Week 4 MNF Free Betting Line Pick – New England at Kansas CityNoah Williams
New England is 2 and 1 straight up on the season, but their last victory, a 16 to 9 snorer over Oakland at home, may not have set them up for what they face on Monday night.
Kansas City, in desperate need of a victory, marched into Miami and dominated the team that Marino built 35 to 14. Even without their top running back, KC looked almost impossible to stop in the gargantuan beat down. Now, they face a road favorite in New England on Monday night. Can KC keep it going? Will the real New England stand up in this contest?
New England Patriots at Kansas City Chiefs
When: Sept. 29, 8:30 pm ET
Where: Arrowhead Stadium, Kansas City, MO
Betting Odds: New England -3.5, Total 45
MNF Free Betting Line Pick Analysis– Patriots Vs. Chiefs
The Patriots have dominated in recent meetings. New England is a terrific 6 and 2 against the spread in the last 8 meetings between these two teams. The Pats are also 7 and 0 ATS in the last 7 games in Week 4. Week 4 is usually when the real New England Patriots step it up, but that might not happen this year.
New England’s biggest issue is that their offense is atrocious. It looks like QB Tom Brady has lost a step. Brady has thrown for only 362 yards and 3 TD passes this season. Granted, he hasn’t thrown a pick, but he’s completing less than 60% of his passes. That’s more Tony Eason-like than Drew Bledsoe-like, two other Super Bowl participating Patriot quarterbacks, and not good news to New England fans.
Tom Brady came to Robert Kraft's rescue with some high five support this morning. pic.twitter.com/onx8ha8Apk
— SportsCenter (@SportsCenter) September 23, 2014
New England’s defense is ranked third in the NFL and it should do well against Kansas City, but the Chiefs’ top player, one of the best in the league, Jamal Charles, returns on Monday night. Charles can flat out dominate games. He’s the best pass catching running back in the league. Even when he’s not at 100%, Coach Andy Reid’s schemes are so effective that his back-up, Knile Davis, can pummel teams into the ground.
Davis destroyed Miami with over 130 yards rushing. He and Charles won’t be as effective against the Patriots on Monday night, but they may not have to if QB Alex Smith is as efficient as he was against the Dolphins. Smith displayed the type of control reserved for guys named Kershaw and Greinke in the Week 3 victory.
— Kansas City Chiefs (@KCChiefs) September 24, 2014
Alex Smith is never flashy but when he’s doing his Troy Aikman impersonation, the Cheifs are very tough to beat. Smith only threw for 186 yards against Miami, but he tossed 3 touchdowns and completed 76% of his passes. He was absolutely incredible. His QB rating ended up at 136. All the man does is control the clock and win games.
The Chiefs are 0 and 6 ATS in their last 6 home games and 1 and 4 ATS in their last 5 home games versus a team with a winning record, but we’re getting points on Kansas City. Road favorites just haven’t covered as well as one would like so far this NFL Season, and the Chiefs go into this game with a ton of momentum. They’re the pick.