NFL Week 17 Upset Alert Picks

NFL Week 17 Upset Alert Picks

NFL Week 17 Upset Alert Picks

Welcome to the last Sunday of regular season football which means it is time for my NFL Week 17 Upset Alert Picks. This week San Diego takes on Kansas City while Tampa Bay hosts New Orleans. In the afternoon, Chicago and Minnesota battle each other in a meaningless affair to the NFL, but one that could be profitable to football handicappers.

Analyzing My NFL Week 17 Upset Alert Picks

San Diego Chargers at Kansas City Chiefs
When: Sunday, Dec. 28 at 1:00 pm ET
TV:  CBS
Betting Line: Kansas City -2.5

Analysis: Kansas City is 5 and 2 against the spread at home this season, but that stat doesn’t tell the whole picture. The Chiefs have gone 1 and 4 against the spread in their last 11 games. They go into this matchup off of a 12 to 20 road loss to Pittsburgh where they could muster only 39 yards on the ground.

San Diego’s defense isn’t as good as Pittsburgh’s at this point in the season, but the Chargers definitely have the better quarterback in Phillip Rivers. Rivers rallied the Chargers to a 38 to 35 overtime victory against San Francisco in Week 16. It was a terrific win for the Bolts who will make the playoffs with a victory over KC in Missouri.

Both teams should be motivated, which means that the team with the better quarterback could be the one to push on to the playoffs. That team is definitely San Diego.  

NFL Week 17 Upset Alert Pick: San Diego Chargers +2.5

New Orleans Saints at Tampa Bay Buccaneers
When:  Sunday, Dec. 28 at 1:00 pm ET
TV: FOX
Betting Line: New Orleans -3.5

Analysis: Saints’ players should have motivation going into this matchup versus Tampa Bay. The Saints know that they’ll need to play well in order to stay away from the wrath of their head coach, Sean Payton. But, if they weren’t motivated against Atlanta in Week 16, where they lost 14 to 30 to end their dreams of winning the NFC South, why would they be motivated against the Buccaneers?

That’s the problem with picking the Saints to cover the spread in this game. Tampa Bay appears well-suited to continue New Orleans’ misery. The Bucs have only 2 victories this season and the team is 1 and 6 against the spread at home, but they scored 31 points against the Saints’ horrible defense earlier in the season, and Tampa’s defense can play well at times.

Plus, New Orleans has shown time and again that it has no heart. Tampa could crush the Saints on Sunday.

NFL Week 17 Upset Alert Pick: Tampa Bay Buccaneers +3.5

Chicago Bears at Minnesota Vikings
When:  Sunday, Dec. 28 at 4:25 pm ET
TV: CBS
Betting Line: Minnesota -7.5

Analysis: The Bears are a mess, but are they 7.5 points worse than Minnesota?  Chicago could very well come out and play lights out versus a Minnesota defense that is allowing 123 rushing yards per game and 22 points per matchup.

Chicago’s defense is terrible. It’s ranked thirty-second in the league against the pass, but Minnesota doesn’t put up a lot of points. Minny only averages 21 points and 316 yards per game. Sure, Chicago is most likely going to have a new coach next season and, yes, kicker Robbie Gould did question how smart it was to bench Jay Cutler for Jimmy Clausen, but the Bears could be motivated in this matchup.

The bottom line is that it’s difficult to pick Minnesota to cover a more than 7 point spread against any team that the Vikings’ face. The point spread is just too high. Go with the dog.

NFL Week 17 Upset Alert Pick: Chicago Bears +7.5