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NFL Week 15 ATS Upset Pick – Green Bay Vs Buffalo

Aaron Rodgers, Jordy Nelson and the juggernaut Green Bay Packers have won nine of their last 10 games straight up and are 7-3 against the spread over that span. Now with their sights set on securing a division title and at least a first-round bye in the upcoming NFC playoffs, they run into what might be a tough test this week when they head to Buffalo to take on Kyle Orton, Sammy Watkins and the surprising 7-6 Bills.

The Packers are a solid 5 point favorite over the home team Bills at Ralph Wilson Stadium. The game total is 50.5. Click here for all of Sunday’s NFL odds.

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Matchup: Green Bay Packers at Buffalo Bills  
Date: Dec. 14, 2014 
Start Time: 1:00 p.m. ET 
Location Buffalo, New York
Stadium: Ralph Wilson Stadium
TV Info: FOX
Radio:  Green Bay Vs  Buffalo
Point Spread: Packers -5
Game Total: 50.5

Analyzing My NFL Week 15 Upset ATS Pick – Green Bay Packers at Buffalo Bills

Topping everyone’s power rankings and favorites to represent the NFC in February, the Green Bay Packers have won nine of their last ten games, including the last five. Their last loss was in New Orleans in week 8 following convincing wins over theChicago Bears, Philadelphia Eagles, Minnesota Vikings, New England Patriots and most recently the Atlanta Falcons.

Rodgers leads the 6th ranked passing attack in the NFL. He has completed 24 of his 36 passes for 327 yards, 3 TDs with 0 INTs in the 43-37 win against the Atlanta Falcons on Monday Nigh Football this past week.

His total numbers in this 2014 campaign are redonkulous: completing 66.35% of his passes for 3652 yards, 35 TDs and just three interceptions. Helping Rodgers to his MVP-calibre season are a speedy duo of wideouts. Jordy Nelson has 78 catches and 12 touchdowns and Randal Cobb has 69 catches and 10 touchdowns. After a shaky start to the season RB Eddie Lacy has found his game, rumbling for 843 and seven touchdowns and he has 36 receptions and four touchdowns

This week the Packers unstoppable offense faces the sack-leading defense this week. The Buffalo defense is allowing a 4th best in the NFL 18.5 points and a 5th best 311.9 yards per game. 

The Bills offense is averaging 21.6 points and 327.2 yards per game and they are led by Kyle Orton who has completed 64.7 percent of his passes with 14 touchdowns and seven interceptions. Fred Jackson leads the Bills ground attack while Anthony Dixon and Bryce Brown also are getting carries and Sammy Watkins has 58 catches and five touchdowns and Robert Woods has 52 catches.

Bills head coach Doug Marrone has never faced the Green Packers, but his team is 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games as a home underdog, 4-1 ATS in their last 5 home games vs. a team with a winning road record, but 8-18-1 ATS in their last 27 games following an ATS win.

Packers head coach Mike McCarthy is 1-1 when facing the Bills and his team is 21-8-1 ATS in their last 30 games following an ATS loss, 21-7-1 ATS vs. a team with a winning record, and 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games overall.

Everyone is high on the Packers and I don’t blame them. I think they will win, but won’t cover. The Bills front 7 will stop Lacy and rush Rodgers.

NFL Week 15 ATS Upset Pick: Bills +5

Posted in NFL