Upset Picks NFL Week 1

Upset Picks NFL Week 1

Upset Picks NFL Week 1

Where’s the Underdog Value in Week 1 Openers?

Are Tom Brady and the New England Patriots simply going to steamroll everyone en route to another Super Bowl appearance?

Are Matthew Stafford and the Detroit Lions going to be able to hold down the fort when Carson Palmer and the Arizona Cardinals come to town?

Are the Oakland Raiders still the pick to beat the Tennessee Titans despite being on the road and going from a road favorite a few weeks back to a road underdog?

If you’re looking for some ‘upset special’ kind of picks for Week 1 of the 2017 NFL regular season, then you don’t have to look very far at all thanks to the trio of Week 1 upset picks I’ve got just for you.

Upset Betting Picks NFL Week 1 2017

Kansas City Chiefs at New England Patriots
When: Thursday, September 7, 2017 at 8:30 PM ET
Where: Gillette Stadium, Foxborough, Massachusetts
NFL Odds: New England -8
Total: 48

Analysis: Tom Brady and the rest of the New England Patriots are favored to win Super Bowl 52 after just completing a historic comeback to bag the Super Bowl 51 Vince Lombardi Trophy. However, I’m adamant that the Kansas City Chiefs are the right pick to cover the ATS spread as 8-point road dogs in their opener.

The Chiefs have an excellent head coach in Andy Reid, one of the best defenses in the league and a veteran quarterback that isn’t going to cost them games with silly turnovers in Alex Smith. I know Smith also isn’t going to go out and win many games with anything that could remotely be considered prolific passing, but Smith is clearly more of a positive than negative and has an innate ability to make the simple play and right read time and time again.

More importantly for me, Kansas City has a bunch of elite talent and a couple of Pro Bowlers on the defensive side of the ball, leading me to believe they’ll find a way to keep the final score closer to a field goal finish than anything. The Patriots may be 5-0 ATS in their last five games in the month of September, but Kansas City is 6-0 ATS in their last six road games and 5-2 ATS in their last seven games overall.

Upset Pick NFL Week 1: Kansas City +8 Points

Cardinals at Lions
When: Sunday, September 10, 2017 at 1:00 PM ET
Where: Ford Field, Detroit, Michigan
NFL Odds: Arizona -1
Total: 48

Analysis: The Detroit Lions have looked pretty good this preseason and even though I like Arizona heading into the 2017 regular season, I’m going with Matthew Stafford and the Lions to hold down the fort at home in Week 1. Despite falling apart late last season, Detroit reached the playoffs last season by winning nine games and have made the postseason in two of the last three seasons overall.

While I’m expecting Carson Palmer and the Arizona Cardinals to get back to being a double-digit winner in 2017 after seeing their their two-year postseason run and three-year run of recording double-digit victories, come to an end last season, I don’t think they’re getting it done on the road in Week 1 against a Lions team that has been pretty damned good the last couple of seasons.

Detroit has compiled a killer, 10-4 ATS in their last 14 Week 1 games and that leads me to believe they’re going to get the ‘upset’ cover as a slight home dog!

Upset Pick NFL Week 1: Lions 27 Cardinals 24

Raiders at Titans
When: Sunday, September 10, 2017 at 1:00 PM ET
Where: Nissan Stadium, Nashville, Tennessee
NFL Odds: Tennessee -2
Total: 51.5

Analysis: Derek Carr and the Oakland Raiders were favored against Marcus Mariota and the Tennessee Titans in this Week 1 matchup of playoff hopefuls until very recently and that’s changed my pick from a Titans cover to a Raiders win and ATS cover.

While I’m not real confident in Oakland’s defense heading into 2017 and I believe they’re going to get in a lot of shootouts I still believe they can and will beat a Tennessee Titans team that didn’t look very good in the preseason at all.

While I’m really high on Tennessee’s chances of improving and making the playoffs after they won nine games a year ago before losing Mariota in Week 15, I like Oakland’s downright explosive offense to get the job done in this Week 1 matchup of blossoming teams.

While Tennessee has gone 7-3 ATS in their last 10 regular season openers and will have plenty of motivation to get the win at home, Oakland is 9-3 ATS in their last dozen road games and just has too much offense for the ‘more traditional’ Titans’ offense to keep up with.

Upset Pick NFL Week 1: Raiders 31 Titans 28