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NFL Week 17 Betting Cheat Sheet

The final week of the NFL Regular Season is my final chance to choose from the very best ATS, Over/Under and Moneyline wagers.

As crazy as it sounds, playoff seedings are still on the line. Tampa Bay takes on Carolina in a huge matchup that will determine who ends up with home field in the NFC. That game shows up in my best ATS wagers of the week. The other huge game in the NFC, Seattle at Arizona, shows up in my moneyline wagers of the week. Also, Minnesota plays Green Bay for the NFC North.

NFL Week 17 ATS Free Picks

New York Jets at Buffalo
When: Sunday, Jan. 3 at 1:00 pm ET
Odds: New York Jets -3

Analysis: Since losing 4 out of 5 during the middle of the season, the Jets have won 5 games in a row. No win was more satisfying than Week 16’s 26 to 20 victory over the Patriots in overtime. The Jets are on a roll at the perfect time. Buffalo has only a small chance of keeping this close. The Bills have gone 2 and 3 straight up and ATS in their last 5. Expect the Jets to win and take some momentum into the post-season.

Pick: New York Jets

Tampa Bay at Carolina
When: Sunday, Jan. 3 at 1:00 pm ET
Odds: Carolina -10.5

Analysis: Carolina’s 13 to 20 loss to Atlanta in Week 16 wasn’t surprising. The Panthers were due for a loss. What’s more surprising and what’s somewhat of a problem for the Panthers going into the playoffs is that they have gone 1 and 4 ATS in their last 5 games. Carolina’s offense has actually had to outscore their opponents twice in 2 out of those 4 games. The Panthers beat New Orleans 41 to 38 on Dec. 6. They beat the Giants 38 to 35 on Dec. 20. When it comes to this game, Tampa Bay has the rushing attack, 138.8 yards per game on the ground, to keep the Panthers offense off the field. Carolina could lose its second straight. In any case, the Panthers won’t cover.

Pick: Tampa Bay

New Orleans at Atlanta
When: Sunday, Jan. 3 at 1:00 pm ET
Odds: Atlanta -3.5

Analysis: New Orleans’s offense can really turn it on in when it wants to. The Falcons were undefeated at 5 and 0 until meeting the Saints on Oct. 15. New Orleans beat Atlanta 31 to 21. Nobody knew it at the time, but that put Atlanta on a playoff death spiral. The Falcons would end up losing 6 out of its next 7 games. Atlanta has nothing to play for except pride. That’s a huge thing in this rivalry. If the Falcons win, they won’t make the playoffs, but they will end the season with a winning record. Expect some payback from QB Matt Ryan and WR Julio Jones in this.  

Pick: Atlanta

NFL Week 17 Total Over/Under Picks

Pittsburgh at Cleveland
When: Sunday, Jan. 3 at 1:00 pm ET
Over/Under: 47

Analysis: Pittsburgh has to beat Cleveland in order to secure a playoff spot. The Steelers looked terrible when dropping a game to Baltimore in Week 16. Great coaches, like John Harbaugh at Baltimore, can get their team to play even though there isn’t much to play for. Sean Payton at New Orleans did it with the Saints in Week 16 and Harbaugh did it with the Ravens. Harbaugh’s D held the Steelers’ offense to only 17 points. Luckily, Pitt faces Coach Mike Pettine and his Browns’ defense in Week 17. After facing Seattle and KC, the Browns will find Pitt’s D much easier to handle. Go Over.

Pick: Over

Minnesota at Green Bay
When: Sunday, Jan. 3 at 1:00 pm ET
Over/Under: 48.5

Analysis: How big is this game? It’s big enough for the winner to go home with the NFC North title. Green Bay is favored, but Minnesota’s defense has been playing much better. Expect the Vikings to come out and control the line of scrimmage while holding the Packers offense to only two touchdowns and possibly a field goal. This game goes under.

Pick: Under

Oakland at Kansas City
When: Sunday, Jan. 3 at 1:00 pm ET
Over/Under: 43.5

Analysis: Oakland is good for maybe 10 to 13 points. The Raiders are one of only two teams, Buffalo is the other, that has scored 20 or more points against Kansas City in the Chiefs last 11 games. KC will win this battle against Oakland. The Chiefs can possibly play for the AFC Division title. But, Kansas City beats teams the 1990’s Dallas Cowboys’ way, with an excellent rushing attack, passes to their awesome tight-end, a terrific WR, and a stingy defense. This one is another under game.

Pick: Under

NFL Week 17 Straight Up Moneyline Picks

Philadelphia at New York Giants
When: Sunday, Jan. 3 at 1:00 pm ET
Odds: New York Giants -3.5

Analysis: Let’s just say it for what it is. Both of these teams are depressing. The Eagles were a stunning 8 to 1 before the season started to win the Super Bowl. That’s 8 to 1. Philly is 6 and 9 going into Week 17. Owner Jeff Laurie didn’t envision this when he handed the reigns to make personnel decisions over to Chip Kelly. The Giants are 6 and 9 as well. Who’s worse? The Giants because they’ve gone 1 and 4 straight up in their last 5 games. Then again, the players have given up on Kelly. So, it looks like Eli and Odell are going to end the season on a winning note.

Pick: New York Giants

Seattle at Arizona
When: Sunday, Jan. 3 at 4:25 pm ET
Odds: Arizona -3.5

Analysis: There’s probably only one team in the entire NFL that can beat the Arizona Cardinals right now. That team is Kansas City who has a cornerback, Marcus Peters, that can shut down at least one of Arizona’s wide receivers and a D-Line that can pressure QB Carson Palmer without linebacker help. Seattle doesn’t have the pieces on defense that will stop the Cardinals’ offense. The Desert Birds roll.  

Pick: Arizona

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