Week 16 NFL Upset PicksJosh Bailey
I’m not thrilled the NFL betting season is running out. There are two weeks left in the regular season, but I am jacked full of positivity with a trio outstanding, money making Week 16 NFL upset picks that I think will ALL win straight up as betting dogs. Let’s get started!
Week 16 NFL Upset Picks
It’s crazy that both my top picks are AFC North teams, but Cincy as a 2.5 point underdog and the Ravens returning over 1.5 times on the NFL moneyline seems like stealing. I also think the Jags will be stealing some of Mariota’s aerial action in the form of interceptions.
What: Cincinnati Bengals (5-8-1) at Houston Texans (8-6)
When: Saturday, Dec. 24 at 8:25 pm ET
Where: NRG Stadium (72,220 capacity) – Houston, Texas
Odds: Cincinnati +2.5
Analysis: I’ve looked at the arguments for why the Texans are favored, but it doesn’t make sense to me. It does give me and all of you a rare opportunity to make a sharp moneyline bet on a Week 16 NFL Upset Pick.
The Bengals were up 20-9 over the Steelers at halftime last week and would’ve won if they didn’t blow it at the end with penalties and mistakes. On the Houston side, they trailed the entire game to the Jaguars and barely pulled out a 21-20 win.
Houston went from QB Brock Osweiler, who they should have benched long ago, to putting in backup Tom Savage who threw more passes in this game than his entire career. Savage is going to start against the Bengals which will be great upside for the Bengals defense.
I understand the Texans pass defense is good, but with AJ Green’s probable return how are the Texans favored by the betting pointspread? Is this insane or is it just an easy opportunity to take advantage of?
I’m definitely not insane, and this Week 16 NFL Upset pick is the BEST I have seen this year!
Pick: Cincinnati Bengals +115 on the Moneyline
What:Baltimore Ravens (8-6) at Pittsburgh Steelers (9-5)
When: Sunday, Dec. 25 at 4:30 pm ET
Where: Heinz Field (68,400 capacity) – Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania
Odds: Pittsburgh -4.5
Analysis: The Pittsburgh Steelers are on a nice 5 game winning streak right now and are finding ways to win. Big Ben and Le’Veon took a long time to get in a rhythm last week, and I don’t believe they ever get a chance to do that versus Ravens’ bad ass defense.
Baltimore already beat Pittsburgh 21-14 in a game that wasn’t as close as the score implies. The Ravens defense shut the Steelers offense down all game, and they scored 2 TDs late in the 4th quarter when the Ravens were playing some type of a prevent defense. They held Le’Veon Bell to 32 rushing yards (36 total rushing yards Pittsburgh) and 38 yards receiving.
The Ravens defense is one of the best in the NFL, and this is a great upset pick just based on how they shut Pitt down already once this year. They can do it again, and no way does Pitt score more than 20 points.
Pick: Baltimore Ravens +4.5 and Baltimore +170 Moneyline
What: Tennessee Titans (8-6) at Jacksonville Jaguars (2-12)
When: Saturday, Dec. 24 at 1:00 pm ET
Where: EverBank Field (67,246 capacity) – Jacksonville, Florida
Odds: Jacksonville +4.5
Analysis: The Titans are NOT a good team and hold a shaky 1-3 record in their AFC South Division, so how can they be favored by 4.5 points over anybody? The Jaguars aren’t any good either, but I don’t think there is any way Tennessee covers the betting spread and personally I think they lose straight up to the Jags.
After Marcus Mariota and Demarco Murray, the Titans don’t have anybody you can count on consistently on offense against the No. 7 defense in the NFL.
Jacksonville should’ve beaten the Texans last week, and I don’t think people are taking into account how good the Jaguars No. 4 pass defense is allowing just over 200 yards a game. Combine that with the Titans horrific pass D that is the 4th worst in the entire NFL, and I think Bortles has a chance to end this losing streak.
Pick: Jacksonville Jaguars +4.5 and if you can, take Jacksonville +170 on Moneyline