NFL Week 11 Free Picks – Choosing Between Foles and RG3 This Weekend

NFL Philadelphia Eagles Cary Williams takes down Robert Griffen III

NFL Week 11 Free Picks – Choosing Between Foles and RG3 This Weekend

If you were to make a choice between building your franchise around RG3 or Nick Foles, it would be an easy choice, but discerning which one makes for a better commodity in NFL Week 11 free picks is a bit of a nightmare. Both teams entered the season with very high hopes, but neither have lived up to expectations. The Eagles could challenge for the NFC East title if they win this game, while the Redskins practically need a victory on Sunday to keep their playoff chances on life support.

Washington Redskins (3-6) vs. Philadelphia Eagles (5-5)
The Philadelphia Eagles host the Washington Redskins at Lincoln Financial Field
Starts: 11/17/2013 1:00PM
Lincoln Financial Field, One Lincoln Financial Field Way
Philadelphia, Pennsylvania

 

Washington is coming off a brutal loss against Minnesota, where they were outscored 27-34. They are now 3-2 SU and ATS over their last five games, and have flip flopped those wins and covers every other week. The sad part about the Vikings loss is that it reaffirmed Washington’s defensive issues. The timing of their meltdown on that side of the ball couldn’t come at a more agonizing moment in a tough season because RG3 is starting to look like his old self yet again.

Simply put, Griffin is far more comfortable in games than he has been all season. It’s hard to remember that, especially since the Redskins are such an unreliable market entity in NFL betting. He threw for 281 yards and 3 touchdowns last Thursday against Minnesota, which is the type of stat line we’ve come to expect from him. More importantly, in his last five games he’s run the ball 34 times for a blistering 229 yards on the ground. No matter what, you have to account for RG3 in full.

As I said earlier, however, it might not matter because this Redskins defense has been getting destroyed lately. Washington has surrendered a whopping 35.0 points against per in their last 5 games, which is big trouble as Chip Kelly and Nick Foles come to town.

Bonus NFC Betting Picks:

Date
Away
Home
Pick
Sun, Nov-17-2013
Atlanta
Tampa Bay
TB +1
Sun, Nov-17-2013
Minnesota
Seattle
MIN +12
Sun, Nov-17-2013
Green Bay
NY Giants
NYG -5
Sun, Nov-17-2013
San Francisco
New Orleans
NO -3.5
Sun, Nov-17-2013
New England
Carolina
CAR -1.0

Nick Foles has seen significant action in the Eagles’ last five games. Over that span he’s totaled 1,207 passing yards, 15 throwing touchdowns (plus one rushing) and has completed 62.3 percent of his passes. He’s also thrown zero interceptions. Those are Pro Bowl type numbers. No matter what you think of the former third round pick, you have to give him credit for finally producing in a way that he never did under Philadelphia’s previous regime.

Those five games represent a 3-2 SU and ATS record for Philadelphia against relatively similar competition compared to Washington. Green Bay, Oakland, the New York Giants, Dallas and Tampa are an arm’s reach away from the Redskins in terms of talent and production this season, so it’s fair that Philly is a strong home favorite in this one. When Foles starts, like he did against Tampa, Green Bay and Oakland, the Eagles are 3-0 SU and ATS.

Foles is surrounded by incredible talent, and a coach that lets him air it out as he sees fit. Lost in the midst of Foles’ rise to fame is LeSean McCoy who leads the league in rushing so far. With defenses scrambling to account for DeSean Jackson, the running lanes are open for the unstoppable Shady.

For me this game is all about momentum. Washington’s offense is improving as their defense falls apart, and the defense in Philadelphia has been decent enough over the last few weeks to warrant some consideration. They haven’t allowed more than 21-points in the last five games and have a defensive scoring average of just 18.2 over that stretch.

You may not be that enamored with Foles over the long haul, but in the vacuum of this specific matchup, he’s simply a better bet than Robert Griffin III. That’s a sentence I may never ever right again.

NFL Week 11 Free Picks – Philadelphia -3.5 (OVER)