NFL Week 15 ATS Upset Pick - San Francisco at Seattle

NFL Week 15 ATS Upset Pick – San Francisco at Seattle

The Seattle Seahawks would love to put the last nail in the San Francisco 49ers’ playoff coffin as they meet this Sunday, at 4:25 PM ET in Seattle in a key NFC West battle.

After getting off to a 3-3 start, the defending champion Seahawks have won six of their last seven games and are back in Super Bowl form with their defense returning to the game changing force it was last season. To go along with the dominating defense, the Seahawks also have the top rushing attack in the league with the one-two punch of QB Russell Wilson and Marshawn "Beast Mode" Lynch combining for 1700 yards.

The 49ers also have a top tier defense, but offensive struggles have sunk their playoff homes. QB Colin Kaepernick has regressed even with great playmakers to throw to. His erratic play and poor decision making has been primarily due to being sacked 43 times and a drop in rushing attempts even in close games.

The home team Seahawks are favored by 10 points over the 49ers in the week 15 NFL betting spread, and the game total is the lowest of the week at 38 points.

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Matchup: San Francisco 49ers at Seattle Seahawks 
Date: Dec. 14, 2014 
Start Time: 4:25 p.m. ET 
Location: Seattle, Washington
Stadium: CenturyLink Field
TV Info: FOX
Radio:  San Francisco Vs  Seattle
Point Spread: Seahawks -10
Game Total: 38

Analyzing My 49ers Vs Seahawks NFL Week 15 ATS Upset Pick

The San Francisco 49ers are but eliminated from the playoff race with their 7-6 record. Insult to injury would be their embarrassing 24-13 loss to the Raiders in Oakland last week putting both head coach Jim Harbaugh’s job and their 4 straight playoff appearance on the plank.

The 49ers have scored a measly 20 points in the last two games combined, including a Thanksgiving home loss against the Seahawks. They have averaged lousy 9.75 points per game in the last four games and rank 27th in passing yards and 16th in rushing. Kaepernick has regressed, completing 248 passes of his 409 attempts for 2910 yards, 16 TDs & 10 INTs, which is his highest turnover ratio since entering the league in 2011.

San Francisco has, for some unknown reason, stopped running the ball. They are averaging four yards per carry, but RB Frank Gore has only averaged 55.5 yards per game over their last two outings. He leads the team with 775 rushing yards and two touchdowns on the season.

Their only saving grace, even with injuries and suspensions, is their defense. The 49ers are allowing 20.6 points, 308.5 yards, and they’ve forced 27 sacks and 22 turnovers. They are ranked 4th against the pass against 7th at stopping the run.

The Seattle Seahawks opened the season with a unimpressive 3-3 record, destined to prove that the Super Bowl hangover existed. They lost a few key cogs in the offseason, but with their defense getting healthy for the first time this year they are poised to make a run to repeat. The the Seattle Seahawks are allowing 18.1 points, 274.5 yards, and they’ve forced 23 sacks and 20 turnovers. Their pass defense is 1st in the league and their rushing defense is 3rd.

Russell Wilson is completing 63.4 percent of his passes for 17 touchdowns and five interceptions. Wilson has five total touchdowns and zero picks in his last three games, and the Seahawks have 41 passing plays of 20 or more yards. After losing Golden Tate to the Lions in the offseason and Percy Harvin being dumped uncerimoniously a few weeks ago, WRs Doug Baldwin and Jermaine Kearse have combined for more than 1,000 receiving yards and four touchdowns this season.

The Seahawks ground game is tops in the league, averaging 5.2 yards per carry, as Marshawn Lynch leads the way with 1,042 rushing yards and nine touchdowns.

They not only are 9-4 in the season, but in case of an tie with Green Bay in the standings, they would have the upper hand after beating the Packers in the season opener. Last week, the Seahawks dominated the Eagles in Philadelphia, beating them 24-14 while holding QB Mark Sanchez to only 96 yards in the afternoon. Seattle has allowed an incredible 6.6 points per game over the last three games, in wins over Arizona, San Francisco, and Philadelphia.

Jim Harbaugh and Seahawks head coach Pete Carroll have a well documented, lengthy rivalry dating back to their college coaching days, but with all of the contervesy surrounding Harbaugh’s job, Carroll came to his defense.

“I watched all the stuff he did at Stanford to turn that program around, and I’ve watched him with the 49ers. I know he’s a great football coach.

“Not everybody likes everybody or gets along with everybody, they sometimes don’t see the magic that guys have. I think he’s a fantastic football coach.

“He’s proven that. There’s no question about that. The fact he’s going through all these conversations and such, he’s a stud. He’s not going to waver. He’s going to keep battling and do what he does. He’s a great competitor and always has been.

“That’s why they’re so dangerous coming in right now, because of his leadership and the toughness with how he runs his program. The fact all these conversations are going on, it has nothing to do with the kind of football coach he is and the style of play they generate and the way they bring it.

“I have tremendous respect for him.

“All the other stuff you guys always thought was going on, there ain’t much to it. Really, this is two football guys going at it, two guys that love to compete and battle.

“There’s nobody I’d rather play. I love playing against him. That’s the way it’s been since the beginning.”

Carroll can say that with ease. In the last 4 years, since Harbaugh took over in San Francisco, the 49ers are 0-3 in Seattle.

The 49ers are 25-12-2 ATS in their last 39 games following a SU loss, 26-11-3 ATS in their last 40 games following an ATS loss, 12-5 ATS in their last 17 road games, but 1-4 ATS in their last 5 vs. NFC West and 1-4 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.

The Seahawks are 35-16-1 ATS in their last 52 home games, 23-11 ATS in their last 34 games following a SU win, 20-7 ATS vs. a team with a winning record, 6-1 ATS in their last 7 home games vs. a team with a winning road record, and 36-16 ATS in their last 52 vs. NFC.

Seattle is the better team, but they can’t move the ball unless they run it. I predict the 49ers do exactly that after their embarrassing loss in Oakland last week. Seattle will win but San Francisco will cover the 10 point week 15 NFL betting spread.

NFL Week 15 ATS Upset Pick: 49ers +10

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