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NFL Week 2 Best Against The Spread Expert Picks – Dirty Dozen

Biggest betting lessons from Week 1, plus analyzing early Week 2 odds.

Welcome back NFL! With NFL week 1 ending with a bang last night, it is time to talk to the pessimistic NFL betting fan.

Don’t get down on your wagers early. There were pleanty of come from behind stories in week 1. Heavy favorites were down early *cough* Philadelphia *cough* against teams that were relegated to the basement. As we all know, the Eagles ended up not only rallying for the victory, but won 34-17 to cover the spread.

Here are my biggest betting lessons from this opening weekend’s games and the early Week 2 opening odds and picks.

My NFL Week 2 Best ATS Expert Picks

Matchup: Miami Dolphins at Buffalo Bills
Spread: Pk
Total: 43.5
Kickoff: 1:00 PM ET on Sunday, September 14
TV: CBS

The Fins and Bills will both look to remain undefeated in this AFC East battle after recording a pair of surprising (not to me) wins in Week 1.

Buffalo is coming off a hard-fought 23-20 road over Chicago as a 6.5-point road dog while Miami enters this matchup coming off an emphatic 33-20 beat-down of new England.

Miami is 6-2 ATS in its last 8 games, but just 2-4 ATS in its last half-dozen road games. Buffalo is 7-2 ATS in its last 9 games at home, but I like Miami’s defense and think they’ll get the outright road win here.

Matchup: Arizona Cardinals at New York Giants
Spread: Giants -1.5
Total: 45
Kickoff: 1:00 PM ET on Sunday, September 14
TV: FOX

The Cardinals played fantastic defense in their 18-17 Monday night win over San Diego despite failing to cover the spread as a 3-point home fave.

The Giants – and starting quarterback Eli Manning – looked as clueless as they did a year ago in their humbling 35-14 Monday night loss to Detroit as a 6.5-point road dog.

Arizona has racked up a surprisingly good 7-2-1 SU mark in its last 10 games while also going 4-1-1 ATS in its last six road dates.

NY Giants has won four of its L/6 home games and are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games against their NFC counterparts. Unfortunately, the G-Men are also just 0-5-1 ATS in its last six games in the month of September.

I like the Cards to reach the postseason after just missing out a year ago people – and they get the narrow road win here thanks to their overpowering defense.

Matchup: Atlanta Falcons at Cincinnati Bengals
Spread: Bengals -5
Total: 48
Kickoff: 1:00 PM ET on Sunday, September 14
TV: CBS

The Falcons (1-0 SU,1-0 ATS) recorded the most exciting win of Week 1 by beating New Orleans 37-34 in overtime as Matt Ryan lit up the scoreboard with a career-best passing day to help Atlanta cash in as a 3-point home dog.

Cincinnati (1-0 SU, 1-0 ATS) recorded a commanding 23-16 Week 1 win over Baltimore in their AFC North divisional battle as a 1-point road dog.

The Falcons have compiled an impressive 6-1 ATS mark in its last seven games, but the Falcons are also just 4-7-1 ATS in its last dozen road games.
 
Cincinnati is 9-1 ATS in its last 10 games at home and I like them to get the win and ATS cover at home in this one.

Matchup: Jacksonville Jaguars at Washington Redskins
Spread: Washington -4.5
Total: 44
Kickoff: 1:00 PM ET on Sunday, September 14
TV: CBS

The Jacksonville Jaguars (0-1 SU, 0-1 ATS) were on the wrong end of a 34-17 Week 1 loss to Philadelphia that looks even worse when you consider the fact that the Jas were up 17-0 at the half. The Jags failed to cover the NFL betting line as a 10-point home dog.

Washington (0-1 SU, 0-1 ATS) and starting quarterback RG3 looked mostly inept in their humbling 17-6 Week 1 road loss to Tennessee as a 3-point underdog.

Jacksonville is 1-3-1 ATS in its last five games, but somehow the Jags have managed to go 4-2 ATS in its last six road games.

Washington is 2-7 ATS in its last 9 games and an equally disappointing 3-6 ATS in its last nine home games.

If Washington wasn’t playing an equally pitiful team in this matchup, I wouldn’t back them. However, this will be one of Washington’s few wins they get in 2014.

Matchup: New England Patriots at Minnesota Vikings
Spread: Patriots -4.5
Total: 49
Kickoff: 1:00 PM ET on Sunday, September 14
TV: CBS

Believe it or not, based on what I saw in Week 1, this game could be a tricky affair.

New England (0-1 SU, 0-1 ATS) got man-handled in their stunning 33-20 Week 1 road loss to Miami as a 3.5-point road fave.

