A Closer Look At My NFL Week 11 Upset Picks

NFL Week 11 Upset Picks – Rams + Raiders + Bears = ?

The biggest upset in Week 10 in the NFL had to be Houston beating Cincinnati 10 to 6 on Monday night. Cincinnati was a huge -10.5 point favorite to add misery to Houston’s season.

Week 12 figures to be ultra-competitive. The largest spread so far is Carolina at -7.5 over Washington. That game didn’t make it onto the upset picks’ article since the article is all about betting on teams straight up. The games that did make it onto the article are St. Louis at Baltimore, Oakland at Detroit and Denver at Chicago.

A Closer Look At My NFL Week 11 Upset Picks

What: St. Louis Rams (4-5) at Baltimore Ravens (2-7)
When: Sunday, November 22, 2015
Kickoff: 1:00 PM ET 
Where: Baltimore, MD
M&T Bank Stadium
Weather: 55° F | Decreasing Cloudiness
Spread: Ravens -2
Moneyline: St. Louis +108 vs Baltimore -128
Game Total: 41.5
Watch: FOX
Stream: Fox Sports Go
Listen: St. Louis vs Baltimore

Analysis: St. Louis will bench QB Nick Foles for this game. Case Keenum will start in his place. Before everybody starts bagging on Keenum, remember that he’ll face the 26th ranked passing defense in the NFL. The Ravens give up 271 yards per game through the air. Baltimore’s D allows a ridiculous 26 points per game on average.

Keenum has been in the league since the 2012-2013 NFL Season. He has the experience. He’s started games before. He knows Coach Jeff Fisher’s system. Plus, he’ll have the terrific Todd Gurley to lean on in the running game. He’ll also be able to lean on the very good St. Louis Rams defense. Go Rams!

Pick: St. Louis

What: Oakland Raiders (4-5) at Detroit Lions (2-7)
When: Sunday, November 22, 2015
Kickoff: 1:00 PM ET 
Where: Detroit, MI
Stadium: Ford Field
Spread: Raiders -1.5
Moneyline: Oakland -128 vs Detroit +108
Game Total: 47.5
Watch: CBS
Stream: CBS Sports
Listen: Oakland vs Detroit

Analysis: Detroit was all out to beat Green Bay at Lambeau Field in Week 11. The Lions shut down QB Aaron Rodgers and the Green Bay defense to the tune of 16 points. Yes, it took a missed Mason Crosby field goal for Detroit to hang on to the victory, but it was a great win for a down trodden franchise.

Now, Detroit has to take on hot QB Derek Carr and his bevy of excellent wide receivers. The Oakland QB has thrown for 13 touchdowns to only 3 interceptions in the Raiders’ last 4 games. He’s thrown for over 300 yards in 3 straight games.

Even with the win over Green Bay, the Lions’ defense is still allowing a ridiculous 29 points per game. Raiders romp.

Pick: Oakland

What: Denver Broncos (7-2) at Chicago Bears (4-5)
When: Sunday, November 22, 2015
Kickoff: 1:00 PM ET 
Where: Chicago, IL
Stadium: Soldier Field
Weather: 42° F | Cloudy
Spread: Chicago -1.5
Game Total: 41
Watch: CBS
Stream: CBS Sports
Listen: Denver vs Chicago

Analysis: Denver might actually be better with QB Brock Osweiler starting than QB Peyton Manning. No matter who you are, playing injured will lead to failure in the NFL. That’s just the way it goes.

Osweiler will have some success. The problem is that he faces a Chicago defense built around stopping the pass, 217 yards per game allowed, instead of stopping the run, 118.6 yards per game allowed. The reason it’s an issue is because the Broncos rush for 86 yards per game. That ranks Denver 29th in the NFL.

Denver’s defense has shown some wear and tear in the Broncos’ last 2 matchups, both losses. Ride Chicago to an upset win on Sunday.  

Pick: Chicago

Posted in NFL