Week 2 NFL Betting Line Moves That You Need to Know About!Noah Williams
With the first week of the 2016 NFL regular season now a thing of the past, it’s time to turn our eyes toward Week 2 and the NFL betting line changes that you really need to know about.
To recap, underdogs had a really good week by going 8-6-2 against the spread (ATS), with a half-dozen dogs winning outright. Two games ended up as pushes with Cincinnati and the New York Giants both winning by one point as identical 1-point favorites.
Now, let’s get on with the most important stuff – Week 2 and the betting line changes that matter most.
First and foremost, if you didn’t know before, each and every week, nearly every NFL advance betting line is taken down on Sunday mornings and odds for each week’s following games are posted after the day’s action (usually around 5 PM ET).
If the two teams involved in the following week’s matchup perform ‘as expected’ that game’s line will remain mostly unchanged.
If one team wins and the other loses, the line will generally (but not always) move toward the team with the victory. Huge lopsided affairs will result in the line moving even more toward whichever team had the more commanding victory – or bigger loss.
The SportBet.com Sportsbook posts its odds on all NFL games during the aforementioned period (including the teams playing that Sunday and Monday night, while most sportsbooks keep those late games off the board).
Of course, any significant injuries, like those suffered by Cleveland’s RG3 and Seattle’s Russell Wilson in Week 1 will be taken into account when oddsmakers learn about the severity of each injury and whether said players will be on the field the following week.
Okay, let’s look at the opening line moves for Week 2.
Week 2 NFL Betting Line Moves That You Need to Know About!
New York Jets at Buffalo Bills – PK
The SportBet.com advance line had the Bills as 3-point home faves and after both teams suffered opening week losses, the line remained largely unmoved though some other sportsbooks listed the Bills as 2.5-point favorites. Of course, news that oft-injured Bills wide receiver Sammy Watkins could potentially miss this affair has many sportsbooks moving the line toward a Pick ‘Em.
Kansas City Chiefs at Houston Texans (-2.5)
The Texans were 1.5-point home favorites on the advance line, but after the Chiefs struggled more than the Texans did in Week 1, the NFL betting line moved a modest half-point toward Houston before moving again to the now 2.5-point spread it currently is.
Miami Dolphins at New England Patriots (-6.5)
The Patriots were initially a 5.5-point home favorite on the advance line, but the Pats have seen the line move a full point in their favor after they man-handled Arizona and Miami struggled to score in a narrow loss against Seattle, although the Fins played terrific defense in falling to Seattle.
Baltimore Ravens (-6.5) at Cleveland Browns
Baltimore was initially a 3.5-point road favorite on the advance line, but that spread has moved significantly – and rightfully so after the Browns unfurled a clunker against Philadelphia and saw their starting quarterback lost for at least the next two months. Now with veteran Josh McCown under center, Cleveland is a nearly touchdown home dog, though I suspect Cleveland will actually play better without RG3.
Cincinnati Bengals at Pittsburgh Steelers (-3.5)
The Steelers were a 3.5-point home fave on the advance line and that has remained unchanged with both, the Steelers and Bengals recording wins in Week 1. Of course, this spread could potentially move once again if more bettors start backing the Steelers because of their 38-16 blowout win over the Washington Redskins.
Dallas Cowboys at Washington Redskins (-3.5)
The Redskins were initially a 3.5-point home favorite and strangely enough, the line has remained unchanged even though the ‘Boys had a fine showing in losing to the Giants 20-19 and Washington got spanked unmercifully by the Steelers. Right now, I’m expecting this line to move toward the Cowboys with the way Washington performed on Monday night.
New Orleans Saints at New York Giants (N) (-5.5)
The Giants were originally 4.5-point home favorites on the advance line, but the odds have moved slightly to -5 in the SportBet.com sportsbook after the Saints lost to Oakland at home and the G-Men got the narrow road win.
CG Technology listed the Giants as a surprising -6 home fave, but the spread has settled on 5.5 at most books.
San Francisco 49ers at Carolina Panthers (-14)
The advance line had Carolina as a 13.5-point home favorite and it has somehow moved to 14 points even though the Panthers got beat by Denver on Thursday night and San Francisco rolled all over the clueless Rams. I suspect that this line will move even more once bettors that were impressed by the Niners’ commanding win start putting some money behind their beliefs.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Arizona Cardinals (-6.5)
The advance line had the Cardinals as an 8.5-point home favorite, but that has changed after the Cards underachieved in their home loss against a Tom Brady-less New England Patriots squad and Tampa Bay rolled all over the Falcons in their NFC South divisional battle.
Seattle Seahawks (OFF) at Los Angeles Rams
The advance line had Seattle as a 4.5-point home fave, before moving to 3.5 points (why?) and eventually being taken off the board because of Russell Wilson’s ankle injury. The way L.A. looked on Monday night, I suspect a really good high school team could cover as a 4.5-point favorite.
Indianapolis Colts at Denver Broncos (-6)
The advance line had the Broncos as 3.5-point home faves, but is has risen with the Broncos managing to beat Carolina on Thursday night and the Colts falling apart late against Matthew Stafford and the Lions.
The SportBet.com sportsbook increased it to Denver -4 while CG Technology went with the Broncos as a 5.5-point favorite. Right now, almost every sportsbook has Denver listed as a 6-point home fave, though I think the advance line is actually closer to what it should be.
Atlanta Falcons at Oakland Raiders (-5.5)
The Raiders were a 4.5-point home favorite on the advance line after they beat New Orleans on the last play of regulation and the Falcons lost at home to Tampa Bay.
SportBet.com moved the line to Oakland -6.5 while several other sportsbooks featuring Oakland between 4.5 and 5.5 points.
Jacksonville Jaguars at San Diego Chargers (-3, -120)
The Chargers were initially a 3-point home favorite on the advance line and have alternated between 2.5 and 3.0 points after they fell apart in the second half against Kansas City and Jacksonville gave Green Bay a very tough way to go. Strangely enough, the Chargers remain a 3-point home fave despite losing star wide receiver Keenan Allen for the season with a torn ACL.
Green Bay Packers (-2.5) at Minnesota Vikings
The advance line was originally a Pick ‘Em, but the Packers have moved to 2.5-point road faves after the Vikings lost starting quarterback Teddy Bridgewater and struggled to out away lowly Tennessee for a half. After both teams won on Sunday, Green Bay was listed as a 1.5-point favorite in the SportBet.com sportsbook, but have alternated between 2.5-3.0 points since.
Philadelphia at Chicago (-3, -120)
The advance line had the Bears as a 3-point home favorite and the SportBet.com sportsbook moved the line to 2.5 points after Philly spanked the overmatched Browns and Chicago lost. However, with both, William Hill and Boyd Gaming books in Vegas listing the Bears as a 3-point fave, SportBet.com has as well.
So, there you have it, the Week 2 NFL line moves that really matter. Happy Hunting!