Minnesota (1-0 SU,1-0 ATS) rolled all over the teetering Rams in their 34-6 Week 1 smackdown while easily covering the NFL betting line as a 2.5-point road dog.

Now way do Tom Brady, Bill Belichick and the Patriots get off to an 0-2 start right? I don’t think so, but from the looks of it…it could happen.

Besides, New England is just 1-7 ATS in its last eight road games while Minnesota has gone 6-1 ATS in its last seven games overall.

Matchup: Detroit Lions at Carolina Panthers
Spread: Panthers -1
Total: Off
Kickoff: 1:00 PM ET on Sunday, September 14
TV: FOX

The Detroit Lions (1-0 SU, 1-0 ATS) looked fantastic in handing the Giants an emphatic 35-14 beat-down in their Week 1 Monday night matchup while easily cashing in against the NFL betting odds as a 6.5-point home favorite.

The Carolina Panthers (1-0 SU, 1-0 ATS) eked out a narrow 20-14 Week 1 win over NFC South division rival Tampa Bay to cover the spread as a 5-point road favorite.

I really like the Lions and their far more explosive offense in this contest despite the fact that Carolina is 6-1-1 ATS in its last eight home games and Detroit is just 5-15-1 ATS in its last 21 road games.

Matchup: Dallas Cowboys at Tennessee Titans
Spread: Titans -3.5
Total: 48.5
Kickoff: 1:00 PM ET on Sunday, September 14
TV: FOX

Tennessee looked great in their 26-10 Week 1 win over Kansas City as a 3-point road dog while Dallas and starting quarterback Tony Romo looked like a bunch of high schoolers in their convincing 28-17 loss to Frisco as a 3-point home dog.

Dallas is 1-5 ATS in its last 6 games and just 3-6 SU in its last nine road games. Tennessee may be just 1-4-1 ATS in its last six games, but they’re the easy pick to win and cash in here if you ask me.

Matchup: New Orleans Saints at Cleveland Browns
Spread: Saints -6.5
Total: 47.5
Kickoff: 1:00 PM ET on Sunday, September 14
TV: FOX

The Browns suffered a heartbreaking 30-27 Week 1 loss to Pittsburgh as a 5.5-point road dog while New Orleans suffered its own crushing defeat in their 37-34 overtime loss to Atlanta.

New Orleans is just 2-4 SU in its last 6 games and 2-7 ATS in its last nine road games but Cleveland is just 2-6 ATS in its last 8 games and doesn’t have the kind of offense that can keep up with Drew Brees and company in this one.

Matchup: Seattle Seahawks at San Diego Chargers
Spread: Seattle -4.5
Total: 43.5
Kickoff: 4:05 PM ET on Sunday, September 14
TV: FOX

San Diego was on the wrong end of a heartbreaking 18-17 Monday night loss to Arizona but covered the NFL betting odds as a 3-point road dog. Seattle looked as overpowering as ever in its 36-16 Week 1 home win over Green Bay as a 4.5-point home favorite on Thursday.

San Diego is 5-2 SU in its last 7 games at home, but Seattle is 9-2 ATS in its last 11 games and has the look of a team that means business right now.

Matchup: St. Louis Rams at Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Spread: Tampa Bay -4.5
Total: 38
Kickoff: 4:05 PM ET on Sunday, September 14
TV: FOX

Tampa Bay lost to Carolina 20-14 in its Week 1 NFC South divisional battle while failing to cover the spread as a 5-point home favorite, but St. Louis looked absolutely abysmal in its 34-6 loss to Minnesota as a 2.5-point home fave.

St. Louis is just 2-4 SU and ATS in its last half-dozen games and Tampa Bay is just 1-5 SU and ATS in its last six games. Still, the ‘new-look’ Bucs are the right pick here under respected head coach Lovie Smith.

Matchup: Kansas City Chiefs at Denver Broncos
Spread: Denver -12.5
Total: 52
Kickoff: 4:25 PM ET on Sunday, September 14
TV: CBS

The Broncos had to hold in after taking a huge lead in their 31-24 Week 1 win over Indianapolis but failed to cover the NFL betting line as an 8.5-point home favorite.

Kansas City looked inept on offense in its convincing 26-10 Week 1 loss to Tennessee as a 3-point home favorite.

Kansas City has lost four of its last five games while going 3-6 ATS in its last 9 games overall. 

Denver has won five of its last six games, but let it be known that Peyton Manning and company are just 1-4 ATS in its last five home games. Still, the Broncos should win this one and cover the spread with room to spare!

Good luck sports fans!

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