Upset Picks NFL Week 4Josh Bailey
NFL underdogs went on a run this Sunday covering a myriad of upset picks. Ten of Sunday’s 13 underdogs covered the spread, with six teams pulling outright upsets.
Deshaun Watson is just the 5th rookie to throw a Pass TD at NE in the Belichick era. Others: Luck (2), Sanchez (1), Leftwich (1), Goff (1).
— ESPN Stats & Info (@ESPNStatsInfo) September 24, 2017
Wins by the Buffalo Bills and Chicago Bears, combined with the Houston Texans covering the spread against the New England Patriots were a few of the biggest upsets. Are there any NFL Week 4 games should you target for upset bets? Let’s find out.
Upset Picks NFL Week 4
Can Deshaun Watson and the Houston Texans rebound from their heartbreaking Week 3 loss to get the home win against AFC South rival Tennessee as slight home underdogs in Week 4?
Will Russell Wilson and the Seattle Seahawks get their act together to cover the big spread against an Indianapolis Colts team that has played some pretty good football since making a change at quarterback after their regular season opener?
Last but not least, can Kirk Cousins and the Washington Redskins hand Alex Smith and the Kansas City Chiefs their first loss of the season when they visit Arrowhead Stadium on Monday night?
With three weeks in the books, it’s time for a trio of Week 4 NFL upset picks. Now, let’s get to it.
Tennessee at Houston
When: Sunday, October 1, 2017 at 1:00 PM ET
Where: NRG Stadium, Houston, Texas
NFL Odds: Houston +2
Analysis: Marcus Mariota and the Tennessee Titans looked fantastic in their 33-27 Week 3 home win over Seattle, but so did Deshaun Watson and the Houston Texans despite falling to New England 36-33 in the waning moments of regulation. Houston has won each of their last five home dates against Tennessee while also winning five of the last six meetings overall.
While Tennessee has won two straight, Houston will have more than enough motivation to get the win and improve to 2-2 and now have a quarterback in Watson that is clearly a special young talent. The Titans are 1-5-1 ATS in their last six road dates against the Texans while Houston has gone 8-3-1 ATS in their last 12 games against their AFC South division rivals. Houston gets the outright ‘upset’ home win as slight underdogs to cover the NFL betting line.
Upset Pick Week 4: Houston +2
Indianapolis at Seattle
When: Sunday, October 1, 2017 at 8:30 PM ET
Where: CenturyLink Field, Seattle, Washington
NFL Odds: Indianapolis +12.5
Analysis: Indianapolis got their first win of the season in Week 3 and has played some solid football since their Week 1 debacle against the Rams by narrowly losing to Arizona 16-13 in Week 2 and beating Cleveland 31-28 this past weekend. The Colts are looking a lot better mostly because of the eye-opening play of young quarterback Jacoby Brissett, who has looked pretty damned good in his two starts since replacing Scott Tolzien following his flame-out appearance in Indy’s regular-season opener.
On the flip side of the coin, Seattle has looked mostly awful in losing their opener 17-9 to Green Bay before narrowly squeaking past an awful San Francisco team 12-9 in Week 2 and falling to Tennessee 33-27 on the road this past weekend.
If you want me to be honest about it, I simply don’t have any faith in the Seahawks whatsoever right now, even though they entered the 2017 campaign as one of my top selections to win the NFC title this season. Seattle is averaging a pitiful 16.0 points per game to rank 26th in scoring and although they are limiting their opponents to just 19.7 points per game to rank an encouraging eighth in points allowed, they sure didn’t look very cohesive in giving up 33 points to Marcus Mariota and the Titans this past weekend.
Seattle is 0-4 ATS in their last four games and 3-7-1 ATS in their last 11 games in the month of October while Indianapolis has gone 10-2 ATS in their last dozen road games against a team with a losing home record and 4-1 ATS in their last five meetings against the Seahawks.
Simply put, with Indy getting some good play at quarterback, I like them to cover the spread against an offensively-challenged Seahawks team as nearly two-touchdown road dogs.
Upset Pick Week 4: Indianapolis +12.5
Washington at Kansas City
When: Monday, October 2, 2017 at 8:30 PM ET
Where: Arrowhead Stadium, Kansas City, Missouri
NFL Odds: Kansas City -8
Analysis: While the Chiefs are looking good after getting off to a perfect 3-0 start that includes a season-opening road win over New England that I predicted in Week 1, it is Kirk Cousins and the Washington Redskins that are the pick to get the upset ATS cover as 8-point road dogs in this Week 4 Inter-conference clash.
While the Chiefs man-handled the Chargers in their Week 3 AFC West divisional battle to cover the spread, I also predicted, Washington looked even better in beating the Oakland Raiders in all three phases in their surprising 27-10 win on Sunday. Now, while I’m not suggesting that Washington will win outright, I am going to advise you to back Cousins and company to cover a point spread I think should be a lot closer to 4-6 points than the eight points it currently sits at.
Despite their excellence this season, the Chiefs are just 4-9 ATS in their last 13 home games. Conversely, Washington has gone 6-1 ATS in their last seven games against a team with a winning record and a blistering 10-2 ATS in their last 12 road games. The Redskins put up a good effort to cover the NFL betting line in a narrow road loss to snap their 0-5 ATS mark in their last five road games against the Chiefs.