Week 16 NFL Picks – Colts-Chiefs A Potential Playoff Preview

NFL - Kansas City Chiefs

Week 16 NFL Picks – Colts-Chiefs A Potential Playoff Preview

After suffering three straight losses, and enduring the hatred of doubters all over the country, the Kansas City Chiefs have bounced back in dramatic fashion and are hefty home favorites in Week 16 NFL betting against Indianapolis. The Colts are likely going to end up with the fourth seed, while Kansas has locked down the fifth seed already so this could be a fun, potential playoff preview for fans. Can Indy withstand a Kansas team peaking at the perfect time?

The truth about Kansas City is that they haven’t actually had any bad games. They made a few mistakes the first time they played Denver, losing 17-27, while pushing them to the absolute limit in a 28-35 loss two weekends later. In between they faced Philip Rivers playing perhaps the best game I’ve ever seen him put together while losing two of their best defensive players. I was someone that thought that these defeats were explainable and I wasn’t ready to abandon hope that the Chiefs could stun the AFC after finishing with a 2-14 SU record in 2012.

Indianapolis Colts (9-5) vs. Kansas City Chiefs (11-3)
The Indianapolis Colts are 7 points underdogs visiting the Kansas City Chiefs in week 16.
Starts: 12/22/2013 1:00PM
Arrowhead Stadium, One Arrowhead Drive
Kansas City, Missouri

 

My faith was rewarded with Kansas demolishing both Oakland and Washington on the road with combined scores of 111-41 where they notched two solid covers. So, despite this game being a potential playoff preview, the oddsmakers are setting the Week 16 betting line at KAN -7.0 for good reason. The Chiefs have dominated both offensively and defensively in the past two weeks, and both Alex Smith and Jamaal Charles look to be in fine form.

Andy Reid will understand the importance of sending a definitive message before Kansas likely takes a breather in Week 17. No matter how badly Indy does down the stretch, there’s no way they can drop lower than 4th in the playoff standings meaning that they’ll probably host the Chiefs over wild card weekend. Kansas can only move up ahead of Denver if the Broncos lose to the Texans, which seems unfathomable. This is an opportunity for Kansas to put the fear of god in to their opponent, and they won’t take this chance lightly.

Bonus Week 16 NFL Picks

Date
Away
Home
Pick
Sun, Dec 22nd 2013
Cleveland
New York
NYJ -2.5
Sun, Dec 22nd 2013
Minnesota
Cincinnati
CIN -7.5
Sun, Dec 22nd 2013
Denver
Houston
DEN -10.5
Sun, Dec 22nd 2013
Tennessee
Jacksonville
JAX +5.5
Sun, Dec 22nd 2013
Miami
Buffalo
MIA -2.5
Sun, Dec 22nd 2013
New Orleans
Carolina
CAR -3.0
Sun, Dec 22nd 2013
Dallas
Washington
WAS +2.5
Sun, Dec 22nd 2013
Tampa Bay
St. Louis
TB +5.5
Sun, Dec 22nd 2013
Arizona
Seattle
SEA -10.5
Sun, Dec 22nd 2013
New York Giants
Detroit
NYG +10.0
Sun, Dec 22nd 2013
Oakland
San Diego
SD -10.0
Sun, Dec 22nd 2013
Pittsburgh
Green Bay
GB -2.5
Sun, Dec 22nd 2013
New England
Baltimore
BAL -2.5
Sun, Dec 22nd 2013
Chicago
Philadelphia
PHI -3.0

Indianapolis has been a fraud all season since losing Reggie Wayne, and while Andrew Luck is still a phenomenal quarterback, he’s surrounded by hapless scrubs who can’t hope to protect him or give him the support he needs to succeed. The road reveals the true nature of a team, and Indy has been flummoxed in their recent travels with a 2-3 SU and 1-4 ATS record in away games. Their opponents have included Cincinnati and other potential playoff teams like Tennessee, Arizona and San Diego. Their only win and cover came against lowly Houston.

This matchup should be a classic case of Kansas City rolling up their sleeves and pushing Indianapolis around to see how much fight they have. Indy’s pass protection will be overwhelmed by the amount of blitzes they’ll face in this game, which could open up channels for Andrew Luck but his receiving corps is a 50-50 at best, while his running game won’t even be able to get out of the gates.

The Chiefs have blown up their last two opponents, but since this is a potential playoff preview, they could very well revert back to playing tighter to the chest and leaning on their defense to get the job done. Reid might not want to play all his cards, but I believe he wants his team at full throttle come wild card weekend.

Feeling out Kansas’s state of mind heading in to this one could make this a tough cover as my Week 16 NFL pick, but I just don’t see how Kansas pulls their foot off the pedal at this point. The Chiefs have a lot of tricks up their sleeve, but they’re also a great smash-mouth football team. They’ll punch Luck and the Colts early and often to see just how much fight this young team has. When Indy lays down by the end of the first quarter, Kansas will take the chance to blow up the scoreboard and show their potential playoff opponent just what they’re in for come wild card weekend.

NFL Week 16 NFL Pick – Kansas City -7.0