

NFL Week 11 Underdog Picks

Usually this late in the season, it is a daunting task to pick winning underdogs. Not this year. A few nights ago, the 7.5-point underdog Seahawks used a last-second goal-line stand to beat the Patriots 31-24, capping a day full of underdog success stories.

Underdogs covered the spread in nine of the 12 games on Sunday. The Eagles’ win over the Falcons and Titans’ upset of the Packers produced the biggest wins of the early games those of you who backed the underdog. All three underdogs in the late kickoffs covered the spread, highlighted by the Cowboys’ outright last minute win over the favored Steelers.

This week picking upset may not be as easy as throwing a horse shoe this week, so use my winning NFL Week 11 underdog picks to win big.

NFL Week 11 Underdog Picks

My NFL Week 11 underdog picks look at teams that have been forgotten by most football handicappers. Is Jacksonville a good pick against Detroit on the road as a close to 7-point dog? What will Miami do against the Los Angeles Rams in California? How will Philadelphia handle their game against Seattle in the Great Northwest on Nov. 20?

Jacksonville at Detroit
When:  Sunday, Nov. 20 at 1:00 pm ET
Where: Ford Field, Detroit, MI
Odds: Jacksonville +6.5

Analysis: The Jags are one of the worst teams in the NFL. Jacksonville, even with talent on both sides of the ball, are 2 and 7 straight up. Jacksonville is 4-5 against the spread, though, meaning that at times they can play an opponent tough.

Week 11 could be one of those weeks where Jacksonville wins ATS. The Jags’ defense has had moments where it’s played terrific football this season. Detroit’s offense has absolutely no rushing attack to speak of. That should help the Jags keep Detroit QB Matthew Stafford at least somewhat under control during this battle.

As far as Jacksonville’s offense is concerned, it has no business not scoring at least 25 to 30 points versus the Lions’ defense. Detroit allows 23 points per game on average. The Jacksonville defense has been underperforming all season long. It’s going to breakout eventually.   

Pick: Jacksonville

Miami at Los Angeles
When: Sunday, Nov. 20 at 4:05 pm ET
Where: L.A. Memorial Coliseum, Los Angeles, CA
Odds: Miami +1

Analysis: Los Angeles’ defense has been exceptional in the Rams’ last 3 games. The D gave up only 17 points to the New York Giants on Oct. 23 in a 10 to 17 Rams’ loss. On Nov. 6 after their bye, the Rams gave up only 13 points to Carolina in a 10 to 13 loss. In Week 10 versus the Jets, the Rams gave up 6 points in a 9 to 6 win.

But as well as the Rams have been playing on defense, the unit hasn’t faced an offense nearly as capable as Miami’s in Los Angeles’s last 3 games. The Dolphins’ offense has been hot lately. The Fins have won 4 games in a row. 3 of the 4 wins were against top teams. Miami beat Pittsburgh 30 to 15. They took down Buffalo 28 to 25. They beat San Diego 31 to 24.

The Rams’ defense is going to find it tough to keep Miami from scoring points in this game on Nov. 20. I think Miami is playing too well to lose this one.  

Pick: Miami

Philadelphia at Seattle
When:  Sunday, Nov. 20 at 4:25 pm ET
Where: CenturyLink Field, Seattle, WA
Odds: Philadelphia +6

Analysis: The Seattle Seahawks ride a 2-game winning streak into their battle against Philadelphia on CenturyLink Field this Sunday. But Seattle had to work hard for both wins. The Seahawks had an emotional night in Foxborough on Nov. 13 when upsetting the New England Patriots. It’s hard to imagine the Seahawks going into a game with Philly with as much emotion as they did versus the Patriots in Week 10.

For their part, Philadelphia broke a 2-game losing streak in fine fashion in Week 10. The Eagles, as -2 favorites versus Atlanta, beat the Falcons 24 to 15. Philly’s D held the top ranked offense in the NFL to 48 rushing yards and 255 passing yards.

The Eagles’ defense won’t have to be that dominant against Seattle’s offense this Sunday to win against the spread. Philadelphia is one of the better teams in the NFL. They’re going to prove it again by giving Seattle all that they can handle on Nov. 12. 

Pick: Philadelphia