NFL Week 11 Betting Cheat Sheet

NFL Week 11 Betting Cheat Sheet

Cleveland, the New York Giants, New Orleans and Pittsburgh have the week off. But, there is still plenty of excellent NFL action in Week 11 to find the potentially profitable ATS, over/under and moneyline picks.

How will Denver react to Manning’s injury? What will St. Louis do in Baltimore after a stunning loss?  Could Carolina be a possible victim ATS or on the moneyline to hot Washington? Keep reading to find out!

Bye Teams: Cleveland, Pittsburgh, NY Giants, New Orleans

NFL Week 11 ATS Picks

Denver at Chicago
When: Sunday, Nov. 22 at 1:00 pm ET
Odds: Denver -1

Analysis: QB Peyton Manning has a torn plantar fascia in his left foot. What is means is that he’s going to have trouble planting his left foot and throwing from back foot to left foot, sort of the way a boxer shifts his weight from the left-side to the right-side when throwing a left-hook except in reverse.

Yes, that was a long-winded way of saying that Peyton may end up throwing passes from his back foot. That wouldn’t be good. Instead of risking it, Coach Gary Kubiak is likely to start QB Brock Osweiler. Osweiler would usually be plenty good enough to beat up on Chicago’s defense, but the Bears are allowing only 217 passing yards per game. Plus, Denver doesn’t rush the ball well.  

Pick: Chicago

St. Louis at Baltimore
When: Sunday, Nov. 22 at 1:00 pm ET
Odds: Baltimore -1

Analysis:  Baltimore is favored over St. Louis. That’s strange considering that the Ravens’ defense gave up 37 points to Chicago in Week 11. Baltimore has lost their last two games.

Baltimore’s defense is decent against the rush when allowing only 109 yards per game. It’s very good against the pass. Unfortunately, the Ravens score only 18.4 points from 309.6 yards per game. That’s not going to cut it against a very aggressive Rams’ defense.

Pick: St. Louis

Washington at Carolina
When: Sunday, Nov. 22 at 1:00 pm ET
Odds: Carolina -7.5

Analysis: Carolina has looked like the best team in the NFL in their last 3 games. The Carolina defense steps it up when it has to and QB Cam Newton makes the right decisions more often than not.

But, eventually, things should even out for the Panthers who run into a very tough Washington team this Sunday. Washington’s Kirk Cousins looked exceptional when tearing up the Saints’ defense on his way to 324 yards, 4 touchdowns and an 80% completion rate. Who says this guy  isn’t turning into a real QB in the NFL?

Washington can keep it close.

Pick: Washington

NFL Week 11 Game Total Over/Under Picks

Indianapolis at Atlanta
When: Sunday, Nov. 22 at 1:00 pm ET
Total: 47.5

Analysis: Atlanta allows 253.4 yards passing per game. That’s not very good. The Falcons’ D is based around stopping the rush, not the pass. Good news for Colts’ fans is that Indy’s offense is based on passing the football, not rushing the football.

Indianapolis should score in this game. Atlanta should definitely score more than the 20 that they put up against Tampa two games ago and the 16 that they put against San Francisco in their last game. Hopefully, Atlanta offensive coordinator Kyle Shanahan and QB Matt Ryan put together a great offensive game plan for the terrible Colts’ defense in this.

Pick: Over

Kansas City at San Diego
When: Sunday, Nov. 22 at 4:05 pm ET
Total: 45.5

Analysis: Wide receivers Malcolm Floyd and Keenan Allen are out. San Diego’s offense line is still banged up and the Chargers have lost 5 games in a row.

Kansas City’s defense has allowed a total of 36 points in their last 3 games, all wins. The KC defense has been on fire when scoring 23, 45 and 29 in their last 3. Expect KC to score over 30 in this while QB Phillip Rivers at San Diego should be more effective than Peyton Manning was against KC’s D.   

Pick: Over

Green Bay at Minnesota
When: Sunday, Nov. 22 at 4:25 pm ET
Total: 45

Analysis: Green Bay travels to Minnesota as a 1 point underdog. That’s crazy. It makes sense when one realizes that Green Bay has lost 3 games in a row. The Packers could only score 16 points against Detroit’s bad defense in their last game.

Minnesota has a good defense. The Packers are likely to try and get RB James Starks loose in the passing game. If they can do that, the Pack might have a shot to put up a few points. The reason to love the under is the fact that Minnesota’s game is all about controlling the clock with RB Adrian Peterson and short passes.

Pick: Under

NFL Week 11 Straight Up Moneyline Picks

Oakland at Detroit
When: Sunday, Nov. 22 at 1:00 pm ET
Odds: Oakland -1.5

Analysis: Don’t let Detroit’s 18 to 16 win over Green Bay fool you. The Lions’ secondary still allows 260.1 yards per game. Detroit’s defense still allows 29 points per game. The Lions’ offense averages 18.6 points per game.

Oakland’s offense averages 25.2 points and 374.2 per. The Raiders should score at will in this matchup while Oakland’s defense has a shot of getting to QB Matthew Stafford.

Pick: Oakland

Dallas at Miami
When: Sunday, Nov. 22 at 1:00 pm ET
Odds: Miami -1

Analysis: Is this the game where Dallas finally breaks through with a win? Not likely. The betting line should go up to Miami -2 to Miami -3.

Ndaumkong Suh has started to turn it up. Suh had a sack versus Philadelphia in Miami’s 20 to 19 win even though he saw even more double-teams because Cameron Wake is out for the season. If Suh continues to play with fire, he likely will just to show up Dallas’ defensive lineman Greg Hardy, Miami should roll over the Boys in this battle.

Pick: Miami

Cincinnati at Arizona
When: Sunday, Nov. 22 at 8:30 pm ET
Odds: TBD

Analysis: Cincinnati faces the beset defense and the best offense that it’s faced all season long. They also have to take on Arizona on the road.

The moneyline shouldn’t have Arizona as too big a favorite in this matchup. What it means is that moneyline bettors could get a nice score without having to put up too much money on the Cardinals. Arizona proved in Week 10 that they have what it takes to win the Super Bowl after thumping Seattle 39 to 32 on the road. Back Arizona.

Pick: Arizona

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