NFL Week 16 Upset Alert PicksJosh Bailey
There are now just two weeks remaining in the 2014-15 NFL regular season, with a number of teams still alive for a shot at the postseason. Following Sunday’s games here are a few NFL week 16 upset alert picks.
Green Bay battles Tampa Bay in a Sunday game that the team from Lambeau has to win, while Indianapolis travels to Dallas as an underdog.
Analyzing My NFL Week 16 Upset Alert Picks
Green Bay Packers at Tampa Bay Buccaneers
When: Sunday, Dec. 21 at 1:00 pm ET
Betting Line: Green Bay -10.5
Analysis: 71% of NFL football handicappers are backing the Packers to cover the spread in this matchup on Sunday. Why not? Tampa Bay is one of the worst teams in the NFL. Record-wise, the Bucs are on their way to securing the top pick in next April’s NFL Draft.
Aaron Rodgers: I expect more of myself http://t.co/d6RJ1iXsvz
— ProFootballTalk (@ProFootballTalk) December 15, 2014
But Green Bay is a much different team on the road than they are at home. The Packers have gone 2 and 5 against the spread in away games this season. They’re also a terrible 1 and 3 against the spread in their last 4 games overall. The Packers failed to cover the spread against Minnesota in a 24 to 21 victory as a -7.5 road favorite and then Green Bay lost straight up to Buffalo 13 to 21 as a -3.5 point favorite.
Green Bay should beat Tampa Bay, but the Bucs are a good enough defense, and have a decent enough offense, to keep it closer than the 10.5 points.
NFL Week 16 Upset Alert Pick: Tampa Bay +10.5
Indianapolis Colts at Dallas Cowboys
When: Sunday, Dec. 21 at 4:25 pm ET
Betting Line: Dallas -3
Analysis: This should be a very good matchup. On paper, Dallas and Indianapolis appear well-suited for a major battle this Sunday because the Colts average 421.4 yards while Dallas averages 359.9 yards per game. Dallas’ defense is allowing 4.6 yards per rush and 7.7 yards per pass, though.
JUST IN: Cowboys RB DeMarco Murray will have surgery today on broken bone in his hand. Not ruled out yet Sunday vs Indy. (via @1053thefan)
— NFL on ESPN (@ESPNNFL) December 15, 2014
The Colts’ defense isn’t much better but Indianapolis does have a cornerback in Vontae Davis who could possibly go on-on-one against Dallas’ WR Dez Bryant all by himself. Taking away Bryant might slow the Dallas’ offense just enough for Indy to take advantage.
The Cowboys’ defense is going to find it much tougher containing a QB like Andrew Luck, who has thrown for 4492 yards and 38 touchdowns, than it was containing a guy like Mark Sanchez. Luck cannot be stopped and when your defense is allowing 250 passing yards per game on average, you’re in for some trouble against one of the top quarterbacks in the NFL.