NFL Week 4 Expert PicksJosh Bailey
Can Cam Newton play better to help Carolina win on the road against a New England Patriots team that has watched Tom Brady light up the scoreboard the last two weeks?
Will Philip Rivers and the Los Angeles Chargers ‘show up’ to beat a competitive Philadelphia Eagles team in their Week 4 Inter-conference clash despite losing all three of their games this season?
Last, but certainly not least, who’s going to bring home the bacon when the Denver Broncos host the Oakland Raiders in one of their two annual AFC West divisional clashes?
As usual, if you’ve got questions, then I’ve got answers! Now, let’s get started with my trio of Week 4 NFL expert picks.
NFL Week 4 Expert Picks
Carolina at New England
When: Sunday, October 1, 2017 at 1:00 PM ET
Where: Gillette Stadium, Foxborough, Massachusetts
NFL Odds: New England -8.5
Analysis: Cam Newton is apparently regressing faster than my hairline (no lie) while Tom Brady is throwing touchdown passes like a spry 25-year-old with the vast majority of his future in front of him. Carolina might be 2-1, but they haven’t looked very good all season if you ask me and played awful football in their 34-13 smackdown loss against New Orleans this past weekend.
The 8.5-point spread for this contest might look a bit high for New England, but I’m fully expecting Tom Brady and the Pats to simply outscore an offensively-challenged Panthers team that is averaging just 15.0 points per game (28th) to get the convincing home win and ATS cover as near double-digit home faves.
Not only has Brady tossed a whopping eight touchdown passes the last two weeks, but the Patriots have gone a perfect 7-0 ATS in their last 7 games following an ATS win, an equally unblemished 6-0 ATS in their last six games against a team with a winning record and an insanely impressive 26-10-2 ATS in their last 38 home games. If you can’t score, it’s kind of hard to beat Tom Brady and company and right now, the Panthers are having huge problems trying to get into the end zone.
Expert Pick Week 4: New England -8.5
Oakland at Denver
When: Sunday, October 1, 2017 at 4:25 PM ET
Where: Sports Authority Field, Denver, Colorado
NFL Odds: Denver -1
Analysis: The Broncos and Raiders both suffered surprising losses in Week 3 as Denver lost at Buffalo 26-16 and Oakland got smacked around by Washington in the nation’s capital. However, for me, Denver is the right pick to win and cover the spread in their Week 4 AFC West divisional showdown because they have the far better defense.
The Broncos have been pretty solid In averaging 27.3 points per game (eighth) so far behind Trevor Siemian to rank one spot better than Derek Carr and company in scoring (27.0 ppg). While Denver is allowing 21.3 points per contest (15th) to Oakland’s 21.0 points per game allowed (13th),
I know Denver has lost two of their last three meetings against the Raiders, but they spanked the Raiders 24-6 at home late last season and I believe they’re going to go out with the mindset of doing anything necessary to get the important home win in this divisional matchup.
Oakland has gone 1-3-1 ATS in their last five road games against the Broncos and just 2-8-1 ATS in their last 11 games against the Broncos overall. More importantly, with both teams coming off ugly losses in Week 3 I think the simple play here is to back the home team as less than field goal favorites. Denver wins in a thriller to cover the NFL betting line.
Expert Pick Week 4: Denver -1
Philadelphia at L.A. Chargers
When: Sunday, October 1, 2017 at 4:05 PM ET
Where: StubHub Center, Carson, California
NFL Odds: Philadelphia -1
Analysis: After losing their first two games of the season in heartbreaking, but competitive, fashion, Philip Rivers and the L.A. Chargers got completely overpowered in their 24-10 Week 3 home loss to Kansas City. More importantly, the Bolts have had trouble scoring the ball in putting just 27 combined points on the board the last two weeks and rank an uninspiring 26th in scoring right now (16.0 ppg) while also ranking a modest 17th in points allowed (22.3 ppg).
The Philadelphia Eagles, on the other hand, have played some pretty inspiring football in all three of their games and clearly never gave up in their stunning 27-24 Week 3 home win over the Giants on rookie Jake Elliott’s massive, 61-yard game-winning field goal as time expired. The Birds are ranked a solid 10th in scoring (25.7 ppg) under the direction of second-year signal-caller Carson Wentz despite ranking a modest 20th in points allowed (22.7 ppg).
Maybe it’s me, but right now, I’m thinking Carson Wentz and the Philadelphia Eagles are the easy pick to get the upset road win and ATS cover after seeing how both of these teams have played through three weeks. The Chargers have gone a discouraging 5-17 ATS in their last 22 home games, 0-5-1 ATS in their last 6 games following a straight-up loss and 0-6-1 ATS in their last 7 games overall. The Eagles are a near-perfect 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games and as I wrote a week ago, Philip Rivers and the Chargers seemingly keep finding new ways to lose games. I like Philly to cover the chalk by winning outright.