At the beginning of the season, the oddsmakers pegged the San Francisco 49ers and Seattle Seahawks as the prohibitive favorites in their conference and throughout the year any and all updated odds to win the NFC Championship had these two at the top. Teams like Carolina, New Orleans and Green Bay always snuck in to the conversation but the two finalists this weekend were always at the head of the class. Usually, by the time we get to this point in the playoffs, an underdog has snuck through to the conference round but this year we have the four best teams from the 2013 season.
In other words – count your lucky stars as a football fan.
The updated odds to win the NFC Championship are now the moneyline on the matchup between Seattle and San Francisco, and since both teams are so viscous it’s almost strange that the game line and moneyline aren’t a little tighter. Currently, the Seahawks are favored by -3.5 points and that’s because this matchup has usually leaned towards the home team. In the past 10 meetings between San Francisco and Seattle, the home team has claimed victory 9 times.
Seattle’s home field advantage is pretty undeniable. They’re a dazzling 37-18-1 ATS in their last 56 games at CenturyLink (or when it was known as the Qwest Field). This season, Seattle failed to cover just on their own turf just three times. They survived barn burners against Tennessee and Tampa Bay as double-digit favorites, and lost outright to Arizona in Week 16. Despite those losses, the virtually automatic play is Seattle at home this weekend.
This being said, San Francisco has been on an absolute tear down the stretch. They’ve gone 8-0 SU and 5-3 ATS in their last 8 games, which includes a 19-17 victory over the Seahawks from Week 14. Of course, they were blown out by Wilson and the Seahawks in Week 2, losing 3-29 at CenturyLink but Niners’ backers will argue that the team was in a legitimate funk early on. San Francisco also lost 7-27 the following week at home against Indianapolis. As most would say, it’s not how you start the season, it’s how you end it.
The problem is that Seattle has been playing at such a high level all season that it’s difficult to really find a weakness. They haven’t had the most challenging schedule but they’ve also never succumbed to a blowout. Seattle lost their three games this season by an average of just -5.3 points per game. If we know anything about Seattle it’s that they always come to play and that’s one of the reasons I prefer their updated odds to win the NFC Championship. The fact that they’re at home where they averaged 29.1 points per game and gave up just 12.6 points against.
This will be an absolute war but right now the Seahawks are the better take. The Seahawks are 2-2 SU and 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games against the Niners, and have gone 4-1 SU when hosting this matchup. You have to pay a steep price with the updated odds to win the NFC Championship posting Seattle at -175 on the moneyline, but a bet is only as strong as it’s chance to become a reality. Considering Seattle’s boisterous play at home, they’re the smarter play.
This game will take place on Sunday at 6:30pm EST at CenturyLink Field. You can bet on the updated odds to win the NFC Championship by heading to the main NFL section of our sportsbook.