Do you love the feeling you get when you pick a winner that no one gave a shot at winning? Everyone loves an underdog story, especially when you bet on them. That’s why you need my Week 10 NFL upset picks.
Week 10 NFL Upset Picks
What teams appear primed for upsets against the spread in Week 10 of NFL betting action? Can Green Bay cover versus Tennessee as a road favorite? How will Miami do as a +3.5 dog against San Diego in California? Do the Rams have any shot of beating the Jets straight up as a +2.5 ATS road dog this Sunday?
Green Bay at Tennessee
When: Sunday, Nov. 13 at 1:00 pm ET
Where: Nissan Stadium, Nashville, TN
Odds: Tennessee +2.5
Analysis: Green Bay travels to Nissan Stadium in Nashville to take on the Tennessee Titans. That itself could spell disaster for the Packers. There are a couple of issues with Green Bay’s offense.
Fist, the Packers have no real running backs to speak of. Since Green Bay can’t get a lot going against the ground in this battle, Tennessee allows 96.4 rushing yards per game on average, it should lead to Green Bay’s second problem on offense.
The second issue that Green Bay has on offense is QB Aaron Rodgers’ penchant for pushing the envelope with his passes. He was atrocious against the Indianapolis Colts’ defense on Nov. 6. Rodgers did end up throwing 3 TD passes and getting it going late in the game. But by then, the Colts had rushed out to a 31 to 13 lead. That’s the problem. Green Bay’s defense isn’t good enough to hold sway while Rodgers gets it together late in games.
Tennessee is my top Week 10 NFL upset betting pick.
Week 10 NFL Upset Pick: Tennessee
Los Angeles at NY Jets
When: Sunday, Nov. 13 at 1:00 pm ET
Where: MetLife Stadium, East Rutherford, NJ
Odds: Los Angeles +2.5
Analysis: The New York Jets are a mess of a team. This Sunday, they may have to start rookie Christian Hackenburg since Bryce Petty is hurt and starter Ryan Fitzpatrick hurt his knee this past Sunday in a loss to Miami.
The Rams aren’t a terrific team. They’ve lost 4 games in a row. Every single one of the losses was to a tough squad, though. Buffalo is a good team. Detroit is tough at home and the Giants just beat Philadelphia. There’s no shame in losing to Carolina.
Los Angeles played tough in all 4 of those losses. Now, they get a chance to battle a Jets’ team that appears snake bit. The Jets’ offense is terrible while the defense is just okay. Rams’ Coach Jeff Fisher has shown that he doesn’t mind winning games by slim margins.
My second NFL Week 10 upset pick are the Rams and they will beat the Jets by at least a fieldgoal.
Week 10 NFL Upset Pick: Los Angeles
Miami at San Diego
When: Sunday, Nov. 13 at 4:05 pm ET
Where: Qualcomm Stadium, San Diego, CA
Odds: Miami +3.5
Analysis: The Miami Dolphins, like New Orleans in the NFC, has started to heat up. Although it’s too late for Miami to catch the New England Patriots, at 4-4 it’s not too late for the Fins to get an AFC Wildcard berth to the playoffs.
Miami has been unbelievably good in their last 3 games. They’ve gone both 3-0 straight up and 3-0 against the spread. The Dolphins beat Pittsburgh 30 to 15 straight up as a +7.5 dog. They took down Buffalo 28 to 25 as a +2.5 dog. They beat the Jets 27 to 23 as a -3.5 favorite.
I like San Diego. I believe that the Chargers are a good enough team to make the AFC Playoffs as well. But San Diego tends to play to its competition’s level in games. Although the Chargers ended up beating Tennessee 43 to 35 in their last, it wasn’t easy.
Miami is focused. They are my final NFL Week 10 lock pick.