Week 1 NFL AFC East Betting Prediction: Miami Hosts New England

Week 1 NFL Odds Are Value-Packed as Miami Hosts New England in AFC East Showdown

Sun Life Stadium will be the site for a Week 1 AFC East showdown between the New England Patriots and the Miami Dolphins – and I believe this matchup is one of the more value-packed pairings on the entire Week 1 docket.

New England Patriots @ Miami Dolphins
The New England Patriots are four point favorites over the Dolphins in Miami in NFL week 1 betting action.
Starts: 09/07/2014 1:00PM
Sun Life Stadium, 2269 NW 199th St,
Miami Gardens, Florida

Week 1 NFL AFC East Betting Prediction: Miami Hosts New England

Preview: New England (13-5 SU,9-9 ATS) went 2-2 SU and 2-1-1 ATS in the preseason but looked very good in the two games the most wanted win in Week 2 and 3. The Patriots topped the 30-point plateau twice in the preseason while giving up 16 points or fewer twice as well.

Miami (8-8 SU, 9-7 ATS) looked very solid all preseason and won their last three tune-up games while never allowing more than 20 points. The Fins didn’t put up great offensive numbers as they scored 20 points or more just twice and never more than 25, but the Dolphins’ defense pretty much dominated.

Analysis: For this matchup, I’m going to urge you to back the Miami Dolphins to not only cover the spread, but to get the narrow outright win at home. Miami beat New England 24-20 at home last season to snap a seven-game SU losing streak to the Pats and I believe the way their defense played throughout the preseason is going to carry them to victory.

New England has won 14 of its last 21 road games, but Tom Brady and company are also just 1-6 ATS in its last 7 games on the road.

There’s been a lot of talk about Tom Brady’s age this offseason. That’s what happens when a player turns 37 years old, and his team drafts his eventual replacement.

"I love playing for this team and I love representing this team and hopefully I can do that for as long as I can. When I suck, I’ll retire," Brady said Tuesday on WEEI-AM, via The Boston Globe. "But I don’t plan on sucking for a long time.

"So hopefully that leads me to being here and there’s no place I’d rather be."

Miami won five of its final seven games in 2013 and has compiled an impressive 4-1 ATS mark in its last five home games. The Fins are also 4-1 ATS in their L/5 games in the month of September.

In addition to this, I also like the Under to play out against the 46½ -point O/U Total with the Fins and Pats combining to score 44 points or less in each of their last four meetings.

The Under is also 6- 2 in New England’s last eight games against teams from the AFC East and 6- 1 in Miami’s last seven games overall.

The total has gone Under in five straight home games for Miami and 4-0 in their last four meetings against New England .

Week 1 NFL AFC East Betting Pick: Miami +4 Points/Under 46½ Total Points.

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