The undefeated Kansas City Chiefs will look to remain unbeaten when they square off against the Oakland Raiders in an AFC West week 6 NFL betting showdown while the surprising Buffalo Bills and Cincinnati Bengals, will both look to take another positive step forward in their own Week 6 matchup.
These two contests highlight this expert trio of free Week 6 NFL picks,so with game day quickly approaching, it’s time to get busy.
Oakland at Kansas City 1:00 PM ET
Kansas City -9.5
The Oakland Raiders (2-3 SU, 4-1 ATS) got a very nice 27-17 ‘upset’ win over San Diego in their AFC West matchup last weekend to cash in as a 5.5-point home dog and snap a two-game SU losing streak.
Second-year quarterback Terrelle Pryor continued his surprising maturation process by completing 18 of 23 passes for 221 yards with two TD’s and no picks. More importantly, the Raiders harassed Bolts’ quarterback Philip Rivers into three interceptions, including one by sure-fire Hall of Famer Charles Woodson that he took back to the house to tie the NFL career record for most defensive touchdowns in a career.
Despite their fine performance from a week ago, the Raiders will still have their hands seriously full with the red-hot Kansas City Chiefs (5-0 SU, 4-1 ATS) when they battle at Arrowhead Stadium on Sunday.
The Chiefs had a fight on their hands last week but still managed to get the road win and ATS cover as a 2.5-point road favorite by taking out the Tennessee Titans 26-17 behind some strong defense and just enough rushing from underrated back Jamaal Charles (108 yards, 22 carries).
Now…let’s move on to my analysis on this Week 6 contest.
Analysis: The Raiders burned me a week ago, in a contest that I thought the underachieving Chargers would win outright on the road, but I remain unperturbed.
I’m coming back this week with another pick against the Raiders, seeing as how Kansas City has lost three straight to their hated divisional rivals, but is nowhere near the same team that lost those contests.
Now, the Chiefs look very competent on both sides of the ball with quarterback Alex Smith rarely turning the ball over and the Chiefs’ defense limiting their opponents to a paltry 11.6 points per game (1st).
I’m not real fond of the point spread in this matchup but NFL gamblers should know that four of the last five meetings between these longtime rivals has been decided by double digits.
Kansas City wins and narrowly covers the spread by forcing Pryor into at least a couple of mistakes while getting another virtually error-free performance from Alex Smith.
Despite the majority of odds that show a likely Raiders cover, Oakland is just 1-3-2 ATS in their L/6 games against a team with a winning record and 1-5-1 ATS in their L/7 games following an SU win.
I like the Chiefs to ‘handle their business’ in this one and get the narrow ATS cover.
The Pick: Kansas City -9.5 Points
Cincinnati at Buffalo 1:00 PM ET
The Buffalo Bills (2-3 SU, 3-2 ATS) are off to a very positive start under mature rookie quarterback E.J. Manuel, but they look like they’re going to be in trouble when they take on the Cincinnati Bengals (3-2 SU, 3-1-1 ATS) in this Week 6 showdown.
Buffalo is coming off a humbling 37-24 loss to Cleveland in Week 5 as a 3.5-point road dog in which Manuel injured his knee. Now, the Bills are going to turn to young signal-caller Jeff Tuel, but clearly, he’s no Manuel.
Analysis: The Bengals put the clamps on Tom Brady and the New England Patriots in their convincing 13-6 win over the Pats. Cincinnati cashed in as a 1-point home dog to improve to a bankroll-boosting 3-1-1 ATS on the season and I believe they’re going to do so again in this contest, particularly with Buffalo being without its starting quarterback.
Cincinnati is 5-1 ATS in its L/6 games versus a team with a losing record and 7-2 ATS in its L/9 games against teams from the AFC. Back the blossoming Cincinnati Bengals to win going away as they look to take another step toward winning the competitive AFC North this season.
The Pick: Cincinnati Bengals -5.5 Points
St. Louis at Houston 1:00 PM ET
The St. Louis Rams (2-3 SU, 1-4 ATS) snapped their three-game SU and ATS losing streaks by doing what everyone does these days…beat the pathetic Jacksonville Jaguars.
The Houston Texans (2-3 SU, 0-5 ATS) had AFC title hopes coming into the 2013 regular season, but they’ve looked nothing like a legitimate threat in dropping each of their last three games, all in horrific fashion.
Now, these two desperate teams will go all out to get the much-needed SU win inn this Week 6 thriller.
St. Louis is coming off a commanding 34-20 win over lowly Jacksonville in Week 5, but I’m not very impressed because of the opponent they played. Still, St. Louis managed to cover the spread as a 12.5-point home favorite to halt a four-game ATS skid.
Houston keeps finding new ways to lose and looked pretty pathetic in their 34-3 Week 5 loss to Frisco as a 4-point road dog, falling to a dismal 0-5 ATS on the season. Veteran quarterback Matt Schaub has struggled mightily the last few weeks and tossed three interceptions a week ago, including one that was returned 18 yards for a pick six.
Analysis: I know the Houston Texans – and quarterback Matt Schaub in particular – have looked almost inept the last three weeks, but I really like the Texans to win this contest easily and cover the spread against a St. Louis Rams team that isn’t very good this season.
These two teams have identical 2-3 SU records, but the fact of the matter is that there is nothing equal about these two franchises, no matter how much the Texans have struggled recently.
The Texans are the better team, they’re playing at home and they’re seriously desperate and that’s reason enough for me to back them.
The Pick: Houston Texans -7.5 Points