Week 13 NFL Free Picks – Kansas City Falling Apart As It Hosts Denver

NFL Chiefs Brandon Flowers

Week 13 NFL Free Picks – Kansas City Falling Apart As It Hosts Denver

To be honest, this game is much harder to dish out a Week 13 NFL free pick than you think. The Chiefs have lost two of their best defensive players in Justin Houston (elbow) and Tamba Hali (ankle), and the former has been ruled out already. It might not matter completely because Denver’s offensive line devoured Kansas City’s front-seven when these teams met last week. Andy Reid is in a tough spot right now, but this team is still in line for a playoff spot and they should be a threat in the playoffs. I’m not sold that this is a sinking ship.

After a rip roaring start to the year, Kansas has also fallen in the NFL betting toilet. They’re just 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games, and are coming off back-to-back losses. But there is reason to hope. Alex Smith erupted last weekend 294 passing yards on 24-of-38 attempts and passed for 3 touchdowns and 1 interception. The Chargers can play well when they have some in-game momentum so I’m not going to take a lot away from them. That was an awesome matchup, and the combined losses of Houston and Hali gave San Diego the crease it needed to stay in that fight.

Denver Broncos (9-2) vs. Kansas City Chiefs (9-2)
The Denver Broncos are 5.5 point favorites on the road against the Kansas City Chiefs in week 13.
Starts: 12/01/2013 4:25PM
Arrowhead Stadium, One Arrowhead Drive
Kansas City, Missouri

 

The hope with Kansas in this matchup is two fold. They have to switch gears and unleash their offence instead of playing tight to the chest all game. That was how they played against Denver in their first meeting and it didn’t work. Alex Smith leads a capable offence with some big play makers, and the second reason Kansas has a chance is because their best corner back in Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie who seems doubtful for the matchup. If he’s not able to shutdown or limit Bowe, this Denver defense is going to have another rough game.

Obviously, Denver is a great offensive team but after blasting New England early in the first half of that Sunday Night thriller, they completely fell apart. Manning had just 150 passing yards, but was also missing Julius Thomas who seems like he’ll be back in action this weekend. Knowshon Moreno will also be available though it remains to be seen how much work he’ll be able to handle with a bruised ankle.

BONUS NFL BETTING PICKS

Date
Away
Home
Pick
Sun, Dec 1 2013
New England
Houston
NE -7.5
Sun, Dec 1 2013
Tampa Bay
Carolina
CAR -8.5
Sun, Dec 1 2013
Jacksonville
Cleveland
JAX +7
Sun, Dec 1 2013
Chicago
Minnesota
MIN -1.5
Sun, Dec 1 2013
Arizona
Philadelphia
ARZ +3
Sun, Dec 1 2013
Atlanta
Buffalo
BUF -3
Sun, Dec 1 2013
Miami
NY Jets
MIA +2
Sun, Dec 1 2013
St. Louis
San Francisco
STL +8.5

I’m not thrilled with how Denver has been playing in the last few weeks. They lost a tremendous amount of momentum by being held out of the endzone against an undermanned New England team. Denver’s 2-5 ATS record when playing on the road against teams with winning home records, along with their 3-7 ATS record when playing winning teams overall at any location, gives reason to lean away from Peyton Manning.

I’m willing to believe that Kansas will pay this Week 13 NFL betting matchup with a much different approach. Alex Smith is not a stat machine but he can be scary efficient, and without a fully healthy Rodgers-Cromartie, the Denver secondary is ripe for the picking. It’s also worthwhile to point out that the betting community in general isn’t sold on the supposed demise of the Chiefs, since the action is split down the middle for this one. A lot of people are willing to take a chance on the home dogs in Week 13 NFL betting and you should too.

Week 13 NFL Betting Free Pick – Kansas City +5.5